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Mesoscale Discussion 4
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0004
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 AM CST FRI JAN 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX...NW TX...FAR SW OK

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 020956Z - 021600Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG A
   CORRIDOR FROM NEAR MIDLAND AND LUBBOCK NEWD TO THE VICINITY OF
   VERNON TX EXTENDING INTO FAR SW OK. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF A TENTH
   OF AN INCH PER HOUR APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
   OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   SRN PLAINS. A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS ANALYZED FROM THE BIG
   BEND NEWD INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS BAND OF ASCENT IS
   FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN A
   NWD MOVEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ONGOING FROM NEAR MIDLAND NEWD TO
   SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS. SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE MCD AREA RANGE FROM THE
   MID 20S F NEAR MIDLAND TO AROUND 32 F IN FAR SW OK. THIS SUBFREEZING
   AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH DAYBREAK AS PRECIPITATION
   MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE 06Z NAM MODEL SUGGESTS THAT FREEZING
   RAIN WILL BE THE HEAVIEST IN AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LUBBOCK
   EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WEST TX. FREEZING-RAIN RATES SHOULD REACH A
   TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN MANY AREAS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR CAUSING
   SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICING ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z. FREEZING-RAIN
   RATES MAY ALSO REACH A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN NW TX AND FAR SW
   OK WHERE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 01/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   34879923 34479879 33889873 33299939 32160124 31330285
               32420327 33790183 34800002 34879923 

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Page last modified: January 02, 2015
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