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Mesoscale Discussion 27
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0027
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0538 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FLORIDA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 4...

   VALID 171138Z - 171315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 4 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FL THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z. A LOCAL EXTENSION IN
   TIME FOR TORNADO WATCH 4 MAY BE NEEDED IF STORMS HAVE NOT MOVED
   OFFSHORE BY 13Z.

   DISCUSSION...THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE
   OKEECHOBEE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NEAR KEY WEST AT 1130Z THIS MORNING
   WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT AROUND 50 KT. THIS
   WILL BRING THE LINE TO VERY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST AROUND 13Z
   WHEN TORNADO WATCH 4 IS SET TO EXPIRE. GIVEN THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC
   AND KINEMATIC PARAMETERS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE LINE
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG/DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO
   THREAT...A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTH FL IN THE MIAMI AND KEY WEST CWA/S
   MAY NEED A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME THROUGH 14Z. THEREAFTER...STORMS
   SHOULD BE OFFSHORE AND THE THREAT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE
   CONVECTIVE LINE.

   ..LEITMAN.. 01/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...

   LAT...LON   26698002 25937987 25557988 25088014 24728053 24428092
               24408189 25538142 26888070 26978039 26968009 26698002 

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Page last modified: January 17, 2016
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