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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN-SERN IL / WRN IND
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 131809Z - 132145Z
SUMMARY...FROZEN PRECIP PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN WITH
RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOUR PERIOD WILL LIKELY SPREAD
NEWD FROM PARTS OF SRN IL INTO PORTIONS OF WRN IND THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW AN INCREASING SHIELD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM SERN MO NNEWD
INTO THE LOWER WABASH RIVER VALLEY. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED MID-LEVEL ASCENT CONCURRENT WITH A SATURATING COLUMN WILL
ACT TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP THRU THE MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION...ENDING SW TO NE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING LAYER WITH A WARM NOSE AROUND 5 DEG C AT
H85 WHICH WILL FAVOR FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FREEZING RAIN RATES
WILL PROBABLY EXCEED 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOUR PERIOD. VEERING FLOW/COLD
ADVECTION IN THE H85-H7 LAYER WILL SUFFICIENTLY COOL THE COLUMN TO
EVENTUALLY AID IN THE TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW AS PRECIP RATES
DECREASE AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
..SMITH.. 01/13/2013
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...
LAT...LON 37358943 37708937 39918735 40058697 39808679 38538769
37308899 37358943
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