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Mesoscale Discussion 4
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0004
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN PA AND SRN NY

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 081939Z - 090045Z

   SUMMARY...PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES
   OF 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
   SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI SEWD ACROSS LAKE
   ERIE TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SPREADING NEWD. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRECEDING
   ILL-PHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE
   MID-ATLANTIC. DESPITE NEAR/ABOVE-FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES IN MANY
   AREAS ACROSS THE REGION...DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S SUGGEST
   THAT WET-BULB COOLING WILL OCCUR. GIVEN WET-BULB SFC TEMPERATURES
   BELOW 32F...THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST AS LOW-LEVEL
   SATURATION OCCURS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION-
   RELATED REFLECTIVITY SHIELD. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL
   MOST LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 21Z-01Z TIME FRAME...AND
   CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE WARMING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
   THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM-ADVECTION PATTERN...SUCH
   WARMING WILL BE OFFSET BY INITIAL EVAPORATION-RELATED COOLING TO
   KEEP SFC TEMPERATURES BELOW 32F IN MANY AREAS -- PARTICULARLY IN
   SHELTERED VALLEYS -- INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL
   GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH FREEZING-RAIN RATES OF 0.05 INCH PER 3
   HOURS POSSIBLE.

   ..COHEN.. 01/08/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41227933 41647982 42147981 42727888 42957774 42777640
               42477598 41607601 41077676 40777754 40777838 41227933 

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Page last modified: January 09, 2016
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