Mesoscale Discussion 0031
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1142 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of the northern and central FL Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 091742Z - 091945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will move quickly eastward this
   afternoon, posing a threat for severe/damaging winds and a few
   tornadoes. Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1740Z, convection extends in a nearly continuous
   line from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into north FL and
   southern/eastern GA ahead of a cold front. Strong deep-layer shear
   associated with a powerful mid/upper-level cyclone will continue to
   support updraft intensity and organization with this activity as it
   approaches the FL Peninsula over the next couple of hours. A very
   moist low-level airmass is already in place over much of the
   northern/central FL Peninsula, with surface dewpoints generally in
   the mid to upper 60s. Filtered diurnal heating with some cloud
   breaks has allowed for modest boundary-layer destabilization so far,
   even with poor lapse rates/residual capping noted in the 850-700 mb
   layer from various RAP/NAM forecast soundings. While FL remains on
   the southern extent of an enhanced low-level jet, around 50-60 kt of
   south-southwesterly flow near/above 1 km has been estimated from the
   KTBW and KMLB radars. Corresponding 0-1 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 will
   be more than adequate to foster low-level rotation and some tornado
   threat with circulations embedded within the line. Greater potential
   for severe/damaging winds is evident given the mainly linear mode
   expected and strength of the low-level flow. With the ongoing fast
   eastward movement of the line, watch issuance will likely be needed
   for parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula this afternoon.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 01/09/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29478272 29198122 28738090 27728110 26778218 27538281
               28118286 28718275 29148303 29478272