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Mesoscale Discussion 16
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0016
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1112 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of northern FL and southern GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031712Z - 031915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
   through mid afternoon, and watch issuance will not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Shallow convection -- containing little to no 
   lightning -- will continue to evolve across parts of northern FL and
   southern GA through the afternoon, within a zone of weak pre-frontal
   ascent. Differential-heating-induced baroclinicity peripheral to
   denser/multi-layered cloud shields amidst rich low-level moisture
   (surface dewpoints in the lower 70s) and related low MLCINH will
   support this activity. Destabilizing inflow associated with diurnal
   heating will be sufficient for one or two stronger updrafts. With
   the JAX VAD wind profile indicating adequate deep shear and
   low-level speed shear, a few rotating convective elements capable of
   producing locally strong wind gusts (and perhaps a weak tornado)
   cannot be ruled out. However, veered low-level winds and related
   limitations to low-level convergence and SRH should continue to
   mitigate the severe risk through the afternoon. Furthermore, poor
   midlevel lapse rates will stunt vertical development with convection
   and limit the severe risk.

   ..Cohen/Edwards.. 01/03/2017


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30548290 30808238 30868180 30678151 30078142 29788232
               30028306 30288318 30548290 

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Page last modified: January 03, 2017
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