Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 34
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 34 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0034
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1103 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 211703Z - 211830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL FROM AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL HAS
   DEVELOPED NW OF JACKSON. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST WITHIN A RELATIVELY
   CONFINED AREA ALONG THE BIG BLACK RIVER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
   HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPED OVER WARREN COUNTY MS
   AND IS PROGRESSING ALONG THE BIG BLACK RIVER VALLEY. OBSERVATIONAL
   ANALYSIS PLACES THIS CELL AROUND 30 MILES N OF THE WARM FRONT
   EVIDENT ACROSS CLAIBORNE INTO SRN RANKIN COUNTIES AS OF 17Z. STRONG
   CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN 12Z
   JAN/LCH RAOBS WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE HAIL RISK WITH THIS STORM.
   HOWEVER...THIS CELL WILL PROBABLY WANE IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT HOUR
   OR SO GIVEN A PREDOMINANT CLUSTER MODE AND WEAKER ELEVATED BUOYANCY
   TO THE N/E. A WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY FOR THIS THREAT...BUT WILL
   BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS GREATER
   SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ALONG AND S OF THE I-20
   CORRIDOR.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 01/21/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32609063 32769059 33078995 33158959 33098921 32828920
               32548975 32269029 32119064 32149108 32479107 32609063 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 21, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities