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Mesoscale Discussion 12
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1003 AM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SRN
   ALABAMA/SW GEORGIA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 091603Z - 091800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
   THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN NOW AND 18-20Z.  SOME STORMS
   MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
   IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.  HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH
   ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REQUIRE A SEVERE WEATHER
   WATCH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN APPARENT MINIMAL RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE
   GUSTS AND TORNADOES.

   DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF CONVECTION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF
   COAST/NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION.  THIS GENERALLY COINCIDES
   WITH FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A SIGNIFICANT
   SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW TURNING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...TOWARD THE MID SOUTH REGION.  HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
   GUIDANCE AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS...SOME WITH
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...PROBABLY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 40-50 KT
   SOUTHERLY 850 MB SPEED MAXIMUM WHICH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NOSING
   INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THE 18-20Z TIME
   FRAME.  

   FROM THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN...THE
   POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION REMAINS A
   BIT UNCERTAIN.  IT CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT IT DOES APPEAR
   THAT MOISTENING ABOVE A RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER COULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG.  IN THE
   PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING
   LAYER...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST THE RISK FOR
   SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS.

   ..KERR/WEISS.. 01/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   29928795 30468757 31088620 31008497 30018461 29538537
               29748586 29978659 29928795 

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Page last modified: January 09, 2016
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