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Mesoscale Discussion 9
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0117 AM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF SOUTHEAST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 090717Z - 090945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT /HAIL SIZE AROUND 1 INCH IN
   DIAMETER WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS/ WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
   OVERNIGHT TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PART OF SOUTHEAST TX. 
   LIMITED COVERAGE OF THIS THREAT PRECLUDES WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...SINCE 0530Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN INCREASE
   IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY...WITH THIS SMALL CLUSTER OF
   STORMS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON...BURLESON AND BRAZOS
   COUNTIES AT 0705Z.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED NEAR THE
   INTERSECTION OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE...AND ALONG THE
   LEADING EXTENT OF DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL TX.  ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
   INTO A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES /GIVEN
   TIME OF DAY/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN THESE STORMS BEING
   ELEVATED AS SUGGESTED BY 05Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  THE
   COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD 500-MB
   TEMPERATURES /-22 TO -26 C/...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND
   STRENGTHENING 500-MB WINDS/CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
   SUSTAINED ELEVATED UPDRAFTS WITH A HAIL THREAT.

   THE 00Z 4-KM NAM/WRF-NSSL EACH SHOWED A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS
   TRACKING TO THE EAST/EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH 11Z
   BEFORE DIMINISHING NEAR THE SABINE RIVER.  THIS GUIDANCE CONFIRMS
   THE CONCLUSIONS FROM THE OBSERVATIONAL AND DIAGNOSTIC DATA FOR A
   SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS POSING AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT.  HOWEVER...
   GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS
   NOT WARRANTED.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 01/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30589659 30829617 30999525 31159461 31209400 31049374
               30509387 30169458 29989537 29919593 29919641 29969676
               30039683 30589659 

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Page last modified: January 09, 2016
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