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Mesoscale Discussion 7
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0239 AM CST SAT JAN 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX PANHANDLE/OK PANHANDLE/FAR NE NM

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 030839Z - 031345Z

   SUMMARY...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD
   ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND NE NM INTO THE OK PANHANDLE THIS
   MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR WITHIN THE MCD
   AREA.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
   OVER SRN NM WITH A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT OVER MUCH OF WEST TX. A
   BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
   UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE LEFT EXIT
   REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP ENHANCE
   LIFT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
   UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NAM AND ECMWF
   SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z
   ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN OR INCREASE
   SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE BANDS ALREADY ONGOING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1
   INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF A SHARP DEFORMATION
   ZONE FORECAST TO SET UP FROM NEAR DALHART EWD TO NEAR CANADIAN IN
   THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AROUND DAYBREAK.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 01/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35550245 35300097 35880010 36510015 36870078 37020153
               36880250 36290365 35490395 35240366 35550245 

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Page last modified: January 03, 2015
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