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Mesoscale Discussion 21
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0021
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 AM CST SUN JAN 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE AL...SW GA...FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 041348Z - 041515Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS SW GA...FAR SE AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
   ENOUGH TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE AL
   WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE ERN FL
   PANHANDLE NNEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF GA. SFC DEWPOINTS
   ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ARE IN THE 65 TO 70 F RANGE WITH A NEARLY
   CONTINUOUS LINE OF STORMS ONGOING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST
   CORRIDOR. THIS SQUALL-LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SW GA AND
   INTO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE SFC WINDS
   ARE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY VEERING
   WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A BRIEF
   TORNADO WITH ROTATING CELL ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. IN
   ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT TALLAHASSEE SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 50
   KT WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
   A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN ACCELERATE
   A BIT FASTER THAN THE LINE ITSELF AND DEVELOP BOWING STRUCTURE.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 01/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29808395 29468460 29488515 29748563 30128569 30808543
               32558421 31918285 29808395 

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Page last modified: January 04, 2015
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