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Mesoscale Discussion 19
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0857 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 040257Z - 040400Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER MONTGOMERY COUNTY AL WILL POSE
   A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO THROUGH 0330Z.
   ADDITIONAL STRONG/SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA THRU 05Z.

   DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL TSTM WILL PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WAS
   MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 KTS ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY COUNTY AL.
   THIS STORM IS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER INSTABILITY
   /MUCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG/...AND THE LATEST KMXX VWP SAMPLED OVER 400
   M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS STORM WILL POSE A
   RISK OF SVR WIND GUSTS AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY
   COUNTY AND POSSIBLY SRN ELMORE COUNTY AL. GIVEN THE EPISODIC
   STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION SINCE 0230Z...A BRIEF TORNADO IS
   ALSO POSSIBLE.

   FARTHER SOUTHWEST...TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN AL WHERE
   MUCAPE WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...500 TO LOCALLY 1000 J/KG...AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WAS AROUND 50 KTS. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...A
   MIX OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THROUGH 05Z.

   TRENDS IN TSTM EVOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...HOWEVER AS
   THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IT IS
   UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL
   RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

   ..BUNTING/WEISS.. 01/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   32078692 32578628 32778565 32718548 32518535 32028548
               31598585 31198664 31048726 31068759 31508783 32088699
               32078692 

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Page last modified: January 04, 2015
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