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Mesoscale Discussion 7
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0007
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0708 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern MS and western AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021308Z - 021445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for marginally severe hail may exist
   with mainly elevated thunderstorms in the short term. Watch issuance
   is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...An elevated supercell that has since weakened produced
   nickel sized hail in Rankin County MS at 1206Z.  Another elevated
   thunderstorm has strengthened as it moved from Kemper County MS into
   Sumter County AL at 13Z. This convection is being driven by
   low-level warm air advection/lift, and MUCAPE has increased to
   around 500-750 J/kg across the discussion area per 13Z RAP
   Mesoanalysis. Although mid-level winds are not overly strong per the
   observed 12Z soundings at LIX/BMX, there should be some increase in
   winds at mid levels over the next several hours as a shortwave
   trough over central/east TX moves across the lower MS Valley.
   Continued low-level moist influx, some diurnal heating, and very
   modest steepening of mid-level lapse rates should allow for an
   increase in instability over the next several hours, which may allow
   some of the strongest thunderstorms to pose a marginal large hail
   and perhaps gusty wind risk. Watch issuance is not expected in the
   near term across the discussion area for this initial activity,
   although the severe risk will increase later this morning and
   afternoon.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 01/02/2017


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32128999 32998928 33558866 33708795 33418730 32758690
               32138747 31218911 31318988 32128999 

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Page last modified: January 02, 2017
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