MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0732 AM CST SAT JAN 03 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX AND SRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 031332Z - 031500Z
   
   A WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN LA BY MID MORNING.
   
   WV IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF HOU
   AT 13Z. THE CURRENT MOTION IS ENEWD AT 40 KT...WHICH PLACES THE
   SYSTEM IN CENTRAL LA NEAR ESF AROUND 18Z. DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE
   MID/UPPER 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG...DPVA APPEARS TO BE
   SPREADING EAST OF SERN TX AND FAR SWRN LA...WITH LESSENING CHANCES
   FOR STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. STORM PROBABILITIES APPEAR HIGHER
   ACROSS SRN LA...AS STORMS ABOUT 65 SE OF LCH...SHIFT NEWD INTO SRN
   LA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS THUS FAR HAVE
   NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS
   THEY BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT
   BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ONLY AT 30-40 KT.
   HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR AND THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE/BRIEF TORNADO IS
   POSSIBLE...THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND 7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WOULD BE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..IMY.. 01/03/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   LAT...LON   29058928 29089140 29729325 31089275 31039181 30938983
               29058928