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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LA/SOUTHERN MS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1...2...
VALID 101336Z - 101500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 1...2...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 2 CONTINUES UNTIL 20Z...WITH ISOLATED
TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LA AND SOUTHERN MS. SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OUT
OF TORNADO WATCH 1.
DISCUSSION...AN ENE-MOVING SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ROUGHLY NORTH-SOUTH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MS NEAR NATCHEZ SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE
BATON ROUGE AND HOUMA AREAS OF LA AS OF 1315Z. THIS QLCS HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS WITH STRONG PRESSURE
RISES NOTED ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH-CENTRAL LA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INCREASINGLY PREVALENT COLD POOL. EMBEDDED TRANSIENT
CIRCULATIONS/LEWP STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN COMMON WITHIN THE LINE...AND
THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITHIN A
MOIST/SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PREVALENT AHEAD OF THE
QLCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MS...WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO AS MUCH AS 250-750 J/KG OF MLCAPE AS PER 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM NEW ORLEANS/JACKSON MS. CURVING HODOGRAPHS
WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM BENEATH MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PER THESE
SAME SOUNDINGS AND WSR-88D VWP DATA SUGGEST AROUND 250-350 M2/S2 OF
0-1 KM SRH. PRIMARY SHORT-TERM THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LA EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
INCREASE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MORE OF SOUTHERN MS BY LATE
MORNING AS ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/DIURNAL HEATING
OCCURS...AND GIVEN THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY FURTHER STRENGTHEN
DURING THE DAY.
..GUYER.. 01/10/2013
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30889145 31639155 32269034 31928906 30188974 28968995
29109131 29939123 30889145
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