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Mesoscale Discussion 0010
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2017
Areas affected...North-central through southern LA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 2...
Valid 021709Z - 021845Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and a few tornadoes will persist
through 19Z from northern through south-central LA.
DISCUSSION...Squall line stretches across wrn LA and is moving east
at around 35 kt. Additional storms are developing within a
confluence band just ahead of the main line. A warm front extends
from north central LA eastward through southern MS. Despite limited
diabatic warming due to widespread clouds, the warm sector continues
to slowly destabilize due primarily to northward advection of higher
theta-e air with dewpoints around 70F supporting MLCAPE up to 1500
J/kg. The storms are embedded within 45-50 kt effective bulk shear
along with 0-1 km hodographs sufficient for low-level mesocyclones.
Embedded bowing segments and brief tornadoes remain possible within
the line. The greater tornado threat will persist with discrete or
semi-discrete storms developing just ahead of the line. Most of this
activity should move beyond WW #2 and into WW #3 by 19Z.
LAT...LON 32419284 32739247 32489212 31209175 30029154 29569177
29589260 29879339 30869295 32419284
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