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Mesoscale Discussion 14
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0014
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0141 PM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PENINSULA GULF COAST

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 091941Z - 092045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE SPREADING TOWARD AREAS
   NEAR/SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...AND MAY REACH COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
   21-23Z TIME FRAME.  AREAL COVERAGE/EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS LOW ENOUGH THAT A WATCH PROBABLY IS NOT
   NEEDED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
   POSSIBILITY.  SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE BEING INCREASED TO A
   CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA IN THE UPCOMING
   20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED
   WITHIN AN AREA OF BROAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION OVER
   THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
   EASTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GULF COAST.  THE LEADING EDGE
   OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
   21-23Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD INLAND.  

   THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDES SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS...SOME WITH STRONG
   MID-LEVEL ROTATION EVIDENT...PERHAPS WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO
   THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY,  THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH
   SUGGESTS THAT MODEST STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW TO
   AROUND 30 KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION
   THOUGH EARLY EVENING.  IT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WILL
   BE MUCH FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/DEEPENING ACROSS THE
   COASTAL WATERS INTO COASTAL AREAS.  BUT IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THE
   RISK WILL INCREASE FOR SUPERCELLS SPREADING INLAND WITH POTENTIAL
   FOR SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

   ..KERR/WEISS.. 01/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

   LAT...LON   28348292 28148261 27788230 26968162 26468162 26048212
               26078310 26398370 27808436 28688430 28508324 28348292 

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Page last modified: January 09, 2016
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