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Mesoscale Discussion 9
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1024 AM CST SAT JAN 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS...ERN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 031624Z - 031830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PRE-FRONTAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS
   WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF A COUPLE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
   10 W UOX TO 20 W JAN TO 30 W HEZ TO 30 NW LFT AS OF 16Z. FROM THE
   JAN AREA SWD TO THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...A
   DESTABILIZING AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 65-70 DEG F SURFACE DEW
   POINTS WAS PREVALENT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT WARM
   SECTOR TCU/CBS HAVE INITIATED OFFSHORE S OF ATCHAFALAYA BAY. RECENT
   HRRR RUNS AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN
   SIMULATING STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS INLAND
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR
   APPEARS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THIS WARM
   CONVEYOR ACTIVITY. 

   DESPITE MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN 12Z LCH/JAN
   RAOBS...SLIGHT SURFACE HEATING IN THE 72-74 DEG F RANGE ACROSS ERN
   LA IS ALREADY ADEQUATE FOR MLCAPE AROUND 750 J/KG. VEERED LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS /STRONGER WITH NRN EXTENT/ SUGGEST HODOGRAPHS WILL NOT BE
   OVERLY LARGE...BUT CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS
   CAPABLE OF A COUPLE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MOST FAVORABLE
   ENVIRONMENTAL CORRIDOR FOR TORNADOES SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS ERN LA
   INTO SRN MS BETWEEN ABOUT 19-22Z.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 01/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   33068974 33108883 32878838 32498830 31928840 31188867
               30228942 29469041 29399110 29679179 30209183 30829156
               31689112 32459015 33068974 

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Page last modified: January 03, 2015
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