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Mesoscale Discussion 15
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0607 PM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 100007Z - 100100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE NOTED WITH STRONG CONVECTION AS
   IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...AN ELONGATED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS...EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA...WSWWD INTO THE
   CNTRL GULF BASIN.  OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SEVERAL DISTINCT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE PROGRESSED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND ONE
   PARTICULARLY STRONG STORM WITH SUBSTANTIAL ROTATION HAS MOVED INLAND
   OVER LEE COUNTY.  

   LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE
   SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM.  IT APPEARS THIS
   WSW-ENE ORIENTED MCS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND SAG SOUTH ACROSS
   THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING.  NUMEROUS SMALLER DISCRETE STRUCTURES
   ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME
   TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SEASONALLY MOIST LOW
   LEVELS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WW.

   ..DARROW/MEAD.. 01/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

   LAT...LON   26048321 26498233 26858132 26688058 26068055 25568284
               26048321 

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Page last modified: January 10, 2016
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