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Mesoscale Discussion 6
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0006
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 PM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH AND EAST TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 082106Z - 082330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
   AND EAST TEXAS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE ACCAS BECOMING DENSELY
   CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA APPROXIMATELY EXTENDING FROM WACO TX TO
   TEMPLE TX...WELL IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CROSSING THE SRN
   ROCKIES. SUBTLE...LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS ARE EMBEDDED IN A
   SRN-STREAM SPEED MAX CROSSING PARTS OF TX AND NRN MEXICO DOWNSTREAM
   OF THE VORT MAX. THE AFOREMENTIONED ACCAS LIES ON THE WRN EXTENT OF
   A PLUME OF MODESTLY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MARKED BY SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE VORT
   MAX WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...AS ALSO MANIFEST IN HIGH-BASED CU EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CONCHO VALLEY W OF A DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH EXTENDING S OF A
   MESO-LOW ANALYZED NEAR MINERAL WELLS TX. GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES OVER THE AREA AS SAMPLED BY THE 12Z FWD RAOB...AND
   STRENGTHENING DEEP ASCENT...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
   FOR PARCELS ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

   TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON -- PRIMARILY AFTER 23Z -- MAINLY E OF THE DFW METROPLEX.
   THE FWS VWP INDICATES A LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH THROUGH THE
   CONVECTIVE-CLOUD LAYER THAT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...THE
   SVR-HAIL RISK WILL BE LIMITED OVERALL BY THE FOLLOWING FACTORS:
   /1/ MUCAPE DAMPENING WITH NWD DISTANCE FROM THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY
   AND GULF COAST...
   /2/ ANTICIPATION THAT MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION WILL OCCUR S OF THE
   MCD AREA STUNTING NWD RETURN OF MOISTER LOW-LEVEL AIR...AND
   /3/ POTENTIAL FOR EVENTUALLY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS
   THE MCD AREA TO ENSUE -- PARTICULARLY IN NERN TX -- ACCOMPANIED BY
   NUMEROUS CELL-INTERACTIONS LIMITING INDIVIDUAL-UPDRAFT SUSTENANCE.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 01/08/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   30809590 30669662 30839711 31139724 32079710 32939634
               33319545 33219460 32599414 31589477 30809590 

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Page last modified: January 08, 2016
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