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Mesoscale Discussion 3
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0535 PM CST WED JAN 06 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 062335Z - 070100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES EVOLVING WITHIN A N/S BAND OF
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION E/NE OF A SFC MESO-LOW ANALYZED NEAR ALICE
   TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY PRIMARILY ELEVATED...AS VIS SATELLITE
   IMAGERY EARLIER SUGGESTED AGITATED/GLACIATING CUMULUS EVOLVING ATOP
   LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A HIGH-LEVEL
   JET STREAK OVERLYING THE AREA IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
   ASSOCIATED VERTICAL CIRCULATION RELATED TO THE EXIT REGION OF THIS
   JET STREAK SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOSTER LOW-LEVEL POLEWARD FLUXES OF
   MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE. THE CRP VWP INDICATES 40-50 KT OF MID-LEVEL
   WSWLYS ABOVE A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE THAT COULD CONTINUE
   TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...AS EVIDENT WITH A CELL OVER NRN
   SAN PATRICIO COUNTY. OTHER CELLS EVOLVING ALONG THE WARM ADVECTION
   PLUME FARTHER S MAY MATURE/INTENSIFY. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH OVERALL WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   TEND TO LIMIT THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. ALSO...LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVERALL...PRECLUDING ANY MORE THAN AN
   ISOLATED SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 01/06/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...

   LAT...LON   27509762 27779764 28179717 28109691 27679722 27489741
               27509762 

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Page last modified: January 07, 2016
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