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Mesoscale Discussion 37
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0611 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF BAY...GULF...AND WRN FRANKLIN
   COUNTIES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231211Z - 231415Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS TO MOVE ONSHORE
   COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE SHOULD BE IN GULF INTO WRN
   FRANKLIN COUNTIES.  WATERSPOUTS COULD THREATEN THE IMMEDIATE COAST
   OF BAY COUNTY...THOUGH THE CONFIDENCE FOR THIS LATTER OCCURRENCE IS
   MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO GULF AND WRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES.  THE LIMITED
   SPATIAL COVERAGE AND OVERALL MARGINAL THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO OVER
   GULF/WRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES PRECLUDES THE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...AT 12Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF
   STORMS EXTENDING FROM ERN BAY COUNTY SWWD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
   GULF OF MEXICO /75 NM S PNS/...WITH A FEW DISCRETE STORMS EAST OF
   THE BROKEN LINE SHOWING PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION.  RADAR
   IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED SOME ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROKEN
   LINE...WHILE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS WELL
   INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN AL AND SWRN GA.  

   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR BVE WITH A
   MARINE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
   /APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SE PNS/...WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN REMAINING
   OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SEWD TO THE SOUTH OF BUOYS SG0F1 AND 42036. 
   MEANWHILE...THE DISCRETE STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING AND TRACKING
   NEWD NEAR A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE.

   TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED LOW-LEVEL ROTATIONS HAVE TENDED TO
   WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE COAST OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WHERE
   ONGOING PRECIPITATION IS MAINTAINING A HOSTILE INFLOW ENVIRONMENT
   FOR STORMS TO REMAIN SURFACE-BASED.  IF THE MARINE BOUNDARY CAN
   REACH COASTAL AREAS OF GULF AND/OR WRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES BEFORE THE
   LINE OF STORMS AND CONFLUENCE ZONE EACH MOVE EWD THIS MORNING...THEN
   WATERSPOUTS COULD POSE A THREAT TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 01/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30118565 30178556 30058538 29848515 29818487 29598483
               29538508 29548537 29658550 29838559 29948577 30118565 

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Page last modified: January 23, 2015
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