MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...ERN MS...NWRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 132046Z - 132245Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...TSTM STRENGTH AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE...BUT ISOLATED STRONG
   WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING OBSERVATIONS HAVE
   SHOWN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM
   MIDDLE TN SWWD INTO ERN MS AND NWRN AL. RECENT MESOANALYSIS AND
   MODIFIED OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH
   OF THIS AREA...DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEWD
   PROGRESSING 500 MB SPEED MAX /ALSO EVIDENT AT 700 MB/ IS LIKELY
   AIDING THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION WITHIN THIS VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY
   SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. AS A RESULT...A FEW STRONG TSTM ARE POSSIBLE
   WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS A
   LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO. OVERALL...COVERAGE OF STRONG
   STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..MOSIER/BUNTING.. 01/13/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   LAT...LON   37088636 35828741 33778864 32608929 32258911 32438816
               33568720 34048681 36728527 37328528 37088636