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Mesoscale Discussion 26
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0026
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0258 AM CST Sat Jan 07 2017

   Areas affected...Western FL Peninsula

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 6...

   Valid 070858Z - 071030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 6 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for strong wind gusts and a brief tornado will
   continue across the western FL peninsula for the next one to two
   hours. A downstream watch is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis placed the cold front just
   north of CTY northeastward to just north of JAX. Airmass ahead of
   the front is characterized by temperatures in mid 60s to mid 70s and
   dewpoints generally in the mid 60s, with some isolated low 70s in
   the coastal areas around TBW. As a result, the airmass continues to
   support modest instability and the latest mesoanalysis suggest
   MLCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/KG. Convection continues to develop
   within the confluent flow ahead of the front and several of these
   cells exhibited rotation while offshore. Thus far, these cells have
   weakened as they progress inland, into an environment with more CINH
   and less theta-e. Even so, increasing large-scale forcing for ascent
   will result in slightly cooler mid-level temperatures with the
   resulting reduction in MLCINH favoring a less hostile airmass. Some
   increased moisture advection is also possible as the low-level flow
   veers in response to the surface low deepening off the northeast
   FL/southeast GA coast. However, this more veered flow will result in
   a less favorable low-level shear. Nevertheless, the persistence of
   the strong wind fields coupled with these more favorable
   thermodynamics will result in a continue threat for damaging wind
   gusts and/or a brief tornado for the next hour or two. 

   The limited spatial extent of the favorable thermodynamics and
   persistently more veered low-level flow will likely keep the threat
   confined to the coastal areas and a downstream watch into the
   central FL peninsula is not currently anticipated.

   ..Mosier.. 01/07/2017


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   28508364 29348346 29668293 29488238 28648195 27138185
               26658251 26978303 28508364 

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Page last modified: January 07, 2017
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