MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0010
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0540 PM CST THU JAN 10 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...SERN MO...FAR WRN KY AND WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 102340Z - 110145Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS NERN AR AND SRN
   MO THIS EVENING...WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   HOWEVER...THE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...AND A WATCH IS
   NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME NECESSARY.
   
   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE
   LOWER OH AND MID MS VALLEY IN RELATION TO WARM ADVECTION WITH A
   40-50 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 60S WITH LOW 60S F
   DEWPOINTS...RESULTING IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY.
   
   RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING ALOFT
   FROM SWRN MO INTO CNTRL AR AS OF 2330Z. ANY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WOULD
   LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE
   STORM WOULD APPEAR TO BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS THE COOLER AIR
   ALOFT OVERSPREADS IT...FROM NERN AR INTO SERN MO. N OF THIS
   BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY IS VIRTUALLY ZERO.
   
   SHEAR IS STRONG WITH 0-1 SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. HOWEVER...GIVEN
   WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY
   FORMING. CONDITIONALLY...QUASI-LINEAR MODES AS WELL AS SUPERCELLS
   WOULD BE FAVORED CAPABLE OF WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THE
   AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..JEWELL/EDWARDS.. 01/10/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
   
   LAT...LON   34279157 35059210 35999293 36449248 37299146 37689037
               37678962 37238887 36648874 35998884 35358925 35108954
               34819016 34389073 34199114 34279157