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Mesoscale Discussion 11
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0011
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2018

   Areas affected...portions of central and northern IL...northwest   
   Indiana...far eastern IA...northeast MO

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 072000Z - 080000Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates around 0.05 inch per 3 hours are
   expected this afternoon/early evening.  (Corrected MD graphic area).

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a light precipitation shield from
   north-central IL southwestward into the Lower MO Valley early this
   afternoon.  Kirksville, MO reported around 0.04 inch of freezing
   rain during the 17z-18z period with other stations across the
   MO/IL/IA tri-state reporting lighter rates.  The precipitation is
   located within a warm conveyer atop an initially dry/cold boundary
   layer.  As as shortwave trough over the central/southern Great
   Plains moves towards the Ozarks/Northwest Gulf Coastal regions, the
   zone of stronger ascent will move into IL from the west as the low
   levels saturate.  Forecast soundings show an above-freezing layer
   centered around the 900-850 mb layer.  There is some disagreement
   amongst short-term models as to the surface temperature remaining at
   or below freezing.  However, considerable wet-bulb cooling will
   favor freezing rain as the primary precipitation type as
   temperatures gradually warm through the upper 20s to near freezing. 
   The pre-conditioned cold temperatures may facilitate greater ice
   accumulation than otherwise would occur as temperatures warm and
   become more marginal (around 32 degrees F).

   ..Smith.. 01/07/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40058881 39869052 40179179 40859173 41859062 41988768
               41518694 41068698 40718724 40058881 

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Page last modified: January 08, 2018
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