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Mesoscale Discussion 1
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0001
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0544 PM CST Sun Jan 01 2017

   Areas affected...Southern AL...southwest GA...and the FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 012344Z - 020215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will persist this evening, with a
   brief/weak tornado possible along the warm front. However, overall
   storm organization and intensity is not expected to warrant a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered storms persist in a weak warm advection zone
   from LA across southern AL, MS, GA and the FL Panhandle. Storms are
   focused mainly along the warm front, which is not moving very fast.
   Flow aloft remains southwesterly and without much of an impetus for
   large-scale lift, with only minor disturbances in the flow. However,
   the air mass south of the front is very moist, and contributing to
   sufficient CAPE to support small supercells mainly along the warm
   front where low-level SRH is maximized at 200-250 m2/s2. Given only
   slow movement of the front, and little else changing aloft this
   evening, isolated cells may exhibit rotation whilst crossing the
   warm front, with a brief/weak tornado the primary threat.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 01/01/2017


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30858607 31148723 30948801 30728838 30908868 31668861
               32198718 32178576 31988469 31498401 30858416 30498453
               30858607 

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Page last modified: January 02, 2017
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