MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0335 PM CST THU JAN 10 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 102135Z - 102300Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN AL AND
   THE WRN FL PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS
   CONDITIONAL AND THE PROBABILITY OF WW ISSUANCE IS 40 PERCENT.
   
   DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
   FROM FAR SRN AL EXTENDING NWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AL WHERE MLCAPE
   VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE. AS THE LINE OF
   CONVECTION WEST OF MOBILE MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON...THE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
   MAINTAIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. IF THE LINE CAN
   INTENSIFY...THEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH ABOUT
   25 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT AND TORNADO THREAT. THE THREATS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR
   EAST AS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BUT SHOULD DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
   AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 01/10/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   32148763 32048820 31778853 31138856 30318830 30158781
               30278705 31318648 32078653 32148763