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Mesoscale Discussion 25
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0248 PM CST SUN JAN 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...FAR SERN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 042048Z - 042215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STILL MONITORING FOR WW ISSUANCE N OF WW 3 WITH A CLUSTER
   OF SHOWERS AND SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES JUST E THE RDU AREA THAT
   IS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
   OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF THE RISK SUGGESTS THE PROBABILITY OF
   ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...DESPITE MINIMAL LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...A LOW-TOPPED
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS ACCELERATED IN FORWARD SPEED TO AROUND 45-55
   KT JUST E OF KRDU. VWP DATA AT KRAX HAD SAMPLED INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
   SWLYS...YIELDING STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT EVEN WITH VEERED
   SURFACE WINDS. THE 19Z HRRR HAS FINALLY CAUGHT ON TO THIS CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTER BUT SIMULATES ITS DEMISE BETWEEN ABOUT 22-23Z. WITH SUCH
   WEAK BUOYANCY...THE LONGEVITY OF THIS CLUSTER AND AN ADDITIONAL ONE
   NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER REMAIN UNCERTAIN. BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
   LOW-LEVEL SWLYS...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO
   ARE POSSIBLE EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF LIGHTNING.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 01/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   36617773 36947681 36777590 35957593 34927678 34467796
               34297902 34527925 36617773 

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Page last modified: January 04, 2015
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