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Mesoscale Discussion 12
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0012
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2017

   Areas affected...Central through southern MS...southeast
   LA...southern AL and the western FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...

   Valid 022003Z - 022200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and a few tornadoes will
   persist over the remainder of WW #3 including central and south MS,
   southeast LA, south AL and the western FL Panhandle.

   DISCUSSION...This afternoon a warm front has moved farther inland
   and stretches from southern AL through southern MS just south of
   Jackson where it intersects a squall line that extends from
   southwest MS into south central LA. The warm sector continues to
   moisten and destabilize slowly northward, but boundary-layer warming
   remains tempered by widespread low clouds. The latest objective
   analysis indicates MLCAPE from 1000-1500 j/kg, except near 2000 j/kg
   near the LA coast as sampled by the 18Z Slidell raob. The squall
   line is moving east at 40-45 kt with bowing segments and embedded
   mesocyclones observed. Downstream from the line, numerous
   thunderstorms continue developing in the warm sector within the zone
   of modest warm advection and isentropic ascent along the broad
   southwesterly low-level jet. Very strong deep-layer vertical shear
   with large 0-2 km hodographs will continue to promote some
   supercells and a threat for tornadoes anywhere in warm sector with
   discrete storms, but especially in vicinity of warm front. Otherwise
   damaging wind and brief QLCS tornadoes are the primary threats with
   storms embedded within the squall line.

   ..Dial.. 01/02/2017


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29969093 30869037 31539022 32459036 32898975 32878849
               32258749 31688577 31208549 30588593 30218874 29668890
               29268939 29129008 29219098 29399126 29969093 

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Page last modified: January 02, 2017
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