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Mesoscale Discussion 19
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0019
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0612 PM CST Thu Jan 05 2017

   Areas affected...south central Colorado through north central and
   northeast New Mexico

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 060012Z - 060515Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow bands should become more widespread
   over southern Colorado into northern New Mexico. Snowfall rates
   should increase to over 1 inch per hour with greater rates over the
   higher terrain.

   DISCUSSION...Early this evening, radar data show a frontogenetic
   band with moderate to heavy snow shifting southward through southern
   Colorado. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure centered over the
   central plains will continue developing slowly south tonight and
   maintain an upslope component, especially over the mountains of
   northern Mexico. RAP analysis indicates an upper jet streak over the
   southwest U.S. which will continue east into the southern Rockies
   tonight. Forcing for ascent attending this feature in conjunction
   pre-existing frontogenetic band will promote heavy snow from
   southern Colorado into northern Mexico, especially over the higher
   terrain where snowfall rates will be locally enhanced by orographic
   forcing. In addition, mid-level lapse rates up to 7 C/km in the
   presence of increasing deep ascent is sufficient for weak
   instability and convective enhancement, mainly over the mountains
   where isolated lightning strikes have already been observed.

   ..Dial/Grams.. 01/06/2017


   ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...

   LAT...LON   34390525 35510619 37100686 37830475 36590354 34980391
               34390525 

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Page last modified: January 06, 2017
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