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Mesoscale Discussion 7
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0631 PM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX INTO SWRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 1...

   VALID 090031Z - 090230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 1 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE DAMAGING HAIL WILL PERSIST WELL INTO
   THE EVENING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

   DISCUSSION...A RASH OF SEVERE HAIL STORMS HAS ERUPTED ACROSS MUCH OF
   SERN TX IN A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MAINLY ABOVE A SLIGHTLY
   MORE STABLE SFC LAYER...AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH. 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT FOR THIS
   LATITUDE...WHICH IS COMPENSATING FOR THE RELATIVELY LOWER MOISTURE
   CONTENT WITH MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS. SEVERAL OF
   THESE STORMS ARE SUPERCELLS WITH AT LEAST MIDLEVEL ROTATION NOTED ON
   RADAR.

   WHILE THE HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD WITH
   TIME...THERE MAY ALSO BE A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH
   CONDITIONAL. THIS WOULD BE CLOSER TO COASTAL AREAS WHERE HIGHER
   DEWPOINTS OF 63-66 F EXIST. MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE NWD ADVANCEMENT OF
   SAID DEWPOINTS...SUGGESTING ANY SFC-BASED ROTATION MAY BE RELEGATED
   TO NEAR-COASTAL COUNTIES. SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH COULD BE
   UPGRADED TO TORNADO IF SFC OBSERVATIONS AND STORM TRENDS REQUIRE.

   ..JEWELL.. 01/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   28759474 29139580 31359609 32219485 32639397 32579340
               32149312 31359279 30459233 29889215 29389230 28779315
               28689382 28759474 

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Page last modified: January 09, 2016
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