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Mesoscale Discussion 20
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0020
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0517 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151117Z - 151245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS...WITH ISOLATED LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...WILL
   BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST OF THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY
   MORNING. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...A DEFINED BOWING SEGMENT WAS TRACKING
   EAST/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND AREA NEAR AAF TO TLH...AND
   THE AAF ASOS RECORDED A 48 KT GUST AS THE LINE PASSED. THE AIRMASS
   IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
   JEFFERSON...TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES IS SOMEWHAT POORER...AND
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
   EAST/SOUTHEAST. WHILE SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MINIMAL...A STRONG
   SOUTHERLY LLJ NEAR 50 KT WAS NOTED ON THE TLH VWP WILL AID IN GUSTY
   WIND POTENTIAL NEAR THE COAST. AS STORMS TRACK INLAND...WEAKENING
   SHOULD OCCUR. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LIMITED
   AERIAL AND TEMPORAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   ..LEITMAN/DIAL.. 01/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TBW...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30378405 30388365 30198329 29768306 29358306 29338333
               29848379 29918430 30108445 30318436 30378405 

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Page last modified: January 15, 2016
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