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Mesoscale Discussion 15
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0015
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0420 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

   Areas affected...Central/Northeast KS

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 111020Z - 111415Z

   SUMMARY...A transition from rain to sleet/freezing rain to snow is
   anticipated across much of the region over the next several hours.
   Periodic heavy snow with snowfall rates around 1"/hr are possible
   after transition to all snow occurs.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 20 miles
   north of STJ (in far northwest MO) with a strong cold front
   extending southwestward from the low across southeast KS to another
   low in northwest OK. Strong low-level frontogenesis is contributing
   to a broad area of precipitation over much of western and central
   KS. Much of the precipitation over central KS is currently rain, but
   strong low-level cold advection is expected to quickly cool the
   850mb to surface layer. As this occurs, a transition to more mixed
   precipitation, likely predominately sleet, is anticipated. This
   mixed precipitation phase is not expected to last long (i.e. less
   than 2 hours) as continued cold advection results in an eventual
   transition to snow. After the transition to snow occurs, periodic
   heavy snowfall (i.e. up to 1"/hr) is possible as strengthening
   mid-level frontogenesis (attendant to the mid-level trough) augments
   lift.

   ..Mosier.. 01/11/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37899998 38979915 39789773 39889554 39069553 37439770
               37029940 37169999 37899998 

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Page last modified: January 11, 2018
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