MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0623 PM CST THU JAN 10 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...UPPER PENINSULA OF MI
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 110023Z - 110630Z
   
   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH RATES OF AROUND
   0.05 IN/HR...LOCALLY HIGHER...BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z.
   
   DISCUSSION...A 90-150-MILE WIDE...WNW/ESE-ORIENTED PRECIPITATION
   SHIELD WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING NNEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN WI THIS
   EVENING...ENTERING THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI BY 04Z. THIS ACTIVITY
   ACCOMPANIES A ZONE OF ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT -- REF. GRB VWP
   DATA THAT DEPICT A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE BELOW 1 KM AGL.
   WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPERATURES
   RISING TO 3-6C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION...COMPLETE
   MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS WILL OCCUR.
   
   AT THE SFC...ESELY/SELY TRAJECTORIES...EMANATING FROM A CONTINENTAL
   POLAR AIR MASS CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL ALLOW
   SFC WET BULB TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY HOLD IN THE 30-32F RANGE.
   THIS WILL BE AIDED BY NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN SFC-LAYER DIABATIC COOLING.
   AS SUCH...FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED...WITH RATES OF 0.05 IN/HR
   LIKELY...AND LOCALLY HIGHER RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY
   TIME FOR THE HIGHEST FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL BE FROM 02Z TO 08Z AS
   THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ACTIVITY
   LIKELY TAPERING OFF LATER IN THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY LOCALLY
   CHANGE TO RAIN WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE 32F...OWING TO
   DOWNWARD-DIRECTED SENSIBLE HEAT FLUXES AND/OR VERY MODEST SFC WARM
   ADVECTION.
   
   ..COHEN.. 01/11/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   LAT...LON   46848904 46848827 46268766 45238828 44718948 44729106
               44979190 45199237 45539264 45769266 46299234 46659181
               46709116 46559055 46788966 46848904