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Mesoscale Discussion 24
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1003 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 170403Z - 170600Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK
   FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR
   TWO...APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FLORIDA SUN COAST DURING
   THE 07-09Z TIME FRAME.  A WATCH FOR AT LEAST THIS AREA PROBABLY WILL
   BE ISSUED BY 06Z.  MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   FLORIDA PENINSULA MAY ALSO BE INCLUDED AT THAT TIME...WITH AN
   EVOLVING LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SPREAD INLAND AND ACROSS
   THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES

   DISCUSSION...LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE
   SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE SHELF
   WATERS INTO FLORIDA GULF COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN FORT MYERS AND TAMPA.
   IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND ROOTED ABOVE A
   RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...ACTIVITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY
   VIGOROUS AT THE PRESENT TIME.  AND...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
   REMAIN WEAK AS WELL.

   HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST MODEL OUTPUT...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH
   AND HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH...CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
   WITH THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE...NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
   MEXICO...850 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50-70 KT ACROSS
   COASTAL AREAS DURING THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME.  IN ADDITION TO
   CONTRIBUTING TO SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THIS
   LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MORE
   SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NOW PRESENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA
   STRAITS AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  

   ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION LIKELY WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH MAY MATERIALIZE INITIALLY
   AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ALONG A CONFLUENCE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   850 MB JET.  THIS COULD IMPACT COASTAL AREAS AROUND FORT
   MYERS...NORTHWARD TOWARD SARASOTA...PERHAPS TAMPA BAY ...AS EARLY AS
   08-09Z WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE
   STRONG.

   ..KERR/HART.. 01/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27648272 28228184 27958102 27128042 26168049 25288090
               24598237 26188216 26988259 27648272 

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Page last modified: January 17, 2016
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