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Mesoscale Discussion 4
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0004
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of far east TX...LA...and far southwestern MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 020806Z - 021000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal threat for a strong winds, hail, and a brief
   tornado may exist through the early overnight hours (10Z). This
   threat should remain too isolated to warrant watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Generally elevated convection has developed across
   southern and eastern LA along and south of a warm front in response
   to strengthening southerly low-level warm air advection. Surface
   dewpoints range from 63-69 degrees F across the discussion area,
   with even richer low-level moisture just offshore. RAP/HRRR forecast
   soundings suggest this convection may remain slightly elevated over
   the next several hours given poor low-level rates and surface
   temperatures at or near the dewpoint. Regardless, a low-level jet is
   forecast to strengthen to around 35-40 kt through 10-12Z, and there
   is some low potential for this convection to become surface-based as
   it moves northward with the advancing warm front.

   In addition, strengthening mid-level winds and ascent with the
   approach of a shortwave trough from the west may encourage some
   increase in updraft strength with time. Enlarged low-level
   hodographs would conditionally support a brief/isolated tornado risk
   if a storm could become surface-based, and a strong wind gust or two
   may occur. Per latest radar trends, hail approaching severe levels
   could also occur with MUCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg and
   sufficient effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt. Regardless, the overall
   severe threat in the short term (through 10Z) is expected to remain
   isolated at best, but this risk should steadily increase through
   sunrise and thereafter.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 01/02/2017


   LAT...LON   30079397 30249432 31179444 32029406 32369370 32469291
               32449203 32229141 31739095 31349057 30979064 30529103
               30239197 30019297 30079397 

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