MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0329 AM CST WED JAN 07 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...ERN GA...SC...PARTS OF ERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...
   
   VALID 070929Z - 071100Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES.
   
   THE NEED FOR A NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.  BUT... SPORADIC
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE WITH A NARROW FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
   BAND THIS MORNING.
   
   LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PAST HOUR IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING NARROW FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND.  THIS MAY
   BE A REFLECTION OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING WITH INITIAL SHORT
   WAVE IMPULSE ALREADY SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS...RESULTING IN INCREASING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ACROSS
   THE EASTERN GULF STATES.  WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE PROGGED TO LAG
   UPSTREAM...ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...THROUGH LATE
   MORNING...POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE GROWTH/
   INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LOW.  HOWEVER...FRONTAL FORCING MAY REMAIN
   SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
   OF SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA BY 16-17Z.  
   
   THOUGH THE RUC MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE 60-70 KT PRE-FRONTAL
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CORE WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE
   LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
   DURING THIS TIME FRAME...LINGERING MEAN FLOW FIELDS MAY REMAIN
   STRONG ENOUGH TO AT LEAST POSE THE CONTINUING RISK FOR LOCALIZED
   STRONG WIND GUSTS.  SOME OF THESE ALONG THE LINE OF CONVECTION COULD
   BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/07/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...TBW...JAX...FFC...
   TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   30218137 29578277 29488352 29918448 31898343 32978272
               34138176 35278032 35347814 33597884 30218137