MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0132 AM CST WED JAN 07 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW...CNTRL...NE GA INTO THE PIEDMONT OF THE
   CAROLINAS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...
   
   VALID 070732Z - 070930Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES.
   
   WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
   CENTRAL GEORGIA.  IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL BE
   NEEDED INTO THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.
   
   RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND...NOW PROGRESSING
   EAST OF COLUMBUS GA AND OZARK AL...APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE
   OF A LARGER SCALE UPSTREAM TROUGH GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE
   SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  THIS FORCING APPEARS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
   WEAK FRONTAL WAVE...AND RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INTENSIFYING LOW-
   LEVEL JET CORE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARD THE CAROLINA
   PIEDMONT AS IT STRENGTHENS FROM 50+ KT TO 70+ KTS BY 09-11Z.  THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH DAYBREAK LIKELY WILL REMAIN WITH THIS
   FEATURE...AS ASSOCIATED MOMENTUM AND STRONG TO EXTREME LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS
   LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH TORNADOES.  INSTABILITY REMAINS THE 
   PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY...AND A POSSIBLE MITIGATING FACTOR TO SEVERE
   POTENTIAL...DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  BUT...THE
   PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY RELATIVELY WARM AND
   MOIST...AND IS WARMING/MOISTENING ...SO AT LEAST LOW WIND
   DAMAGE/TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE AS LONG AS
   FORCING MAINTAINS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THIS COULD AFFECT THE
   AUGUSTA GEORGIA AREA BY 09Z...BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTH
   CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO THE CHARLOTTE NC AREA BY AROUND 11Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/07/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   32808441 33598354 34268284 34638208 35038116 34648064
               34038086 33468158 32718255 31808374 31318444 31178491
               31498523 32008496 32808441