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Mesoscale Discussion 15
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/SERN MS/SERN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 110918Z - 111115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...INCREASING CONVECTION WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT
   STRONGLY SHEARED PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS ISOLATED SEVERE
   RISK.  WHILE A WW IS NOT IMMINENT...ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED OVER
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT -- NOW JUST
   E OF THE MID MS VALLEY -- CONTINUING TO MARCH STEADILY EWD...WHILE
   SLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW CONTINUES ADVECTING LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS
   NWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION.

   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH --
   CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION...AND IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO A
   MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS SRN LA OVER THE PAST HOUR
   OR SO.  THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THIS
   AREA...MODEST/ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   SUBTLE COOLING AT MID LEVELS WITH TIME SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME
   INCREASE IN CAPE.  AS A RESULT...SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
   STRENGTHENING/ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS --
   GIVEN THAT BACKGROUND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS LIKEWISE SUPPORTIVE
   OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.

   ASSUMING SOME DEGREE OF LOCAL UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION/LONGEVITY
   INDEED OCCURS...OBSERVED 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT SUGGESTS THAT A
   CONCURRENT INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE.  THIS RISK --
   ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER
   STORMS -- MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE WW ISSUANCE.  WE WILL CONTINUE
   TO MONITOR AIRMASS EVOLUTION AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR SIGNS OF
   INCREASING SHORT-TERM SEVERE RISK.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 01/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29179162 29699167 30639078 31748925 32788758 32748628
               31318605 30138640 29938866 29708893 29078892 28788930
               28948983 28879093 29179162 

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Page last modified: January 11, 2014
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