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Mesoscale Discussion 31
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0031
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0909 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

   Areas affected...The Outer Banks area of North Carolina into the
   Tidewater area of southeast Virginia

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 180309Z - 180715Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates in excess of 1 inch per hour, including
   occasional heavier convective bursts, may develop across the North
   Carolina Outer Banks area, possibly into portions of the Virginia
   Tidewater, during the 11 PM to 4 AM time frame.

   DISCUSSION...A significant mid-level trough is forecast to continue
   pivoting east of the southern Appalachians during the next few
   hours.  As it does, models suggest that it may take on more of a
   neutral to negative tilt, accompanied by an increasingly better
   defined lower/mid tropospheric cyclonic circulation center across
   the piedmont through coastal areas.  This appears likely to
   contribute to a consolidating area of upward vertical motion, with
   considerable strengthening by the 05-08Z time frame, centered across
   the Outer Banks area of North Carolina.

   Aided by dynamic cooling, cold advection and melting precipitation,
   thermodynamic profiles near immediate coastal areas are expected to
   cool entirely below freezing, supporting snow or a changeover to
   snow.  Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicate that lift may
   become maximized within the dendritic growth layer for several
   hours, supporting snow rates in excess of 1 inch per hour, in the
   presence of precipitable water between .5 and .75 inches.  At least
   some convective enhancement appears possible leading to occasional
   heavier bursts of snow, before diminishing/spreading offshore after
   08-09Z.

   It is possible similar snow rates could impact portions of the
   southeast Virginia Tidewater, but the most prolonged/heaviest snow 
   appears most likely to the south, across the Outer Banks area
   near/north of Cape Hatteras.

   ..Kerr.. 01/18/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

   LAT...LON   36377656 36697547 34977525 35127595 35307683 36377656 

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Page last modified: January 18, 2018
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