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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0027
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 AM CST WED JAN 07 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ME...NH...VT...MA...AND FAR EASTERN NY
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 071639Z - 072245Z
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE...NEW
HAMPSHIRE...VERMONT...MASSACHUSETTS AND FAR EASTERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON. HOURLY RATES OF 0.05-0.10 ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER RATES OF 0.20 IN/HR.
A 186 KT JET STREAK AT 250 MB SAMPLED BY THE 12Z BNA RAOB WILL
CONTINUE APPROACHING NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AMPLIFYING
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION...FAVORING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. IN
ADDITION...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG LOW LVL WAA
BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS VT/NH INTO ME...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION RATES. AT THE SURFACE...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL
CONTINUE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...MAINTAINING SURFACE WIND
TRAJECTORIES PARALLEL TO SHORELINE AND ALLOWING SUBFREEZING AIRMASS
TO PERSIST.
ATOP THE COLD SFC AIRMASS...ELEVATED WARM NOSE WILL ADVANCE NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS MA AND
SOUTHERN VT/NH...AND THEN SOUTHERN/EASTERN ME BETWEEN 21-00Z. WHILE
A SNOW/SLEET MIX MAY INITIALLY BE OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL NH AND
ME...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FREEZING
RAIN...WITH THE GREATEST HOURLY RATES /0.10 IN PER HR/ OVER SOUTHERN
VT/NH INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN ME. CLOSER TO THE COAST...LOCALLY HIGHER
RATES OF 0.20 IN/HR MAY BE OBSERVED.
..GARNER.. 01/07/2009
...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...
LAT...LON 44536714 44166828 43626952 43007069 42377172 42147250
42187343 42557436 43917462 44787385 45007322 45127156
45237139 45766976 46106878 45966781 45106696 44536714
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