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Mesoscale Discussion 1
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0945 PM CST WED DEC 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 010345Z - 010945Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH
   CENTRAL TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL RANGE
   FROM .05 TO .10 INCH PER HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
   WILL SHIFT EAST INTO AZ DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  IN RESPONSE TO
   THIS FEATURE...LOW-LEVEL JET IS BEGINNING TO RESPOND OVER SOUTH TX. 
   LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE/VWP DATA SUGGESTS 30-40KT LLJ WILL
   FOCUS WARM ADVECTION/ASCENT ALONG A SW-NE CORRIDOR FROM THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU...NEWD TOWARD THE METROPLEX.  PRIMARY ICING CONDITIONS WILL
   BE WEST OF I-35 WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS ARE WELL BELOW
   FREEZING.  OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS A NARROW BAND OF
   CONVECTION...ROUGHLY 30 MI WIDE...HAS ELONGATED ITSELF FROM PECOS
   COUNTY...THROUGH NRN TOM GREEN COUNTY...INTO EASTLAND COUNTY.  WHILE
   MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS FREEZING RAIN...SLEET IS OCCURRING
   ACROSS THE NWRN FRINGE...ESPECIALLY AROUND ABI WHERE SFC
   TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 20F AND SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER IS DEEPER.
   LATEST THINKING IS SIGNIFICANT ICING SHOULD BE NOTED ALONG THIS
   CORRIDOR WITH PRECIPITATION/ICING EVENTUALLY SPREADING/DEVELOPING
   NORTH OF THE METROPLEX.  LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
   BE MORE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY.

   ..DARROW.. 01/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30960246 32010075 32879975 33779783 33709670 32619726
               32019790 31269947 30260184 30960246 

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Page last modified: January 01, 2015
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