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Mesoscale Discussion 31
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0031
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0115 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST AR INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
   TN

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 200715Z - 201215Z

   SUMMARY...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM
   FAR NORTHEAST AR INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TN. FREEZING RAIN
   RATES GENERALLY WILL BE AROUND 0.01 INCHES PER HOUR...BUT A FEW
   LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREEZING RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
   CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM AROUND AROUND
   28 TO 31 DEGREES F ACROSS THE MCD AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES LIKELY
   WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT IN WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AS A 50
   KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ NOSES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
   MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB HAS
   LED TO A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR FREEZING RAIN SHIFTING
   EASTWARD FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TN THROUGH 12Z.
   FREEZING RAIN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS COOLER MIDLEVEL AIR
   PUSHES SOUTHWARD AFTER 12-15Z...BUT IS EXPECTED TO THEN TRANSITION
   TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
   FREEZING. THROUGH 12Z...FREEZING RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
   GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AROUND 0.01 IN/HR...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER RATES
   WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF PERIODS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 01/20/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36019045 36178906 36248814 36268739 36198692 36078676
               35818675 35528692 35348714 35278748 35258855 35288957
               35309005 35509053 35709076 35839072 36019045 

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Page last modified: January 20, 2016
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