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Mesoscale Discussion 36
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0457 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...A PORTION OF SERN LA NEWD INTO SWRN AND S-CNTRL MS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 6...

   VALID 212257Z - 220000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 6 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...GREATEST TORNADO RISK OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS APPEARS TO BE
   FOCUSED FROM NEAR AND NORTH OF BATON ROUGE TO NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY
   SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON.

   DISCUSSION...22Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A TRIPLE
   POINT 1008MB LOW 30 MI NNW MCB WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED
   NW TO SE AND AN EFFECTIVE/MARITIME FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MOUTH OF
   THE MS RIVER NWWD INTO SERN LA AND NNEWD INTO S-CNTRL MS.  A NARROW
   WEDGE OF RICHER AND PARTIALLY MODIFIED MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOWER 60S IS LOCATED WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR.  VAD WIND TRENDS OVER
   THE PAST 2-4 HOURS AT KDGX SHOW SWLY WINDS INCREASING BY 10 KT IN
   THE 2-5KM LAYER--RESULTING IN A MODEST INCREASE IN HODOGRAPH SIZE
   /150-200 M2 PER S2 0-1 KM SRH/.  AS STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SERN LA
   MATURE AND DEVELOP NEWD WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
   CONVECTIVE LINE...THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOCYCLONE
   DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION WILL PROBABLY INCREASE.  A SUPERCELL
   TORNADO RISK WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AND A DMGG WIND
   THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST BOTH WITH THE SUPERCELLS AND WITH AREAS WHERE
   THE CONVECTIVE LINE SURGES/BOWS.

   ..SMITH.. 01/21/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30799135 31679055 32258986 32238948 31928937 30509067
               30799135 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2016
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