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Mesoscale Discussion 10
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0010
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1109 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2017

   Areas affected...North-central through southern LA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 2...

   Valid 021709Z - 021845Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and a few tornadoes will persist
   through 19Z from northern through south-central LA.

   DISCUSSION...Squall line stretches across wrn LA and is moving east
   at around 35 kt. Additional storms are developing within a
   confluence band just ahead of the main line. A warm front extends
   from north central LA eastward through southern MS. Despite limited
   diabatic warming due to widespread clouds, the warm sector continues
   to slowly destabilize due primarily to northward advection of higher
   theta-e air with dewpoints around 70F supporting MLCAPE up to 1500
   J/kg. The storms are embedded within 45-50 kt effective bulk shear
   along with 0-1 km hodographs sufficient for low-level mesocyclones.
   Embedded bowing segments and brief tornadoes remain possible within
   the line. The greater tornado threat will persist with discrete or
   semi-discrete storms developing just ahead of the line. Most of this
   activity should move beyond WW #2 and into WW #3 by 19Z.

   ..Dial.. 01/02/2017


   LAT...LON   32419284 32739247 32489212 31209175 30029154 29569177
               29589260 29879339 30869295 32419284 

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