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Mesoscale Discussion 17
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0017
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0936 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of northern Missouri and southern/eastern
   Iowa

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 111536Z - 111930Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain, mixing with and changing to sleet and/or
   snow, will continue spreading northeast through mid-day across
   northern Missouri and eastern Iowa. Pockets of freezing rain rates
   up to 0.05 inches per hour will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...A compact shortwave impulse, with a fairly impressive
   water-vapor presentation, is lifting northeast across the mid
   Missouri Valley this morning. In association with this impulse,
   isentropic ascent ahead of it, as well as subtle convective
   enhancement within a mid-level dry slot, is aiding mixed
   precipitation from northeast Kansas to southern Iowa currently. As a
   cold front continues to accelerate east, rapidly falling low-level
   temperatures will continue to aid a transition from rain to freezing
   rain and sleet across the region.

   Larger depressions in KDMX CC data (suggesting incomplete melting
   aloft with larger hydrometeors) likely signal that the thermal
   profile is favoring ice pellets along the I-35 corridor in far
   southern Iowa. Farther east (directly behind the front), more
   complete melting aloft and warmer low-level temperatures are
   favoring a narrow band of light/moderate freezing rain. As the
   shortwave trough lifts northeast, this precipitation will also
   advance northeast, and rain should then quickly switch to freezing
   rain, eventually mixing with/changing to sleet, over eastern Iowa.
   Minor convective enhancement may yield brief heavier precipitation,
   but microphysical processes and cooling low levels will probably
   favor sleet/wet snow in any such elements.

   ..Picca.. 01/11/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40649104 40039179 39439309 39649402 39819422 40259402
               41209321 41989221 42539138 42359064 41769034 40649104 

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Page last modified: January 11, 2018
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