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Mesoscale Discussion 4
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0004
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0942 AM CST SUN JAN 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL MO INTO SCNTRL THROUGH NERN IL...CNTRL AND
   NRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 051542Z - 052045Z

   SUMMARY...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH
   THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SRN GREAT LAKES FROM ECNTRL MO THROUGH CNTRL
   AND NERN IL INTO CNTRL AND NRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI. SNOWFALL RATES
   LOCALLY UP TO 1-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE
   AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT /DEMARCATING THE
   LEADING EDGE OF AN INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR/ EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE
   LOW IN NERN AR THROUGH SERN MO...SRN IL...NRN IND AND SERN LOWER MI.
   THE SFC LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD ALONG THE
   FRONT...REACHING THE OH VALLEY LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING
   WITHIN EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE
   SYNOPTIC TROUGH. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 70 KT
   ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...LIKELY AUGMENTING FRONTOGENETIC
   FORCING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM
   CNTRL MO NEWD INTO SRN LOWER MI. SUB-ZERO VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
   PROFILES NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE SNOW WITH RATES AUGMENTED
   BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND LOW STATIC STABILITY IN THE 700-500 MB
   LAYER. RATES COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER
   BANDS.

   ..DIAL.. 01/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   41188494 39838648 37449038 37759215 42178669 42598480
               41188494 

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Page last modified: January 05, 2014
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