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Mesoscale Discussion 19
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 AM CST WED JAN 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 130916Z - 131415Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL DEVELOP
   THROUGH 12-14Z ACROSS CENTRAL...EASTERN INTO NORTHERN MAINE.  THESE
   RATES WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING
   MID-LATE MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE ARE
   EXPECTED TO HAVE A 3-4-HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN
   09-13Z AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DRAMATICALLY INCREASES AS A RESULT
   OF A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INTO THIS
   MORNING.  SINCE AROUND 07Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED 
   PRECIPITATION INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   EASTERN HALF OF MAINE.  09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW
   PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR THE COAST OF DOWNEAST MAINE /992 MB/ WITH
   2-HR PRESSURE FALLS OF 3-5 MB FROM SOUTHEAST MAINE INTO NEW
   BRUNSWICK/NOVA SCOTIA.  THESE PRESSURE FALLS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL
   WAA UNDERWAY ACROSS THIS REGION IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS TROUGH IS
   EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS SOME INTO THIS MORNING AS IT
   UNDERGOES FURTHER DEEPENING AND TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS
   MAINE...NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  

   RUN-TO-RUN RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONSISTENT...INDICATING
   STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OCCURRING FOR 3-4 HOURS WITHIN THE
   DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /-12 TO -17 C/ ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
   THIS COMBINED WITH RAP/NAM/GFS SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO GUIDANCE ALL
   SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES /1-3 INCHES PER HOUR/ CAN BE
   EXPECTED THROUGH 12-14Z.

   ..PETERS.. 01/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

   LAT...LON   47216868 47006795 45566762 45046767 44746846 45536952
               46307008 47096962 47216868 

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Page last modified: January 13, 2016
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