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Mesoscale Discussion 19
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN GA...SRN SC

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1...

   VALID 111717Z - 111815Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 1 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...QLCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL GA...WITH AN
   ACCOMPANYING PRIMARY THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
   EXPANSION OF THE WATCH HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH WFO FFC TO INCLUDE
   REMAINING PORTIONS OF THEIR CWA. A DOWNSTREAM WW MAY BE NEEDED BY
   18-19Z ACROSS SERN GA AND SRN SC.

   DISCUSSION...QLCS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS CNTRL GA INTO WRN
   SC...WITH NRN SEGMENT ACCELERATING EWD AHEAD OF THE SRN SEGMENT
   ACROSS GA. SLOW FORWARD TRANSLATION SPEED OF THE LINE /ESTIMATED
   NEAR 20-30 KT/ HAS NOT BEEN CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND GUSTS
   THUS FAR...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF THE
   QLCS...AND THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /30-40 KT IN 0-1
   KM LAYER PER REGIONAL VWP DATA/. HOWEVER...AS UPSTREAM WAVE BEGINS
   TO PIVOT NEWD...ACCELERATION OF THE LINE MAY OCCUR THROUGH
   MID-AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED SFC
   TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S F...WITH ADDITIONAL
   DESTABILIZATION LIKELY SUFFICIENT TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN CURRENT
   CONVECTIVE INTENSITY DOWNSTREAM. 

   AS A RESULT...A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND AN ISOLATED THREAT
   FOR A LINE-EMBEDDED OR PRE-CONVECTIVE LINE TORNADO...SHOULD PERSIST
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A NEW WW WILL BE CONSIDERED BY 18-19Z ACROSS
   SERN GA AND SRN SC.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 01/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   32928085 32128119 31438209 31648311 31728382 32308391
               33008347 33458281 33168121 32928085 

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Page last modified: January 11, 2014
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