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Mesoscale Discussion 38
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0038
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0339 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

   Areas affected...for portions of northeast OK...southeast KS...much
   of southern MO...and southern IL

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 130939Z - 131545Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates of at or above 0.05 inch per 3 hours
   are probable this morning over the MO Ozarks into southern IL. 
   Farther west over portions of southeastern KS into northeastern OK,
   precipitation coverage is forecast to be less widespread but rates
   in localized areas may reach 0.05 inch per 3 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Radar-mosaic imagery around 0930 UTC shows isolated to
   widely scattered showers from south-central OK northeastward into
   the MO Ozarks.  The 06 UTC LMN raob over north-central OK showed a
   sub-freezing layer from the surface to 1 km AGL beneath a warm layer
   with an 850 mb temperature around 8.5 deg C.  Also noted, the
   800-500 mb layer was not saturated but additional moistening in this
   layer is forecast and will support 1) a freezing rain thermal
   profile and 2) an increase in shower coverage during the valid
   period.  Lightning was detected over southwestern MO near KSGF
   beginning around 09 UTC.  Further moistening/lift will combine to
   promote development of additional isolated thunderstorms--where
   rates will be locally enhanced.

   The greatest coverage of 0.05-0.15 inch per 3 hour rates is expected
   over southern MO/IL.  Lower rates and amounts are forecast across
   the OK/KS portion of the discussion area where localized rates of
   0.05 inch per 3 hours may occur, primarily after 12 UTC /6AM CST/.

   ..Smith.. 01/13/2017


   LAT...LON   37298878 36849149 36479471 36179661 36469701 36859700
               37219646 37859465 38318930 38468833 38218798 37708817

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