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Mesoscale Discussion 37
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0529 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS / SWRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 212329Z - 220130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 02Z.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER SERN LA AND BUOYS E OF THE
   MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER INDICATE THE MARITIME FRONT IS ROUGHLY 50 MI S
   OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF MS AND AL.  AS THE BOUNDARY ADVANCES NWD
   THIS EVENING COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH...A MORE FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE VEERING AND
   STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND A MARGINALLY BUOYANT
   AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT 1) ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO MOVE INTO
   THE REGION FROM THE W...AND 2) WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
   THE CONTINENTAL SHELF VICINITY MOVING ASHORE AND POSING A SEVERE
   RISK.  PRIOR TO THE CONVECTIVE LINE PASSAGE OVER THE MOBILE BAY AND
   WRN FL PANHANDLE VICINITY LATER TONIGHT...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SHOW 0-1 KM SRH INCREASING TO AOA 300 M2 PER S2---COMPARATIVELY
   HIGHER THAN VALUES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS
   SUCH...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING
   ONCE STORMS ENCROACH ON THE AREA FROM THE S AND W.

   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 01/21/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30278951 32498881 32108747 30918633 30338629 30278951 

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