Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 10
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 10 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0010
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 AM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2...

   VALID 090852Z - 091045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR A STRONG WIND GUST REMAIN THE PRIMARY
   SEVERE HAZARDS ACROSS SEVERE TSTM WATCH 2.  THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
   AREAS OF TERREBONNE PARISH HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO
   THREAT...THOUGH STORMS MAY NOT REACH THAT PART OF LA UNTIL CLOSER TO
   12Z.  THIS LATTER THREAT WILL BE MONITORED NEAR AND EAST OF WW 2 FOR
   ANY ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE OR AREAL/TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF WW 2.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0830Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED TWO PARALLEL
   BANDS OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NNE-SSW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA
   INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.  THE STORMS ACROSS LA AND WITHIN
   A MAJORITY OF WW 2 WERE LIKELY ELEVATED GIVEN THEIR LOCATION NORTH
   OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH AT 08Z REMAINED OFFSHORE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
   KVBS /SABINE OIL PLATFORM/ TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...NORTH OF
   KEIR...AND THEN JUST OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST TERREBONNE PARISH AND
   THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF PLAQUEMINES PARISH.  THE STORMS
   THAT HAVE POSED THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL ROTATION/TORNADO THREAT HAVE
   REMAINED OFFSHORE...WITH THIS THREAT BEING THE GREATEST AS THEY
   INTERACTED WITH THE WARM FRONT.  OTHERWISE...MUCAPE OF 200-400 J/KG
   NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AS STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM
   WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING WLY MIDLEVEL JET.  HAIL
   SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA ENHANCED BY
   MECHANICAL PROCESSES SUCH AS WATER LOADING.  

   THE WESTERN BAND OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM EAST-CENTRAL LA TO JUST
   EAST OF LCH AND INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO
   DELINEATE THE WESTERN EXTENT OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS
   ENVIRONMENT.  VEERED 850-MB WINDS PER VWP DATA AT FORT POLK LA AND
   HOUSTON TX SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...AND SUGGEST PARISHES AND MARINE
   ZONES WEST OF THIS BAND OF STORMS CAN BE CANCELLED FROM WW 2 WITH
   ITS PASSAGE.

   ..PETERS.. 01/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29489362 29969332 30769247 30829183 30669105 30249056
               29859025 29379002 28759009 28709068 28769116 28899187
               29139278 29329327 29489362 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 09, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities