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Mesoscale Discussion 26
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0408 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 4...

   VALID 171008Z - 171215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 4 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   SOUTHERN FL THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
   ONSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN FL COAST/WESTERN KEYS.

   DISCUSSION...THE NEAR-TERM TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS
   SOUTHWESTERN FL AND THE WESTERN FL KEYS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
   MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ONSHORE. WHILE STORMS EARLIER WERE
   MAINLY SEMI-DISCRETE...CONVECTIVE MODE HAS NOW SHIFTED TOWARD BOWING
   LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES...A FEW OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
   NOTED OFFSHORE COLLIER COUNTY. THE LATEST VWP FROM BYX AND AMX
   CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SPEED SHEAR...BUT WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM
   HAVE VEERED MORE TOWARD THE S/SW...AND SOME ADDITIONAL VEERING IS
   EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID UPPER
   60S TO NEAR 70 F HAVE RESULTED IN BETTER INSTABILITY THAN FURTHER
   NORTH...WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN CONVECTIVE MODE AND
   EVOLVING SHEAR PROFILES...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW MESOVORTEX
   TORNADOES STILL WILL BE POSSIBLE THE FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
   SOUTH FL.

   ..LEITMAN.. 01/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

   LAT...LON   25578250 26948207 28388161 28958137 28998048 24377954
               24398225 25578250 

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Page last modified: January 17, 2016
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