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Mesoscale Discussion 16
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0703 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE INTO WRN
   AND CENTRAL GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON 

   VALID 111303Z - 111330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
   SURFACE COLD FRONT.  ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK HAS INCREASED -- SUCH
   THAT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS PARTS OF E
   CENTRAL AL INTO WRN AND CENTRAL GA.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE/ORGANIZE AHEAD OF THE
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT -- WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN A QLCS
   EXTENDING FROM NRN GA SWWD INTO CENTRAL AL.

   WHILE THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS ONLY MODESTLY
   UNSTABLE /MIXED-LAYER CAPE AOB 500 J/KG/...STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY
   ORGANIZED -- WITHIN A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT.  WITH
   BOWING/LEWP-TYPE STRUCTURES EVIDENT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTION
   OF THE LINE...LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE.  IN
   ADDITION...A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS NEAR AND S OF THE RETREATING
   WEDGE FRONT /NOW OVER NRN GA/ AND 0-1 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
   SUGGESTS RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL.  GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND CORRESPONDING SEVERE/TORNADO RISK...A
   TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 01/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   34068447 33758365 32968302 30578442 30388516 30868757
               32198648 34068447 

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Page last modified: January 11, 2014
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