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Mesoscale Discussion 29
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0029
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 AM CST WED JAN 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 070621Z - 071145Z

   SUMMARY...BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE/ORGANIZE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH 2+ IN/HR
   SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY...PARTICULARLY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF LAKE
   ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...INCREASINGLY COLD/CYCLONIC TRAJECTORIES WILL ACCOMPANY
   A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO AS OF MID/LATE EVENING. STEADY MID-LEVEL
   COOLING...WITH UPSTREAM -30C 700 MB TEMPERATURES OBSERVED OVER
   ONTARIO/NORTHERN MI...WILL QUICKLY AUGMENT THE INITIALLY MODESTLY
   FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OBSERVED IN THE EARLIER
   /00Z/ BUFFALO NY OBSERVED SOUNDING. MID-LEVEL COOLING/INCREASINGLY
   PREVALENT CYCLONIC TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING
   LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RISING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS /ABOVE 3KM OR
   10K FT AGL/...AND AMPLE LAKE-DRIVEN CAPE OVERNIGHT. 

   FURTHERMORE...INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS/MODEST VERTICAL
   SHEAR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AS ALREADY NOTED FROM MID/LATE
   EVENING DERIVED WIND DATA FROM THE BUFFALO WSR-88D VWP...WILL FAVOR
   ORGANIZED/SEMI-STEADY STATE SINGULAR-BAND DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY
   OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OCCURS
   OVERNIGHT WITH THE LAKE ERIE LEE-SIDE HEAVY SNOW. GIVEN THE
   FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...2+ IN/HR SNOW RATES ARE LIKELY
   OFF OF BOTH LAKES...WITH EVEN HIGHER RATES /POSSIBLY 4+ IN PER HR/
   EXPECTED OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND FAR NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE
   LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOULD PEAK LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
   MORNING PRIOR TO A QUICK SOUTHWARD SHIFT/DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES
   BY AROUND MID-MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

   ..GUYER.. 01/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42367835 42097887 42117933 42267962 42587961 42757930
               42907877 42987839 43127736 43767659 44027619 44147554
               44157530 43917510 43637524 43397559 43397618 43257687
               42767772 42507823 42367835 

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Page last modified: January 07, 2015
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