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Mesoscale Discussion 3
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 PM CST THU JAN 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...BIG BEND TO NW TX

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 020546Z - 020945Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL FOCUS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE BIG
   BEND OF TX...NEWD TO NEAR ABI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ICING WILL
   BE HEAVIEST WITHIN STRONGER CONVECTION...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 0.10
   INCH PER HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE FORCING APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS FAR
   WEST TX...PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.  A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
   CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED FROM PECOS COUNTY...NEWD TO TAYLOR COUNTY AND
   THIS BAND APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. 
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED ALONG THIS ZONE AND GIVEN THE
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE CERTAINLY
   POSSIBLE.  NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 800MB
   MAY YIELD 300+J/KG MUCAPE AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CERTAINLY BE
   NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  LATEST THINKING IS THIS BAND OF
   CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS IT SPREADS NEWD INTO THE
   BIG COUNTRY NEAR ABI.  SFC TEMPERATURES ARE NOTABLY COOLER ACROSS
   THIS REGION WITH READINGS MOSTLY BETWEEN 26-29F.  FOR THIS REASON IT
   APPEARS SIGNIFICANT ICING WITH RATES APPROACHING 0.10 INCH PER HOUR
   ARE POSSIBLE.

   ..DARROW.. 01/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30530354 33309995 33229896 32209945 31020097 29810298
               30530354 

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Page last modified: January 02, 2015
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