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Mesoscale Discussion 25
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0131 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 4...

   VALID 170731Z - 170900Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 4 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT IS INCREASING ALONG PARTS OF THE
   WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FL COAST. EXPECT THE GREATEST TORNADO
   POTENTIAL TO EXIST IN THIS AREA THROUGH AROUND 10-11Z.

   DISCUSSION...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH AROUND 10Z
   FROM NEAR TBW SOUTHWARD TO THE WESTERN KEYS AS CELLS AHEAD OF THE
   MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ONSHORE. A 06Z RAOB FROM TBW SHOWED
   A VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
   LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SOMEWHAT
   STABLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER
   AND DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. FURTHER SOUTH
   TOWARD VNC...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND MUCAPE IS
   NEAR 500 J/KG. SOME WARMING AND MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
   STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT EXPECT THE
   GREATEST NEAR-TERM TORNADO THREAT TO EXIST FROM NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
   TBW TO THE WESTERN KEYS. IN FACT...A SUPERCELL OFFSHORE FROM
   SARASOTA COUNTY HAS BEEN SHOWING MODERATE TO STRONG LOW/MIDLEVEL
   ROTATION THE LAST HOUR OR SO...INDICATING WHERE BETTER
   THERMODYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH STRONG SHEAR PARAMETERS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 01/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29068334 29038050 24387955 24388227 29068334 

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Page last modified: January 17, 2016
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