MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0801 PM CST TUE JAN 08 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL KY THROUGH SERN AND E CNTRL IND THROUGH
   SWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 090201Z - 090330Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION WITH LINES
   OF LOW TOPPED STORMS THAT WILL SPREAD EWD AND NEWD THROUGH NRN KY
   INTO SRN IND AND EVENTUALLY SWRN OH. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
   DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS...REMAINING PARTS OF WW 0009 WHICH
   EXPIRES AT 03Z MIGHT NEED TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER WW THAT WILL
   EXTEND FARTHER NEWD.
   
   THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN LOWER MI SWD
   THROUGH WRN IND...EXTREME WRN KY...WRN TN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES FROM 55 TO
   60 AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ALONG WITH MODEST
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
   PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS LIMITING INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY
   BELOW 500 J/KG...AND THIS WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR.
   HOWEVER...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE OH
   VALLEY TONIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET TO IN
   EXCESS OF 70 KT OVER THE OH VALLEY. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
   WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A LINE OF
   FORCED LOW TOPPED STORMS THAT WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.
   GIVEN VERY STRONG 60+ KT JUST OFF THE SURFACE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
   FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/09/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...
   
   40388324 39248325 37608519 37468701 38808617 40378498