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Mesoscale Discussion 37
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0037
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0122 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of PA...Northern Panhandle of WV...and OH

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121922Z - 122145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated/marginal severe-wind risk will exist through
   the afternoon. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Convection continues evolving along a sharp front from
   northwest PA southwestward into southern IN. Surface pressure falls
   around 1.0-1.5 mb per 2 hours are concentrated across north-central
   PA and south-central NY, where low-level ascent is enhanced ahead of
   a northeastward-moving frontal wave. Ascent in proximity to this
   wave, and frontal ascent southwestward along the boundary, will
   combine with modest pre-frontal moisture (surface dewpoints in the
   lower/middle 50s) supporting non-zero/scant buoyancy. This will
   foster the continued eastward/northeastward progression of
   semi-organized, quasi-linear convection including LEWP structures
   through the afternoon. With 50-60 kt of flow sampled around 1 km
   above ground per Wilmington OH and Pittsburgh PA VAD wind profiles,
   convective momentum transport -- enhanced by the frontal circulation
   trailing southwest of the wave -- may support locally strong wind
   gusts. An isolated marginally severe wind gust cannot be ruled out,
   and a 50-kt wind gust was measured during the past hour at the
   Youngstown OH ASOS.

   ..Cohen/Kerr.. 01/12/2017


   LAT...LON   39558378 39928311 41007999 41737793 41687682 41207700
               40417864 39328224 39228351 39558378 

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