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Mesoscale Discussion 32
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0440 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN TX INTO CENTRAL LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 211040Z - 211215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX INTO CENTRAL LA EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
   STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A WATCH IS NOT
   EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
   MORNING ACROSS EAST TX INTO CENTRAL LA IN WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME
   ON THE FRINGES OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR THE UPPER TX AND
   SOUTHWESTERN LA COAST. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION
   /MUCAPE NEAR 500 J PER KG/...BUT STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
   ADVECTED EASTWARD ACROSS TX/LA AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL AID
   IN UPDRAFT ROTATION AND AT LEAST SMALL HAIL PRODUCTION...WITH
   ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. MODEST DEEP LAYER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
   COVERAGE/LONGEVITY OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH...A WATCH IS NOT
   EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   ..LEITMAN/DIAL.. 01/21/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32179543 32389500 32589412 32629325 32539263 32429244
               31919215 31239216 30699258 30579322 30789409 31049485
               31479533 31949551 32179543 

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Page last modified: January 21, 2016
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