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Mesoscale Discussion 34
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0034
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0858 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND...LONG ISLAND NY...COASTAL NJ

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 220258Z - 220900Z

   SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
   CONFINED TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF NJ NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
   EARLY WED MORNING. ALTHOUGH INTENSITY MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT WITH
   TIME...RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HR SHOULD PERSIST WITHIN THE HEAVIEST
   BANDS. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING SFC WINDS MAY LEAD TO REDUCTIONS
   IN VISIBILITY.

   DISCUSSION...INITIALLY ELONGATED SFC LOW LOCATED OFF THE SRN NEW
   ENGLAND COAST WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN UPSTREAM CYCLONE OFF
   THE NC COAST...WHICH IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AHEAD OF A POTENT
   MIDLEVEL VORT MAX PIVOTING OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE WRN
   EDGE OF A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ORIENTED PARALLEL TO
   THE COAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST HAS SHIFTED EWD...BUT
   SNOWFALL SHOULD PERSIST ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AS SFC LOW AND
   VORT ASSUME A MORE N-NEWD TRACK. SOME LESSENING OF RATES MAY OCCUR
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS ZONE OF MAXIMUM FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS
   WELL NE OF THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PIVOTING WAVE.
   HOWEVER...RATES NEAR 1 INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE...INCLUDING PORTIONS
   OF ERN LONG ISLAND INTO CAPE COD...GIVEN THE HIGH SNOWFALL-LIQUID
   EQUIVALENT RATIOS WITHIN A COLD LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. SFC WIND SPEEDS
   ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS IN RESPONSE
   TO THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE SFC LOW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL
   VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

   ..ROGERS.. 01/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...PHI...

   LAT...LON   41756986 41347050 40827228 40037377 39457426 39327465
               39527473 40087420 40777329 41397241 42157156 42707067
               42087004 41756986 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2014
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