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Mesoscale Discussion 18
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0018
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0116 AM CST Wed Jan 04 2017

   Areas affected...Northern New Hampshire and much of Maine

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 040716Z - 041315Z

   SUMMARY...A mix of wintry precipitation, including freezing rain,
   sleet, and snow, will continue overnight across parts of Maine and
   New Hampshire. Freezing rain rates could reach 0.05 inch/hour, and
   the snowfall rates may locally exceed 1 inch/hour.

   DISCUSSION...Observational data from area surface observations,
   radar, satellite imagery, and local storm reports indicate a narrow
   band of generally light freezing rain with some sleet is occurring
   across parts of central and Down East Maine and northern NH as of
   07Z, while moderate to locally heavy snow is present across northern
   Maine. As a shortwave trough evident on water vapor satellite
   imagery over northern New England continues moving northeastward
   into Canada, ascent associated with this feature and low-level warm
   air advection will contribute to continued maintenance of freezing
   rain, sleet, and snow potential across parts of Maine through 13Z.

   A surface low analyzed just off the coast of Cape Cod, MA will
   develop northward to the Maine/New Brunswick border around 12Z, and
   strong low-level warm air advection centered around 850 mb will
   contribute to a warm nose aloft, while a cold near-surface layer
   remains at or below freezing. Result will be potential for a narrow
   band of freezing rain and perhaps some sleet across parts of Maine
   through the early morning. This band will shift northward some over
   the next few hours as the shortwave trough and surface low likewise
   develop northward.

   Latest short-term guidance is consistent in showing potential for
   freezing rain rates around 0.05 inch/hour, and a recent local storm
   report from Bangor, Maine recorded 0.15 inch of freezing rain
   accumulation already. Across northern Maine, a band of precipitation
   evident on the KCBW radar is a mix of sleet and moderate to heavy
   snow per dual-pol CC data. The snow band will have the potential to
   produce snowfall rates locally in excess of 1 inch/hour. The highest
   freezing rain and snowfall rates should begin to diminish beyond
   12-13Z as the strongest lift moves northward into Canada.

   ..Gleason.. 01/04/2017


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

   LAT...LON   45276711 44766899 44067046 43787108 43807160 44347152
               45277120 45847050 46707011 47536922 47396811 47056767
               45756764 45606733 45276711 

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Page last modified: January 04, 2017
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