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Mesoscale Discussion 13
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0013
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MS...WRN AL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1...

   VALID 032054Z - 032230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 1 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO RISK CONTINUES WITHIN WW 1...GREATEST OVER
   E-CNTRL/SERN MS. THIS RISK ALONG WITH EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION OF A
   FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IN CNTRL MS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF
   WRN AL BY 23Z. A DOWNSTREAM TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY BY 22Z.

   DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS CENTERED OVER COVINGTON/SMITH AND
   JASPER COUNTY MS REMAIN IN THE MOST FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AS ALLUDED TO IN MCD 0011.
   DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN WRN AL WITH 67 DEG F
   DEW POINTS NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY/INSTABILITY WILL
   BE LESSER RELATIVE TO FARTHER S/SW...PRESENCE OF 200-300 M2/S2 0-1
   KM SRH WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION. AMALGAMATION OF
   UPDRAFTS WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TSTM CLUSTER AND THE QLCS ALONG THE
   EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD AN INCREASINGLY MESSY CONVECTIVE
   MODE WHICH MAY LIMIT TEMPORAL SUSTENANCE OF INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELL
   UPDRAFTS DURING THE EVENING.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 01/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   34448810 34268752 33618715 33048697 32668693 31978711
               31648738 31338810 31348878 31398945 31508991 31909016
               32788977 33348942 33898891 34448810 

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Page last modified: January 03, 2015
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