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Mesoscale Discussion 18
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0018
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0918 AM CST MON JAN 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...TUG HILL PLATEAU OFF LAKE ONTARIO

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 111518Z - 112115Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS
   THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
   SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 IN/HR SHOULD REMAIN COMMON ACROSS
   PARTS OF JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM KTYX DEPICTS MULTIPLE LAKE
   EFFECT SNOW BANDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO CONSOLIDATING INTO AN INTENSE
   BAND OVER LEWIS COUNTY WITH REFLECTIVITY UP TO 40 DBZ AT TIMES.
   BASED ON THE 12Z BUF RAOB AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS...LAKE TEMP TO
   850-MB DELTA-T IS AROUND 23 DEG C AND AROUND 33 DEG C FROM LAKE TO
   700 MB. IN ADDITION...VWP DATA FROM KTYX SAMPLED UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FETCH ACROSS THE LONG
   AXIS OF THE LAKE ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. TOWARDS
   00Z...700-MB WAA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED DOWNSTREAM OF
   AN ALBERTA CLIPPER APPROACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL RESULT
   IN INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...850-MB
   WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BACK. THE NET EFFECT SHOULD RESULT IN
   WANING INTENSITY OF THE SNOW BAND BY AROUND 00Z...A SCENARIO
   WELL-SUPPORTED BY 12Z NAM-NEST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE.

   ..GRAMS.. 01/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43947616 43927541 43927501 43837480 43697492 43627518
               43587546 43577600 43577620 43637644 43897637 43947616 

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Page last modified: January 11, 2016
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