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Mesoscale Discussion 24
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SC...SERN GA...NRN FL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...

   VALID 112035Z - 112130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF/WEAK
   TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 5...WITH THE GREATEST
   RELATIVE THREAT LIKELY FOCUSED OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE WATCH. SOME
   THREAT WILL EXTEND S OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA INTO NRN FL...BUT IS
   EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED/MARGINAL.

   DISCUSSION...ONGOING QLCS IS WELL-ORGANIZED ACROSS SRN SC AND
   E-CNTRL GA AS IT PROGRESSES EWD...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK LINE-EMBEDDED
   CIRCULATIONS NOTED AS OF 2015Z. DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY
   UNSTABLE...WITH AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE NOTED IN LATEST
   RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALSO REMAINS
   STRONG INVOF OF A 50-60 KT LLJ. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS APPROACHING
   COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL ENCOUNTER A WEAK NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER
   OBSERVED IN 18Z CHS SOUNDING...WHICH COULD ADVERSELY AFFECT WIND
   GUST/TOR POTENTIAL WITH PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE COAST.
   NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND A
   BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL LIKELY PERSIST PRIOR TO CONVECTION MOVING
   OFFSHORE.

   FARTHER S...A GAP IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS OBSERVED BETWEEN SAV AND
   JAX...WITH A MORE RECENT FIRMING OF LINEAR CONVECTION MOVING INTO
   NRN FL...S OF THE WATCH AREA. DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES ARE STILL
   STRONG HERE...BUT ARE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF
   THE LLJ...WHILE A LEAD UPPER WAVE PASSES WELL N OF THE AREA.
   STILL...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
   EVENING.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 01/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   32957939 32398033 31778093 31118126 30588138 30168139
               29348195 29338261 29498286 30058284 31008253 32128201
               32908112 33148059 33218025 33408003 33327983 33207954
               32957939 

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Page last modified: January 11, 2014
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