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Mesoscale Discussion 33
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC...SERN VA

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 140531Z - 140930Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS
   MORNING WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT CORRIDOR EXPECTED ALONG I-95 IN
   NERN NC TO BETWEEN NORFOLK/RICHMOND IN SERN VA. PRECIPITATION RATES
   UP TO 0.10 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED...YIELDING ICE ACCRETION OF 0.02-0.05
   IN/HR.

   DISCUSSION...COOLING IR CLOUD TOPS AND EXPANDING RADAR REFLECTIVITY
   INFER INCREASING ASCENT WITHIN A MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME
   IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EVIDENT OVER THE
   UPSTATE CAROLINAS. SURFACE WET-BULB FREEZING LINE BISECTS THE
   HAMPTON ROADS AREA S/SWWD TOWARDS GOLDSBORO NC. AREA VWP DATA
   CONFIRM MODERATE N/NELYS IN THE LOWEST COUPLE OF GATES WHICH WILL
   MAINTAIN NEAR-SURFACE CAA FROM THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC. HIGHER
   ALOFT...AN ABOVE-FREEZING WARM NOSE /INFERRED BY INTERPOLATED 00Z
   GSO AND MHX RAOBS AND SAMPLED BY AMDAR DATA INVOF OF RIC AND ORF/
   SHOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE FOR AT LEAST A
   50-MILE CORRIDOR TO THE W OF THE LINE. WITH WRN/NRN
   EXTENT...CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE IS LESS WITH A VARIETY OF DIFFERING
   SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE DEPICTING SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN.

   THE MOST PERSISTENT/HEAVIEST CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD EVOLVE
   OUT OF THE EMBEDDED 35DBZ PRECIP AREA EMANATING NE OUT OF THE ROCKY
   MOUNT NC AREA. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY 21Z SREF FREEZING RAIN
   PROBABILITIES /AROUND 90 PERCENT FOR AOA .05 INCHES BETWEEN 06-09Z/
   AND 00Z HI-RES WRF-NSSL/NMM/ARW.

   ..GRAMS.. 01/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   38047667 38157636 38087597 37897571 37647590 37407604
               36837653 36187705 35877735 35817756 35817791 35987810
               36197810 36547795 37507731 37737698 38047667 

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Page last modified: January 14, 2015
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