Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 20
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 20 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0020
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0119 AM CST SUN JAN 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 040719Z - 040845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AL AND THE WRN
   FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DUE TO THE
   ISOLATED/SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD
   ACROSS WRN AL TO JUST WEST OF MOBILE WITH SLY WINDS AND SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F...ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE
   TROUGH. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED NEAR THE SFC TROUGH FROM
   SOUTH OF BIRMINGHAM SSWWD TO NEAR BILOXI MS. OTHER SEMI-DISCRETE
   CELLS ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF MOBILE EXTENDING NNEWD TO
   NEAR THE MONTGOMERY AL. MESONALYSIS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR IS
   ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE WITH THE MOBILE
   WSR-88D VWP SHOWING 0-1 KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KT AND 0-3 KM STORM
   RELATIVE HELICITY OF ABOUT 200 M2/S2. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
   SUPPORT STORM ROTATION WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
   TORNADO WOULD BE NEAR THE COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE WHERE THE
   COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST.
   ALTHOUGH A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE...CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINAL FOR
   A MORE SUSTAINED THREAT.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 01/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   29818793 30088641 30838589 31338604 31498633 31538671
               31248726 30478796 30208805 29818793 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 04, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities