MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1209 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN-SERN IL / WRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 131809Z - 132145Z
   
   SUMMARY...FROZEN PRECIP PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN WITH
   RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOUR PERIOD WILL LIKELY SPREAD
   NEWD FROM PARTS OF SRN IL INTO PORTIONS OF WRN IND THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
   SHOW AN INCREASING SHIELD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM SERN MO NNEWD
   INTO THE LOWER WABASH RIVER VALLEY.  A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
   SUSTAINED MID-LEVEL ASCENT CONCURRENT WITH A SATURATING COLUMN WILL
   ACT TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP THRU THE MID
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION...ENDING SW TO NE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SHOW A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING LAYER WITH A WARM NOSE AROUND 5 DEG C AT
   H85 WHICH WILL FAVOR FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE FOR THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FREEZING RAIN RATES
   WILL PROBABLY EXCEED 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOUR PERIOD.  VEERING FLOW/COLD
   ADVECTION IN THE H85-H7 LAYER WILL SUFFICIENTLY COOL THE COLUMN TO
   EVENTUALLY AID IN THE TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW AS PRECIP RATES
   DECREASE AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
   
   ..SMITH.. 01/13/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...
   
   LAT...LON   37358943 37708937 39918735 40058697 39808679 38538769
               37308899 37358943