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Mesoscale Discussion 24
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0024
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1108 PM CST Fri Jan 06 2017

   Areas affected...the northwest FL coastal areas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 070508Z - 070715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms approaching the northwest FL coastal area
   will pose a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado. A
   ww issuance will probably not be needed at this time unless
   convective trends dictate otherwise.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have increased in coverage and intensity
   over the northeast Gulf just offshore of the northwest FL coast.
   Some of the storms have evolved into supercells, are moving
   northeast at around 30 kt, and will move onshore near 06Z. The
   low-level jet has increased, and dewpoints have risen to the mid 60s
   F. Storms are developing in response to isentropic ascent associated
   with a strengthening low-level jet interacting with a warm front
   that is draped across the central FL peninsula. Instability remains
   marginal with MLCAPE aob 500 J/kg, but dewpoints increasing through
   the mid 60S F will support storms rooted near the surface with
   effective storm relative helicity from 250-350 m2/s2 along with 45+
   kt effective bulk shear. The marginal thermodynamic environment
   remains a limiting factor, especially with inland extent from the
   coast. However, this environment will support at least a marginal
   risk for damaging wind and a tornado next few hours as storms move
   onshore.

   ..Dial/Grams.. 01/07/2017


   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29728347 30078324 30008255 29448203 28688197 28168205
               27658266 28408272 28838268 29418314 29728347 

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Page last modified: January 07, 2017
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