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Mesoscale Discussion 2
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0432 PM CST WED JAN 06 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF COASTAL SRN CA INCLUDING THE SAN
   DIEGO AREA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 062232Z - 070000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SMALL BOWING QLCS SEGMENT IS APPROACHING THE SAN DIEGO
   COUNTY COAST FROM THE COASTAL WATERS. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ONSHORE
   IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OR TWO MAY OCCUR.
   HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...WSR-88D LOOPS INDICATE A SMALL QLCS WITH AN EMBEDDED
   BOWING COMPONENT OFF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST ADVANCING ESEWD
   AROUND 25-30 KT...WITH A LEADING ROTATING CELL NEARING THE COAST.
   THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST AND AFFECT AREAS NEAR
   AND N OF SAN DIEGO IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO -- ESPECIALLY IN THE
   2245-2330 UTC TIME FRAME. THE NKX VWP SAMPLES AMPLE
   LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH AROUND 55 KT OF 0-6-KM
   BULK SHEAR AND 20 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
   VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE. THE OVERALL DEARTH OF BUOYANCY WILL
   MITIGATE ANY MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SVR RISK. HOWEVER...SFC
   OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOWER 50S/...WHEN COUPLED WITH SCATTERED CG LIGHTNING...TO WARRANT
   SOME CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED SVR RISK TO AFFECT COASTAL SAN DIEGO
   COUNTY AND AREAS JUST ONSHORE. A DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO...OR PERHAPS
   A BRIEF TORNADO...CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS ADDRESSED IN PREVIOUSLY
   ISSUED MCD 0001...THE SVR RISK IS PEAKING PRESENTLY...AND SHOULD BE
   DECEASING AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INLAND BY
   ABOUT 20 MILES BECOMING REMOVED FROM MOISTER/MARITIME AIR.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 01/06/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGX...

   LAT...LON   32501710 32881721 33141737 33181718 32961694 32661688
               32491695 32501710 

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Page last modified: January 07, 2016
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