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Mesoscale Discussion 16
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0559 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL AL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 2...

   VALID 032359Z - 040100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 2 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES WILL EXIST
   WITHIN AND JUST NORTH OF WW 002 THROUGH 02Z. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL
   RISK WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BEYOND 02Z...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
   MAY CONTINUE AND THE NEED FOR A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION WILL BE
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...BOWING LINE SEGMENT WITH EMBEDDED QLCS CIRCULATION OVER
   WINSTON COUNTY AL WILL MOVE NEWD AND OUT OF WW 002 BY 0030Z.
   ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MINIMAL
   INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 100-200 J/KG/ AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
   PRECIPITATION...THIS LINE SEGMENT WILL LIKELY POSE A CONTINUED RISK
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO AS IT MOVES ACROSS FAR NRN AL
   THROUGH 0030-0100Z. BEYOND THAT TIME...CONTINUED DIMINISHING
   INSTABILITY AND INTERACTION WITH ONGOING AND WIDESPREAD
   PRECIPITATION SUGGESTS THAT AN ADDITIONAL WW NORTH OF WW 002 IS
   UNLIKELY. THIS HAS BEEN COLLABORATED WITH WFO HUNTSVILLE.

   FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW 002...THE MOST INTENSE LINE OF
   TSTMS EXTENDED SWWD THROUGH TUSCALOOSA COUNTY AND INTO SUMTER COUNTY
   AL...WITH THE TUSCALOOSA COUNTY PORTION OF THE LINE OCNLY DEVELOPING
   EMBEDDED QLCS CIRCULATIONS.  THE LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE
   NEWD WITH BOWING SEGMENTS THAT CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS/OCNL LOW-LEVEL
   CIRCULATIONS. BEYOND THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION AT 02Z...THE SVR
   THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS DIURNAL COOLING CONTINUES.
   NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   ..BUNTING/WEISS.. 01/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...

   LAT...LON   34238807 34588805 34808780 34908745 34898719 34878692
               34788672 34398666 34048692 33598691 32938689 32658725
               32478744 32188760 32098797 32378832 33658791 34238807 

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Page last modified: January 04, 2015
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