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Mesoscale Discussion 102
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0102
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1132 AM CST Thu Mar 01 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of southeastern Lower MI...far
   northeastern IN...and northwestern OH

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 011732Z - 012330Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate rain will quickly transition to moderate/heavy
   snow this afternoon. Snowfall rates should exceed 1 inch per hour,
   and could be locally 2+ inches per hour in the most intense band.

   DISCUSSION...An area of generally light to moderate rain mixed with
   some snow and sleet is ongoing across much of southern Lower MI,
   northern/central IN, and northern OH as of 1730Z. Strong low-level
   frontogenesis is occurring across this region as a mid/upper-level
   trough moves eastward across the OH Valley. The 12Z sounding from
   DTX and RAP forecast soundings show a nearly saturated profile
   through the troposphere. As the mid/upper-level cyclone matures
   later this afternoon, both low-level cold air advection and dynamic
   cooling are forecast to markedly increase, which will support a
   quick transition from rain to snow, even though surface temperatures
   may remain in the 32-34 degree F range.

   Given the strength of low-level frontogenesis and robust lift
   expected though the saturated dendritic growth layer, snowfall rates
   should exceed 1 inch per hour (locally 2+ inches per hour) for a few
   hours this afternoon within the primary heavy snow band. A consensus
   of short-term, high-resolution guidance suggests this band will
   likely consolidate in a southwest-to-northeast orientation across
   southeastern Lower MI and far northwestern OH this afternoon into
   early evening. A few recent sleet and rain/snow mix observations
   from surface stations and mPING reports suggest the transition to
   snow is already occurring, and this changeover to snow will continue
   over the next few hours.

   ..Gleason.. 03/01/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42608495 42878424 42928324 42828239 42588245 42248277
               41978286 41808245 41528223 41228256 41108323 41188419
               41568506 41968531 42608495 

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