Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 13
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 13 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0013
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 PM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN MS...PORTIONS OF SWRN TN/NWRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 091821Z - 092045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LIMITED
   MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT...WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...AT 1815Z...WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG VORT MAX MOVING
   ACROSS AR...WHILE RADAR AND VIS IMAGERY SHOW ONE BROKEN LINE OF
   STORMS ACROSS CNTRL MS...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
   DEVELOP FURTHER SW NEAR THE LA/MS BORDER ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WHILE
   CLOUDS ARE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...A FEW BREAKS
   HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR 60F AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
   ACROSS WRN MS...WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 50S. IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AHEAD
   OF THE VORT MAX...THIS MODEST HEATING HAS ALLOWED SBCAPE TO RISE TO
   250-500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS. 

   STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX IS RESULTING IN
   SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORM
   STRUCTURES WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL...THOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL
   WILL BE TEMPERED BY LIMITED BUOYANCY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE...THOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
   THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND THREAT. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIMITED
   NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   ..DEAN/WEISS.. 01/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33149100 33919052 34589015 34978989 35318925 35458876
               35508806 35268759 34668749 34178754 33368796 32868824
               32558846 32158871 32018928 32009000 32049055 32339090
               33149100 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 09, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities