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Mesoscale Discussion 104
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0104
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0743 PM CST Thu Mar 01 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of northeast OH...northwest PA...and
   western NY

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 020143Z - 020745Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate/heavy is expected overnight. Snowfall rates of 1+
   inch per hour are expected, with localized rates in excess of 2
   inches in the most intense snow bands.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a surface low progressing
   eastward/northeastward near Pittsburgh, PA. Meanwhile, satellite
   imagery indicates northern/southern stream phasing currently
   underway over Ohio, with mid-level trough becoming negatively tilted
   over the area. As this occurs, strong deep layer ascent associated
   with intense frontogenetical forcing and a coupled upper-level jet
   structure is expected to promote strong lift through a saturated
   dendritic growth layer. Snowfall rates of 1+ inch per hour will be
   common across the MCD area, with localized rates in excess of 2
   inches per hour in the strongest bands. Snowfall rates are expected
   to decrease in intensity late tonight as the surface low progresses
   east of the area and deep layer ascent diminishes. 

   While rain is currently being observed across southern portions of
   the MCD area, strong low-level cold air advection and dynamic
   cooling is expected to increase tonight as the center of the surface
   low progresses just south of the area. This will lead to a rapid
   transition from rain to moderate/heavy snowfall near 0600Z.

   ..Elliott.. 03/02/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   42497935 42777895 43127916 43307903 43437792 43207736
               42917730 42447729 42137737 41807764 41627815 41527865
               41437929 41358004 41378087 41548136 41798128 42078026
               42497935 

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Page last modified: March 02, 2018
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