Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 33
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 33 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1059 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 211659Z - 211900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SE TX AND WRN TO CNTRL LA WILL
   INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADOES...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A TORNADO
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1012 MB SFC LOW TO THE
   NORTH OF HOUSTON WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE
   LOW. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL
   LA WITH THE WARM SECTOR LOCATED IN SE TX AND SCNTRL LA. SFC
   DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S F IN CNTRL
   LA TO THE MID 60S F NEAR THE LA COAST. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO
   THE 60S F ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HELPING TO INCREASE INSTABILITY.
   MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF SW
   LA AND ACROSS MOST OF SE TX. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
   FRONT AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
   SFC LOW DEEPENS AND THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS
   THE REGION. THE MID-LEVEL JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR PROFILES WITH THE LAKE CHARLES WSR-88D VWP SHOWING 50 TO 55 KT
   OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES
   NEAR 250 M2/S2 SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLY
   TORNADOES. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD ALSO
   BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR
   WITH ROTATING STORMS OR SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 01/21/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   31599485 30869557 30149578 29539540 29599430 30009265
               30599199 31269192 32059253 31599485 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 21, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities