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Mesoscale Discussion 5
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0005
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 PM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 082054Z - 082300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE NEAR OR
   SOUTHEAST OF THE GREATER HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.  MORE SUBSTANTIVE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD REQUIRE A WATCH...SEEMS MORE LIKELY AFTER
   09/00-01Z THAN BEFORE...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER IS
   NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TEXAS
   COAST IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST MOISTENING.  INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS
   MOISTURE RETURN AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION APPEAR GENERALLY
   ELEVATED ABOVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW RESIDUAL SURFACE BASED STABLE
   LAYER.  BUT...ALONG COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN VICTORIA AND
   GALVESTON...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S...THIS IS
   PROBABLY BOUNDARY LAYER BASED.

   THIS DESTABILIZATION...COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT 
   INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THE INITIATION OF
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS.  ASCENT...AND
   SUPPRESSION OF AT LEAST WEAK INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED
   MIXED LAYER AIR EVIDENT IN THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM LAKE CHARLES...MAY
   CURRENTLY BE AUGMENTED BY A SUBTLE PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE.  SO THE
   LONGEVITY OF ONGOING ACTIVITY REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR...WITH
   CONSIDERABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE RAPID
   REFRESH...SUGGESTING THE MORE APPRECIABLE STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER
   09/00Z...WITH THE CONTINUED APPROACH OF THE PRIMARY UPSTREAM
   MID-LEVEL WAVE.

   IN THE NEAR TERM...INTENSIFICATION OF ONE OR TWO STORMS ACROSS AND
   SOUTHEAST OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA DOES NOT APPEAR
   COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.  ALTHOUGH THE RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS
   SOME WEAKENING OF 20-30 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS.  ANY SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS THE RISK FOR
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 01/08/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29569717 29929709 30449631 30829550 30879478 30319374
               29059416 28679544 28899686 29569717 

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Page last modified: January 08, 2016
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