MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0034
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF NERN TX...NRN LA...PARTS OF
   S-CNTRL/SERN AR...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/NRN MS...A SMALL PART OF SRN
   MIDDLE TN...FAR NWRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 150551Z - 151145Z
   
   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z
   AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
   
   DISCUSSION...ONGOING MASS RESPONSE ACCOMPANYING A MID-LEVEL
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRACKING NEWD ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS IS
   MANIFEST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SRN LA --
   I.E. TO THE W OF WARM-CONVEYOR RELATED PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM
   SERN LA NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTENSIFIES
   WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OWING TO THE EFFECTS OF THE GLANCING
   IMPULSE...AND AN ENE/WSW-ORIENTED FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION BECOMES
   ESTABLISHED...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF
   N-CNTRL LA AND S-CNTRL AR NEWD INTO NERN MS AND PARTS OF SRN MIDDLE
   TN/FAR NWRN AL BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z.
   
   THE 00Z SHV RAOB DEPICTS DEEP DRY AIR ABOVE THE 800-MB
   LEVEL...YIELDING SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE THREAT FOR
   PRECIPITATION FARTHER W FROM NWRN LA INTO NERN TX.
   HOWEVER...TEMPORAL BACKING OF THE 1-2.5-KM-AGL FLOW PER LEDBETTER TX
   WIND PROFILER DATA -- LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISALLOBARIC
   RESPONSE ACCOMPANYING THE GLANCING IMPULSE -- SUGGESTS THAT SOME
   INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AS FAR W AS FAR
   NWRN LA AND NERN TX BY 11Z.
   
   THE 00Z SHV AND JAN RAOBS DEPICT ELEVATED WARM-LAYER TEMPERATURES
   WELL OVER 3C BETWEEN THE 850- AND 780-MB LEVELS. WITH THESE
   RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION BEING
   REINFORCED BY THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME ATOP SFC WET-BULB
   TEMPERATURES OF 27-32F...DESCENDING ICE CRYSTALS SHOULD COMPLETELY
   MELT BEFORE REFREEZING ON CONTACT WITH THE SFC. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE
   OF THE ANTICIPATED ASCENT...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES OF
   0.05 IN/HR WILL BECOME LIKELY BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z...WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR RATES TO INCREASE THEREAFTER. LOCALIZED RATES TO 0.10
   IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAWN...ESPECIALLY IN ANY CONVECTIVELY
   ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CORES AIDED BY MINIMAL ELEVATED BUOYANCY. THE
   MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THE MOST PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AND HIGHEST
   FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL LIE WITHIN A 40-70-MILE-WIDE CORRIDOR
   CENTERED FROM JUST E OF SHV NEWD TO GLH TO JUST N OF TUP. THE
   FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
   
   ..COHEN.. 01/15/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   32199504 32759452 33759164 35458739 34668795 33738905
               33318985 32949055 32299137 31749298 31769457 32199504