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Mesoscale Discussion 22
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0912 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 151512Z - 151715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE ACROSS SRN FL MAY SEE A
   RELATIVELY HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE WIND OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO
   TODAY...AND A WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF CELLS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF POSSIBLY
   BEING SEVERE NOW APPROACHING THE FORT MYERS VICINITY WITH BROAD
   MIDLEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND ROBUST LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. AHEAD OF THIS
   ACTIVITY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER
   70S TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 F. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER GRADUALLY WITH TIME...FORCING FOR ASCENT
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN A W-E ORIENTED ZONE
   WHICH IS ALSO ALONG A WEAK PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BOUNDARY.

   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 01/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   26988239 27498021 26677992 26158003 25768161 26338205
               26988239 

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Page last modified: January 15, 2016
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