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Mesoscale Discussion 18
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0018
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN AL ...NWRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 040154Z - 040300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS
   EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA
   THROUGH 06Z. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUST IS
   POSSIBLE...MOST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AND A WATCH
   IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDED FROM MARSHALL COUNTY AL GENLY
   SWD THROUGH THE BIRMINGHAM AREA AND INTO PERRY COUNTY AT 0150Z.
   LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY
   /MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG/ ACROSS THE REMAINING ALABAMA PORTION OF THE
   DOWNSTREAM AREA DIMINISHING FARTHER EAST. ALTHOUGH NO RECENT GUSTS
   TO SVR LEVELS HAVE BEEN REPORTED...THE LINE REMAINS CAPABLE OF 40 TO
   50 MPH GUSTS WITH ANY LOCALIZED BOWING SEGMENT...AND AN ISOLATED
   NEAR-SVR GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS. WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION AND STRONGER
   FORCING WELL REMOVED FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE THREAT FOR
   ORGANIZED SVR GUSTS APPEARS LOW AND A WATCH DOWNSTREAM IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   ..BUNTING/WEISS.. 01/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   32698608 32528659 32668705 33038705 33408673 33808659
               34508630 34838612 34948575 34958531 34848502 34248495
               33208544 32698608 

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Page last modified: January 04, 2015
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