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Mesoscale Discussion 12
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0248 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NEW YORK STATE INTO VERMONT AND NEW
   HAMPSHIRE

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 032048Z - 032345Z

   SUMMARY...A 2-4 PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW RATES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 1
   INCH PER HOUR APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION BY AROUND
   04/00Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY PRECIPITATION
   MIX AND THEN RAIN OVERNIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE WARMING OF MID TO LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IS EXPECTED TO PROCEED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
   OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.
   HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF COLD SURFACE
   RIDGING IS STILL ENTRENCHED FARTHER TO THE NORTH...ACROSS THE
   ADIRONDACKS THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

   AS AN INTENSIFYING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET /50-70+ KT AT 850 MB/
   CONTRIBUTES TO NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRENGTHENING
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION...PRECIPITATION RATES ARE
   EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
   AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...IT APPEARS THAT LIFT WITHIN THE
   DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY
   SNOW RATES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...NEAR/ NORTH OF
   THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND NEW
   HAMPSHIRE...TOWARD THE 04/00-02Z TIME FRAME.

   THE DEVELOPING HEAVY SNOW BAND...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   PROGRESSIVE...AS CONTINUED WARMING TO TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT
   MID TO LOWER LEVELS...FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...
   SUPPORTS A STEADY TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
   AND RAIN.

   ..KERR.. 01/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BUF...

   LAT...LON   44077786 45297726 46067341 44897146 44347123 43887156
               43397280 43517393 43707513 43767602 44077786 

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Page last modified: January 03, 2015
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