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Mesoscale Discussion 21
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0021
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151353Z - 151600Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
   FLORIDA PENINSULA AT THIS TIME...AND WILL POSE AN ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE AND TORNADO THREAT.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
   ACTIVITY.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN FLORIDA
   PENINSULA...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED/MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION NOTED
   SOUTHWEST OF TBW ATTM.  THE ENVIRONMENT FOSTERING THIS DEVELOPMENT
   IS CHARACTERIZED BY MEAGER INSTABILITY...WITH 250-500 J/KG NOTED
   NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION /SLIGHTLY WEAKER
   INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
   VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...AND
   GIVEN VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP SHEAR VALUES...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND GUST OR TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.  ROTATION NOTED
   IN CELLS SOUTHWEST OF TBW ALSO SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
   WATERSPOUT/TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
   PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY GREATER TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN PENINSULA AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK AND CONTINUED
   LOW-LEVEL ADVECTION RESULTS IN GRADUALLY INCREASING SURFACE-BASED
   INSTABILITY. 

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...ALTHOUGH A WW ISSUANCE
   APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

   ..COOK/THOMPSON.. 01/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   26148222 26498245 27518295 28398289 29238276 29538265
               29538230 29038190 27878161 26848159 26338159 26098176
               26038194 26148222 

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Page last modified: January 15, 2016
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