MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0846 AM CST MON JAN 14 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...SRN AR...W-CNTRL/NWRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 141446Z - 141845Z
   
   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.02 IN/HR /PERHAPS HIGHER
   BENEATH CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHOWERS/ ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH
   18Z FROM PORTIONS OF NERN TX E-NEWD ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR INTO
   W-CNTRL/NWRN MS. AFTER 18Z...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
   WARM ABOVE FREEZING...BRINGING THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT TO AN END.
   
   DISCUSSION...COMBINATION OF A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING NEWD ACROSS
   NRN TX AND SUBSEQUENT STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS
   AIDING IN A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING OUT OF NERN TX INTO
   SRN AR/NRN LA. THE 12Z RAOBS FROM KSHV AND KFWD ALSO INDICATE WEAK
   MUCAPE VALUES ROOTED FROM 750-600 MB...WHICH WILL FAVOR LOCALLY
   ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER SHIELD OF
   RAIN. SURFACE FREEZING AND WET-BULB ZERO LINES EXTEND FROM NERN TX
   NEWD INTO EXTREME NERN LA...WHILE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER IN THE
   950-700 MB LAYER EXISTS ABOVE THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIRMASS. THIS
   THERMAL STRATIFICATION WILL FAVOR FREEZING RAINFALL THROUGH
   18Z...WITH RATES OF 0.02 IN/HR POSSIBLE /PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER WITH
   CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHOWERS/. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
   THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 18Z...WHICH WOULD
   BRING THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT TO AN END.
   
   ..GARNER.. 01/14/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   32459180 31899437 32219502 32659469 33579188 34209031
               34198937 33618952 32459180