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Mesoscale Discussion 30
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0030
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CST Mon Jan 09 2017

   Areas affected...Coastal CA/OR border area

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092249Z - 100015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind gust might occur as a narrow line
   of storms likely reaches the coast between 00-01Z.

   DISCUSSION...Leading edge of a narrow short-line segment is around
   60 miles west of ACV. Recent movement of this line has been at about
   40 kt to the east-northeast. Extrapolation suggests this should
   reach the far northern CA/southern OR coast just after 00Z.
   Substantial veering and strengthening of winds with height per BHX
   VWP data is yielding a rather enlarged hodograph with 0-3 km shear
   near 50 kt. This should support weak, broad updraft rotation amid
   scant buoyancy with MLCAPE only around 100 J/kg. This might result
   in a severe wind gust accompanying the convection as it reaches the
   coast, but activity should quickly wane over the Siskiyou/Klamath
   ranges.

   ..Grams/Broyles.. 01/09/2017


   ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA...

   LAT...LON   42122443 42212396 41952382 41352380 40892405 40982441
               42122443 

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Page last modified: January 10, 2017
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