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Mesoscale Discussion 30
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0030
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0936 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL AR AND S-CNTRL/SERN MO

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 200336Z - 200830Z

   SUMMARY...A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FREEZING RAIN RATES IN
   EXCESS OF 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS APPEAR PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NRN/CNTRL AR THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z.

   DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   OVER OK/NRN TX WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF AR AND MO THIS
   EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MAINLY IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER
   WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ASCENT ACROSS THE MCD REGION. RECENT RADAR
   IMAGERY SHOWS A RECENT INCREASE IN LIGHT TO MODERATE
   PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AR. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM
   LITTLE ROCK AR REVEALED A +5.5 DEC C WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND 900
   MB. A SHALLOW DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL MOISTEN/COOL WITH ONGOING
   PRECIPITATION...AND SFC WET BULB TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL AR COMBINED WITH THE WARM NOSE ALOFT SUGGEST
   LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE THE MAIN P-TYPE
   THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING OVER THIS REGION...WITH FREEZING RAIN
   RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS PROBABLE. AS MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES COOL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
   W...RELATED SLIGHT STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ENCOURAGE
   SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION RATES...MAINLY OVER
   CNTRL AR. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM KLZK DEPICTING SHOWERY/CELLULAR
   REFLECTIVITY CORES MOVING NEWD FROM SWRN AR/SERN OK SUPPORTS THIS
   IDEA...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LIGHTING WILL
   PROBABLY REMAIN SW OF THE MCD AREA.

   FURTHER N ACROSS PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN MO...RECENT REPORTS OF
   SLEET SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL WARM NOSE IS LESS PRONOUNCED THAN
   FURTHER S ACROSS AR...WHICH IS WELL SUPPORTED BY RECENT SHORT-TERM
   MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WED
   MORNING...WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SLEET MORE PROBABLE WITH
   NWD EXTENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AND FREEZING RAIN MORE LIKELY IN
   NRN/CNTRL AR WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING.

   ..GLEASON.. 01/20/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36029444 36729261 37049077 37229028 37118999 37068941
               35779004 34999074 34869200 34779326 35119396 36029444 

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Page last modified: January 20, 2016
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