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Mesoscale Discussion 17
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0443 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN NC /INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS/

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 101043Z - 101315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING-WIND THREAT IS
   EXPECTED ACROSS FAR EASTERN NC INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH MID
   TO LATE MORNING.  OVERALL FORECAST FOR LOW COVERAGE OF THE
   SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES DURING THE OVERNIGHT INDICATED THE
   ENVIRONMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE TSTMS THAT MOVED ACROSS PAMLICO SOUND
   AND THE OUTER BANKS BETWEEN 0530-0730Z HAS DESTABILIZED.  VWP DATA
   AT MHX AND ILM SHOWED 850-MB AND 700-MB WINDS VEERED TO
   SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER STORMS ALLOWING FOR GREATER
   THETAE/STEEPER SURFACE TO 3-KM MLCAPE OF 100-150 J/KG TO SPREAD
   NORTHWARD FROM OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN NC COASTAL AREA.  SINCE
   0830Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT APPROXIMATELY 30-40 NM OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL SC COAST TO
   THE CENTRAL NC COAST. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARED
   TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A CONFLUENCE ZONE PER SURFACE STREAMLINE
   ANALYSIS...WHILE MINI-SUPERCELLS WERE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND
   SOUTHEAST OF THE OUTER BANKS IN VICINITY OF THE MARINE FRONT.

   50-60-METER 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NC
   THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH TRACKING INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
   APPROACHES THIS REGION.  THIS COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
   WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING SWLY MID-UPPER-LEVEL JET
   SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VA THIS MORNING
   SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 12-15Z.  STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS CURRENTLY
   OBSERVED OFFSHORE PER RADAR IMAGERY.  INCREASED HODOGRAPH CURVATURE
   WILL BE SUSTAINED GIVEN A 40-50-KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORTING A
   TORNADO THREAT.  WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE
   OF STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS.  THIS AND SPATIOTEMPORAL LIMITS
   PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A SEVERE-WEATHER WATCH.  

   SEVERAL OF THE CAMS AND LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS
   SCENARIO WITH STRONGER UH TRACKS TENDING TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.  BY
   14-16...SURFACE TO 800-MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE OF A
   WESTERLY COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD REDUCE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...AND
   ALSO EFFECTIVELY SHIFT THE CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE EAST AND
   OFFSHORE.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 01/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...

   LAT...LON   33757787 34537749 35557699 36377643 36517577 35917527
               35297538 34797595 34507641 33967723 33687754 33757787 

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Page last modified: January 10, 2016
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