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Mesoscale Discussion 11
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0143 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS...SERN LA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1...

   VALID 031943Z - 032115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 1 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK HAS RECENTLY COMMENCED WITH A TSTM CLUSTER
   ALONG THE SWRN MS/SERN LA BORDER AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE THE
   GREATEST RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES THROUGH 22-23Z OVER S-CNTRL TO
   E-CNTRL MS. A SQUALL LINE OVER WRN MS SHOULD ALSO INTENSIFY AS IT
   MOVES INTO CNTRL/ERN MS.

   DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A 1011 MB MESOLOW NEAR
   THE SWRN MS/SERN LA BORDER WITH A ROBUST AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER
   CNTRL/SRN MS AND ERN LA. RECENT REPORT OF TREE DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED
   WITH A SUPERCELL OVER WALTHALL COUNTY MS. MODIFIED/INTERPOLATED 18Z
   LIX/JAN RAOBS SUGGEST THIS STORM IS WITHIN THE MOST FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE AROUND
   1000 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO EVOLVE E/NEWD WITHIN THE HEART OF WW 1...YIELDING A RISK
   FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
   AFTERNOON.

   FARTHER NW...INTENSIFICATION OF A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE EFFECTIVE
   COLD FRONT APPEARS PROBABLE AS THE NRN EXTENT OF THE QLCS INTERCEPTS
   THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL MS. WITH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   OWING TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TRACK OF THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES AMIDST SURFACE-BASED INFLOW SHOULD
   SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
   TORNADO.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 01/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   33179041 33438998 33578916 33578856 33508846 33138812
               32388797 31188789 30958825 30908902 30459032 30429111
               30509140 30679150 33179041 

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Page last modified: January 03, 2015
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