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Mesoscale Discussion 22
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0928 AM CST SUN JAN 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN GA...N FL...SRN SC

   CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE 

   VALID 041528Z - 041700Z

   SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A
   SLIGHT RISK IN THE 1630Z D1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WITH PROBABILITY OF
   WW ISSUANCE AROUND 50 PERCENT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO
   OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...THE SRN PORTION OF A QLCS FROM CNTRL GA TO THE FL
   PANHANDLE HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZED BOWING STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST
   FEW HOURS OVER SWRN GA. A WIND GUST OF 39 KT WAS MEASURED AT KBGE AT
   1455Z JUST S OF THE TRACK OF THE BOW HEAD THAT IS NOW IN MITCHELL
   COUNTY GA. INTERPOLATED VWP DATA FROM TLH/JGX INDICATE THIS BOW IS
   EVOLVING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1 KM SHEAR OF
   30-35 KT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KT. DESPITE POOR TROPOSPHERIC
   LAPSE RATES NEAR 5.5 DEG C/KM SAMPLED IN THE 12Z TLH RAOB AND
   LIMITED INSOLATION WITH WIDESPREAD DOWNSTREAM CLOUD COVER...MEAN
   MIXING RATIOS AROUND 14 G/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ORGANIZED
   SEVERE RISK INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS SUPPORTED BY
   12Z CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK
   CENTERED OVER SRN GA THROUGH ABOUT 21Z.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 01/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   32828307 33458224 33638146 33488078 33158039 32348062
               30378144 29998226 29718349 29728512 30278469 31228378
               32828307 

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Page last modified: January 04, 2015
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