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Mesoscale Discussion 11
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0702 PM CST WED JAN 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN AR

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 090102Z - 090600Z

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RATES OF 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...A PLAN-VIEW DEPICTION OF 1.5-KM-AGL FLOW INDICATES A
   SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM NERN TX INTO WRN AR...SUPPORTING MODEST
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA. THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A
   SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSING THE ARKLATEX PER MOISTURE
   CHANNEL IMAGERY IS ENHANCING ASCENT IN THE TERMINUS OF THE LLJ.
   AMIDST NON-ZERO -- THOUGH VERY LITTLE -- MUCAPE SAMPLED BY THE 00Z
   LIT RAOB...THE ASCENT IS ENHANCING REGENERATING SHALLOW CONVECTION
   OVER WRN/CNTRL AR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD WHILE THE EXIT
   REGION OF THE LLJ STRETCHES ENEWD IN TANDEM WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF
   THE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX.

   DEEP ASCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A
   BETTER-DEFINED IMPULSE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE TX
   PANHANDLE. AS SUCH...SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
   ACROSS THE MCD AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
   RAOB ALSO SAMPLES A 4-CELSIUS WARM NOSE AROUND 900 MB ABOVE A
   SUB-FREEZING SFC-BASED COLD DOME...PROMOTING FREEZING RAIN AS THE
   PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. AND...WITH SUB-FREEZING WET BULB SFC
   TEMPERATURES PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AIDED BY
   DRY/CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
   E...FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE INTO
   THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ..COHEN.. 01/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34959068 34319147 34089280 34169361 34599410 35469416
               36169358 36309214 36059046 34959068 

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Page last modified: January 09, 2014
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