Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 36
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 36 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0804 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL VT

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 190204Z - 190700Z

   SUMMARY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
   THIS EVENING...BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
   TONIGHT...WITH SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF 1-1.5 IN/HR.

   DISCUSSION...PER 0130Z REGIONAL WSR-88D MOSAIC...AN EXPANSIVE AREA
   OF MDT TO LOCALLY HVY PCPN IS PROGRESSING NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. A COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE ADIABATIC
   ASCENT AND INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS SUPPORTING THIS LARGE
   AREA OF PCPN...AS THE LOW/MID-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE STRENGTHENS IN
   CONCERT WITH A DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE ANALYZED OVER ERN CT AS OF 01Z.
   AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO NH EARLY TONIGHT...FURTHER ENHANCEMENT
   OF FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS NEAR THE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS
   WILL PROMOTE A BAND OF HEAVY PCPN EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF VT AROUND
   03-06Z...WHICH IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT HI-RES GUIDANCE.

   WHILE PRESENT SFC TEMPS AND FORECAST LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
   APPEAR MARGINAL FOR SNOW...A COMBINATION OF FACTORS /I.E. ENHANCED
   DIABATIC PROCESSES FROM HEAVIER PCPN...COOLING FROM STRENGTHENING
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AND IMPROVED CAA AS THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE
   TRANSITS NORTH THRU NH/ WILL SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD TRANSITION TO
   SNOW. INDEED...KCXX DUAL-POL DATA INDICATE A STEADY DESCENT OF THE
   MELTING LAYER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND A FEW MPING OBS NOW
   REPORT SNOW...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS REASONING. AS
   SUCH...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
   PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED INTERSECTION OF STRONG UPWARD MOTION WITH
   THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1-1.5 IN/HR ARE
   LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL
   VT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MTNS.
   THEREAFTER...THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RESULTANT AREA OF
   HEAVY SNOW WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO QUEBEC LATE TONIGHT.

   ..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 01/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...

   LAT...LON   45057257 45067184 45017152 44777142 44277187 43717228
               43567275 43627284 44797324 45007321 45037298 45057257 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 19, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities