MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0031
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0601 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AL...EXTREME SERN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 140001Z - 140130Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
   TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST THROUGH 03Z.
   
   DISCUSSION...RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
   QUASI-LINEAR/MIXED MODE CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING A NE/SW-ORIENTED SFC
   FRONT IS LIKELY INGESTING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE INFLOW ROOTED NEAR THE
   SFC ACROSS FAR SERN MS. ONE EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WITH A
   WEAK/MODERATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CROSSING WAYNE
   COUNTY MS...AND WOULD CROSS THE AL/MS BORDER SHORTLY AFTER 0005Z
   GIVEN 35-40 KT OF NEWD MOTION IF IT PERSISTS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
   ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS STRUCTURE MAY ALSO POSE A SVR THREAT GIVEN
   OVER 45 KT OF DEEP SHEAR PER AREA VWP DATA. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
   SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 200-350 M2/S2 --
   HIGHEST ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE MCD AREA. HOWEVER...DECREASING
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH TIME WILL SUPPORT A REDUCTION IN LOW-LEVEL SRH
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY OUTPACE THE
   NARROW CORRIDOR OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY FOR SVR STORMS BY
   03Z. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY SVR THREAT BOTH ISOLATED AND BRIEF WITHIN
   A SMALL CORRIDOR.
   
   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 01/14/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   32298711 31208750 30358807 30268888 30378934 31028911
               31758845 32218804 32428759 32298711