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Mesoscale Discussion 24
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0024
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0546 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

   Areas affected...Eastern South Carolina...North Carolina...Southern
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122346Z - 130215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal wind-damage threat appears likely to develop
   this evening from eastern South Carolina northward into southern
   Virginia. The threat is not expected to be great enough to warrant
   weather watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...At the surface, a 1000 mb low is located over the
   western Virginia with a cold front extending southward into the
   southern Appalachians and eastern Georgia. Ahead of the front, a
   moist but weakly unstable airmass is in place with surface dewpoints
   generally in the mid 60s F from near Charleston SC northward to the
   Raleigh/Durham NC area. The WSR-88D VWP at Raleigh shows strong
   deep-layer shear with 0-6 km shear around 65 kt. In addition,
   low-level shear is enhanced with 0-1 km shear near 30 kt and 50 kt
   of flow just above 1 km. This should be enough for a marginal
   wind-damage threat as a line of convection gradually intensifies.
   Instability will be the limiting factor due to MLCAPE values
   generally below 300 J/kg. Even though the line may not be
   accompanied by much lightning, a few strong wind gusts can be
   expected along the leading edge.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 01/12/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...

   LAT...LON   36728035 35338000 33937988 33537922 33817816 34437747
               36347768 37197865 37287976 36728035 

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Page last modified: January 13, 2018
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