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Mesoscale Discussion 1
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 AM CST WED JAN 06 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SOUTHERN CA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 061732Z - 062030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM-RELATED WIND
   DAMAGE AND A FUNNEL/BRIEF TORNADO RISK IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY
   INCREASE/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
   ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CA AND OFFSHORE AREAS.

   DISCUSSION...CONSISTENT WITH MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
   LATEST RADAR/LIGHTNING DATA...AN OFFSHORE PLUME OF STEEPENING
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATED MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
   DEVELOP INLAND ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CA NEAR/BEHIND AN
   INLAND-SPREADING FRONTAL BAND. NEAR/BEHIND THE FRONT...DIURNALLY
   STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEARING 50 F WILL
   SUPPORT INCREASINGLY STOUT LOW-TOPPED UPDRAFTS BY AFTERNOON WITH 0-3
   KM CAPE REACHING/EXCEEDING 100 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF GRADUALLY
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THIS SCENARIO
   WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEMI-DISCRETE MINI-SUPERCELLS
   AS WELL AS MORE PREVALENT INLAND-SPREADING SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
   ACCORDINGLY...LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND A FUNNEL CLOUD/BRIEF TORNADO
   RISK SHOULD INCREASE BY MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON /MOST LIKELY
   PEAKING IN THE 19-23Z TIME FRAME/ FOR NEAR-COASTAL/OFFSHORE AREAS OF
   SOUTHERN CA.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 01/06/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...

   LAT...LON   34722041 34611960 34391812 33971753 33591725 33041742
               32861852 33261979 34042059 34722041 

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Page last modified: January 06, 2016
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