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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...NRN LA...SE AR...WRN MS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 4...
VALID 130953Z - 131130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 4 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. THE
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 4 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.
DISCUSSION...A SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES A SLOW SOUTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GULF COAST
REGION. THE MOST SUBSTANTIVE RECENT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS
BEEN OCCURRING IN A POST-FRONTAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN TEXAS...WHERE A MOIST SOUTHERLY INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES ABOVE A SHALLOW...BUT DEEPENING SURFACE BASED STABLE
LAYER. GIVEN CAPE EVIDENT IN RAPID REFRESH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...SOME HAIL MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
THESE STORMS...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH THROUGH
11-12Z...AS THE COLD SURFACE-BASED LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS
THE SABINE VALLEY AND TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE...WITH THE
MOST PROMINENT FRONTAL WAVE NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY APPEARS LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING.
..KERR.. 01/13/2013
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31469404 32419347 33249260 34229167 34659134 34839101
34818996 34688862 33638946 32269075 31239179 31469404
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