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Mesoscale Discussion 34
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0034
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0632 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of northern and central Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 120032Z - 120630Z

   SUMMARY...Rain and snow will continue to transition to freezing rain
   and sleet, possibly with snow mixed in at times tonight. Freezing
   rain rates will generally be a couple hundredths a hour, for several
   hours tonight.

   DISCUSSION...Areas of rain and snow have begun to transition to
   freezing rain and sleet across the MCD area, most recently noted at
   CAD.  Low level cold advection behind a surface cold front will
   allow temperatures to fall below freezing over the next few hours,
   and wet-bulb temperatures near to below freezing have shifted
   southward over the last hour per 00z mesoanalysis. RAP forecast
   soundings indicate a warm layer between 850-700mb from about 0-2
   degrees C with a sub-freezing layer below this about 1000-2000 ft
   thick. This will support freezing rain and sleet across a relatively
   narrow corridor across portions of northern/central Lower Michigan.
   Hi-res guidance suggest this swatch of frozen precip will persist
   and shift slightly southward with time through at least 06z. Some
   areas may see a brief change to snow toward the end of the event as
   stronger midlevel cold advection spreads over the area later
   tonight, and before precipitation comes to an end.

   ..Leitman.. 01/12/2017


   LAT...LON   44318298 43738371 43458446 43178558 43108631 43238657
               43468662 43828668 44828443 44958359 44878326 44618294

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