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Mesoscale Discussion 36
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0036
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0942 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of OH...southeastern IN...northern
   KY...western PA...western WV

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121542Z - 121815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms crossing the middle Ohio Valley
   region and vicinity may produce locally strong wind gusts through
   the afternoon hours. A few marginally severe wind gusts cannot be
   ruled out, and the addition of a Marginal Risk area is planned
   across portions of the area and vicinity for the 1630Z Day-1
   Convective Outlook. However, Watch issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...The 12Z soundings at Wilmington OH and Pittsburgh PA
   sampled strong 850-mb southwesterly flow -- on the order of around
   60 kt -- accompanying a LLJ overlying the local area. The related
   return of marginal boundary-layer moisture -- e.g. surface dewpoints
   around the middle 50s -- continues ahead of a sharp cold front
   analyzed from northwest OH to southern IL. As the cold front
   continues to advance into the modestly moist/marginally unstable air
   across the middle OH Valley region and vicinity, and weak
   pre-frontal isentropic ascent continues, bands of showers and widely
   scattered thunderstorms will spread eastward/northeastward through
   the afternoon hours. Convective sustenance has already been noted
   across parts of IN. This activity will likely grow in areal coverage
   and intensity as weak boundary-layer destabilization occurs eastward
   amidst pockets of weak diurnal surface-layer heating. Convective
   momentum transport -- augmented by the frontal circulation -- may
   support locally strong wind gusts. A few marginally severe wind
   gusts cannot be ruled out. Widespread cloud coverage ahead of the
   front will limit boundary-layer destabilization, mitigating a more
   substantial severe risk.

   ..Cohen/Kerr.. 01/12/2017


   LAT...LON   39518578 40368438 41278121 41028013 40348045 39218201
               38368505 38538613 39518578 

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