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Mesoscale Discussion 31
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0031
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0513 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

   Areas affected...Western NY AND North Central PA

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 102313Z - 110515Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to continue to develop across
   parts of the central Appalachian Mountains this evening. Ice
   accumulations of around a third of an inch per hour will likely
   occur in the lower elevations of western New York and north central
   Pennsylvania over the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar shows a band of moderate rainfall
   located from the western part of Lake Ontario extending southward
   into northwest Pennsylvania. Ahead of this band, surface
   temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 20s F across much of
   the area from south of Rochester NY to State College, Pennsylvania.
   Model forecasts suggest that the band of rainfall will continue to
   move eastward into the colder air at the surface. Although southerly
   flow will result in some warming of the airmass, sub-freezing air
   will remain in the narrow valleys of the Appalachian Mountains in
   western New York and north central Pennsylvania. This will result in
   the development of freezing rain. The HRRR suggests that the band of
   precipitation will move into the northwestern part of the MCD area
   over the next half hour with freezing rain spreading into the
   central and southeastern part of the MCD area after 01z. Freezing
   rainfall rates are expected to be around a third of an inch per hour
   within the heavier parts of the rain band.

   ..Broyles/Grams.. 01/10/2017


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   40667711 41527655 43157597 43627662 43757775 43577853
               43017885 42057888 41247888 40617847 40487777 40667711 

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