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Mesoscale Discussion 36
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COASTAL AREAS INTO PART OF
   SOUTH CENTRAL TX AND INTO SWRN LA

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 240927Z - 241530Z

   SUMMARY...PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND
   UPPER TX COASTAL PLAINS INCLUDING THE COAST WILL BECOME
   PREDOMINANTLY FREEZING RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH RATES
   OF 0.01-0.03 IN/HR POSSIBLE.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
   FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX /BEXAR TO TRAVIS COUNTIES TO CLL AND UTS INTO
   SWRN LA SHOULD HAVE A MIXTURE OF MAINLY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
   THROUGH THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS FROM AREA
   WFOS INDICATED A MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING THUS FAR
   DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM INVOF THE TX HILL
   COUNTRY EWD THROUGH CLL AND JUST NORTH OF HOU.  FARTHER E...LIGHT
   SNOW HAS BEEN THE MAIN PRECIP-TYPE IN SWRN LA...WHILE INLAND OF THE
   MIDDLE TX COAST VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE HAS OCCURRED TO THE
   W-NW OF CRP-VCT.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
   TX COAST AREAS INCLUDING HOU TO VCT AND CRP WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO
   AND BELOW 32 F BY OR JUST AFTER 12-13Z.  THIS INCLUDES LOCATIONS
   ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
   MULTILAYER CLOUDS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST
   WITH LOWER CLOUDS TENDING TO PRODUCE RAIN/DRIZZLE...WHILE MIDLEVEL
   CLOUDS ARE LIKELY SEEDING THE CLOUDS BELOW WITH GRAUPEL SUCH THAT
   SLEET IS REACHING THE SURFACE AT TIMES.  THESE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED
   TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING WELL INLAND OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TX
   COASTAL AREAS.

   OF ADDED CONCERN ARE THE AREAS FROM CRP-VCT NEWD TO HOU/GLS TO NEAR
   BPT WHERE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP-TYPE
   ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 32 F.  00Z ECMWF/NAM SUGGEST AN
   INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG AND INLAND OF THE MIDDLE-UPPER TX
   COAST THROUGH 12-18Z AS A LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 20-25 KT WHILE VEERING
   TO SLY.  THIS TRANSITION WILL TEND TO FAVOR SOME INCREASE IN THE
   WARM NOSE OF THE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE ATOP THE SUB-FREEZING
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. 
   WHILE FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL TEND TO RANGE FROM 0.01-0.03 INCH PER
   HOUR...EVEN LIGHT AMOUNTS CAN CAUSE PROBLEMS ON SUB-FREEZING
   SURFACES.

   ..PETERS.. 01/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29649425 29179505 28659602 27909718 27919767 27859816
               27889843 28469876 29339853 30319785 30519758 30609695
               30679577 30799459 30799394 30639323 30249303 29889320
               29709394 29649425 

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Page last modified: January 24, 2014
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