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Mesoscale Discussion 3
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0003
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0104 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of central and east TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 020704Z - 020830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds should
   continue to increase over the next hour or two, and severe
   thunderstorm watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...As an upper trough over the southern High Plains ejects
   eastward, an increase in convection has been noted over the past
   several hours along and just behind a Pacific cold front. These
   thunderstorms will encounter an increasingly moist and unstable
   airmass as they continue move eastward into parts of central and
   east TX overnight. Better Low-level moisture characterized by
   surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s is present along and east of
   the I-35 corridor in TX. Strong mid-level flow around 40-50 kt
   associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will be more than
   sufficient to support supercell structures with the initial
   activity. The linear nature of the front suggests that convection
   will likely consolidate into a line with time, and this scenario is
   well-supported by various convection-allowing model guidance.
   Therefore, damaging winds should become the main threat as the line
   of storms approaches the I-35 corridor. With low-level flow forecast
   to increase through the early morning hours across the Mesoscale
   Discussion area, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out either with
   the line, or with any discrete development within the open warm
   sector ahead of the line. Due to the overall severe threat expected
   to increase over the next hour or two, a severe thunderstorm watch
   will likely be issued.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 01/02/2017


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29569932 30280035 30940024 32639953 33209905 33439794
               33629681 33629568 32859548 30599559 29499658 29249824
               29569932 

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Page last modified: January 02, 2017
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