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Mesoscale Discussion 9
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0009
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1017 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2017

   Areas affected...southeast Louisiana through southern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 021617Z - 021815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and a few tornadoes is
   expected to increase from southeast Louisiana through southern
   Mississippi into southwest Alabama from late morning into the
   afternoon. A tornado watch will likely be issued for this region by

   DISCUSSION...This morning a coastal warm front extends from the FL
   Panhandle through the MS boot heel into southeast and west central
   Louisiana where it intersects a pre-frontal squall line. Widespread
   clouds have been a limiting factor so far for a more robust severe
   threat. However, the moist boundary layer south of the warm front is
   destabilizing, primarily due to theta-e advection, but some cloud
   breaks will be possible this afternoon supporting MLCAPE from
   1000-1500 j/kg. The squall line will likely continue east next
   several hours as it intercepts the moistening boundary layer along
   and south of the warm front. Additional more discrete storms will
   likely continue developing within pre-frontal confluence bands
   within the destabilizing warm sector. Some strengthening of broad
   southwesterly low-level jet will occur into the afternoon in
   association with forcing for ascent accompanying the progressive
   southern-stream shortwave trough. This will maintain sufficiently
   large 0-2 km hodographs for a threat of low-level mesocyclones and a
   few tornadoes, especially as discrete storms become surface-based
   ahead of the line. Brief QLCS tornadoes in addition to damaging wind
   will remain the primary threats within the squall line.

   ..Dial/Weiss.. 01/02/2017


   LAT...LON   32059183 32368987 31848767 30478764 30278928 29619032
               30159126 32059183 

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