MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0004
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0618 PM CST WED JAN 09 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 100018Z - 100215Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LA COAST
   THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A
   WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE.
   
   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER
   LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS LA AND ACROSS THE
   NWRN GULF OF MEXICO...HELPED ALONG BY WEAKLY ADVANCING OUTFLOW.
   ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SURFACE AIR MASS ACROSS LA IS RELATIVELY
   COOL...A WARM FRONT EXISTS ACROSS SERN LA EXTENDING WWD TO THE LINE
   OF STORMS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND GREATER
   INSTABILITY. THE MODIFIED 00Z LIX SOUNDING SUGGESTS MLCAPE AROUND
   500 J/KG.
   
   CELLS OVER THE WATER HAVE SHOWN ROTATION AT TIMES. AS THESE CELLS
   CONTINUE NEWD...THEY MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST WITH A
   THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF AND LIKELY WEAK TORNADO GIVEN
   FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR....ALTHOUGH THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
   LIMIT EFFECTIVE SRH TO AROUND 150-200 M2/S2.
   
   ..JEWELL/EDWARDS.. 01/10/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
   
   LAT...LON   30119153 30029251 29859297 29559307 29219276 29189197
               28908933 29108891 29908921 30038976 30119032 30109060
               30119153