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Mesoscale Discussion 0006
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2017
Areas affected...Parts of central/east TX and western/central LA
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 1...
Valid 021135Z - 021300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 1 continues.
SUMMARY...Mainly a damaging wind risk continues across remaining
valid portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 1. A downstream watch
into the remainder of east TX and western/central LA will be
required by 13-14Z.
DISCUSSION...Measured severe wind gusts of 64 and 66 mph have
recently been observed per surface observations across parts of
central TX with a bowing line of thunderstorms slightly east of the
I-35 corridor from Dallas to Austin, TX as of 1130Z. Given the fast
eastward progression of this bowing line/cold front (40-50 kt) and a
favorable airmass downstream, strong to damaging winds will continue
to be the main threat in the short-term across remaining valid
portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 1.
Pre-frontal convection has developed northwest of Houston TX, and
the environment across east TX is favorable for supercells ahead of
the eastward-advancing cold front. Strong instability with MLCAPE
around 2000-2500 J/kg across southeast TX, effective bulk shear of
40-50 kt, and elongated low-level hodographs per recent KHGX VWPs
all suggest there will be some risk for an isolated tornado with any
discrete convection ahead of the front.
A local extension of the current Severe Thunderstorm Watch in area
will likely be needed along and north of the Houston metro area for
the strengthening pre-frontal convection. A downstream watch into
the remainder of east TX and western/central LA will be required by
LAT...LON 29959733 30939715 31729691 32669706 33309709 33239532
32799334 32489212 31619207 30589217 29519263 29619300
29519417 29129486 29249619 29959733
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