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Mesoscale Discussion 20
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0020
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0524 AM CST Fri Jan 06 2017

   Areas affected...Northeast LA...west-central MS

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 061124Z - 061530Z

   SUMMARY...A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected over
   the next several hours across portions of northeast LA and
   west-central MS.

   DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery has shown an increase in
   elevated shower activity within the warm-air advection regime across
   western and central LA. Current surface observations suggest that
   much of this precipitation is evaporating before reaching the
   surface. However, warm-air advection will persist, with the
   resulting mesoscale forcing for ascent and showers eventually
   overcoming the dry mid-levels noted on recent RAP soundings. This is
   expected to occur across portions of northeastern LA and
   west-central MS where surface temperatures are near freezing.
   Wet-bulb effects will likely drop any above freezing temperatures
   below freezing once precipitation begins. The resulting profile will
   then be favorable for freezing rain and/or sleet. 

   A mix of snow and sleet is most likely across northern portions of
   the discussion area (roughly north of I-20) while a mix of freezing
   rain and sleet is expected elsewhere. Additionally, 
   forecast soundings show some elevated instability (mainly above
   800mb) so pockets of heavier precipitation and isolated lightning
   strikes are possible.

   ..Mosier.. 01/06/2017


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32279249 32859159 33169035 32868972 32378979 31799072
               31599160 31799220 32279249 

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Page last modified: January 06, 2017
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