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Mesoscale Discussion 14
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0014
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0447 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 032247Z - 032345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR A TORNADO AND
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE BY 00Z.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER MONROE COUNTY AL HAS
   EXHIBITED PERSISTENT ROTATION AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AT NEARLY 50
   MPH.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC
   ZONE...REINFORCED BY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL AL...THAT EXTENDS
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO BHM COUNTY WARNING AREA FROM
   DALLAS TO MONTGOMERY AND RUSSELL COUNTIES. AS THE MONROE COUNTY
   STORM CONTINUES NORTHEAST...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT
   FOR PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL ROTATION AND POSE A TORNADO RISK AS 
   EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF AROUND 200 M2/S2 EXIST DOWNSTREAM. AS THIS
   CELL EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS AND INTO MORE STABLE AIR NORTH OF THE
   BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE LOW-LEVEL ROTATION THREAT WILL GRADUALLY
   DIMINISH.

   ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW BY 00Z.

   ..BUNTING/WEISS.. 01/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31748618 31408649 31358721 31498758 31988756 32288743
               32538706 32798689 33028671 33108656 33088629 33018600
               32878581 32578560 32178590 31748618 

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Page last modified: January 03, 2015
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