MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0021
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0702 PM CST TUE JAN 06 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL THROUGH N CNTRL GA...WRN SC AND EXTREME SW
   NC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 3...4...
   
   VALID 070102Z - 070300Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 3...4...CONTINUES.
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
   WILL PERSIST FROM SRN AL NEWD THROUGH N CNTRL GA AND EXTREME SW NC
   NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL THREAT IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL AND WW 3
   HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.
   
   A LINE OF STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND
   MESOCYCLONES EXTENDS FROM NE GA SWWD THROUGH SW AL. THE LINE IS
   MOVING EAST AT AROUND 20 KT...WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVE MORE
   RAPIDLY NE. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO DECREASE IN
   INTENSITY...AND LIGHTNING HAS ALSO DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST HOUR.
   A STRONG 50-60 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST IN WARM SECTOR
   WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. THE
   STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL PROMOTE A
   THREAT OF BOWING SEGMENTS...LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLY AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR HAS BEEN
   AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT EAST
   OF THE ADVANCING LINE. THE 00Z RAOB FROM ATLANTA SHOWS VERY LIMITED
   INSTABILITY...5.6 C/KM 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND A PRONOUNCED
   INVERSION PRESENT NEAR 700 MB. THIS ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST IT WILL
   PROBABLY REMAIN DIFFICULT FOR THE SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING
   AHEAD OF THE LINE TO DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY. THE DEEPER CONVECTION
   WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING ALONG
   THE LINE.
   
   IF TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL REINTENSIFY...ANOTHER WW
   COULD BE NEEDED ACROSS SRN AL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS AND
   BULK SHEAR. OTHERWISE...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/07/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...MOB...
   
   LAT...LON   34308235 33388400 32558508 31558626 30598755 30728826
               31368764 32658601 34108419 35108310 35458228 34308235