MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0020
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/CENTRAL/SRN MO.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 170523Z - 170730Z
   
   BAND OF TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS...ALONG
   AND S OF COLD FRONT DELINEATED BELOW. MRGL SVR HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE
   ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONT...AS CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MO. 
   SOME BACKBUILDING AND/OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE
   OVER WRN OZARKS...CONDITIONALLY EXTENDING THREAT SWD TOWARD AR
   BORDER.  BRIEF/QLCS-ORIGIN TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THIS
   THREAT ALSO IS VERY CONDITIONAL GIVEN LACK OF MORE ROBUST
   MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NEAR SFC.
   
   05Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM LOW OVER N-CENTRAL IL SWD
   ACROSS PORTIONS CALLAWAY/MORGAN/CEDAR COUNTIES MO.  THIS FRONT WILL
   CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL MO...WHILE SRN
   PORTION OF TSTM BAND REMAINS OVER WARM SECTOR.  CONVECTION CONTINUES
   TO STRENGTHEN IN NNE-SSW ALIGNED BAND STRADDLING FRONT AT OBLIQUE
   ANGLE...AND MOVING NEWD 40-50 KT OVER AREAS BETWEEN JLN-COU. 
   LOW-LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPLY FAVORABLY UNSTABLE
   LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AT OR JUST ABOVE SFC IN WARM SECTOR...WITH FCST
   SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING MUCAPE IN 250-700 J/KG RANGE OVER MOST OF AREA.
    EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 50-60 KT AND RELATED STRENGTH OF
   LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
   DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THAT FLOW...AND ISOLATED STG-DAMAGING
   GUSTS TO PENETRATE SHALLOW LAYER OF DIABATICALLY COOLED NEAR-SFC
   AIR.  THAT DIABATICALLY COOLED LAYER ALSO MAY BE OFFSET BY SFC WAA. 
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND RISK FOR EMBEDDED MESOCIRCULATIONS MAY BE
   MAXIMIZED ALONG FRONT WHERE BAND OF TSTMS IMPINGES ON NARROW CHANNEL
   OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER VORTICITY...WITH
   LLJ-ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 250-400 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH
   EVIDENT FROM SGF VWP AND CNW PROFILER.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 01/17/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
   
   LAT...LON   37609413 38139339 38639221 38839116 37849110 36909194
               36669392 37369413 37609413