Mesoscale Discussion 0001
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0544 PM CST Sun Jan 01 2017
Areas affected...Southern AL...southwest GA...and the FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 012344Z - 020215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will persist this evening, with a
brief/weak tornado possible along the warm front. However, overall
storm organization and intensity is not expected to warrant a watch.
DISCUSSION...Scattered storms persist in a weak warm advection zone
from LA across southern AL, MS, GA and the FL Panhandle. Storms are
focused mainly along the warm front, which is not moving very fast.
Flow aloft remains southwesterly and without much of an impetus for
large-scale lift, with only minor disturbances in the flow. However,
the air mass south of the front is very moist, and contributing to
sufficient CAPE to support small supercells mainly along the warm
front where low-level SRH is maximized at 200-250 m2/s2. Given only
slow movement of the front, and little else changing aloft this
evening, isolated cells may exhibit rotation whilst crossing the
warm front, with a brief/weak tornado the primary threat.
LAT...LON 30858607 31148723 30948801 30728838 30908868 31668861
32198718 32178576 31988469 31498401 30858416 30498453