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Mesoscale Discussion 19
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0019
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0204 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of IN...western OH...and Lower MI

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 120804Z - 121400Z

   SUMMARY...The potential for a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet,
   and snow will increase through the early morning hours. Freezing
   rain rates should be greatest across mainly central and northern IN.

   DISCUSSION...07Z surface observations depict a sharp arctic cold
   front extending across southeastern Lower MI into northwestern OH
   and southeastern IN. Due to the shallow nature of this front,
   freezing temperatures at the surface lag the northwesterly wind
   shift by about 70-90 miles. A mid/upper-level trough is depicted on
   water vapor satellite imagery moving eastward across the Upper
   Midwest, and this feature will continue eastward towards the Great
   Lakes region through the early morning hours. Large-scale lift
   associated with this mid/upper-level trough has contributed to a
   broad area of light to moderate precipitation encompassing much of
   southern Lower MI and IN as of 0750Z.

   Multiple observation sites across western/central IN have reported
   light to moderate freezing rain as the predominant precipitation
   type over the past several hours. This freezing rain potential
   should shift into central/eastern IN over the next few hours as a
   residual warm nose centered around 900-850 mb slowly erodes with the
   approach of the mid/upper-level trough. Freezing rain rates around
   0.03-0.05 inch per hour appear likely for at least an hour or two
   across much of central and eastern IN based off of recent surface
   observations and radar trends. Rates may be locally higher (up to
   0.10 inch per hour) in the heaviest showers. As colder low/mid-level
   temperatures move into this region, a west-to-east transition to
   sleet and eventually snow should occur later this morning. Across
   Lower MI, colder low/mid-level temperatures will likely support a
   faster transition to snow, and some heavy snow with rates around 1
   inch per hour cannot be ruled out, mainly in the 11-14Z time frame.

   ..Gleason.. 01/12/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38498671 38448519 39108490 40038433 41918304 42918238
               43238241 43998261 44098297 43978335 43638384 43128499
               42068594 40688662 39528707 38658746 38498671 

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Page last modified: January 12, 2018
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