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Mesoscale Discussion 38
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0155 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN COAST OF FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231955Z - 232200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FL
   NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
   TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT
   SHOULD NOT WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
   PENSACOLA WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO SRN GA.
   THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS MOIST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS
   MUCH OF FL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS IS RESULTING IN WEAK
   INSTABILITY MAINLY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FL THIS AFTERNOON. IN
   ADDITION...A 45 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHEAST OF
   TALLAHASSEE EXTENDING SWWD ABOUT 130 STATUTE MILES OFFSHORE...ALONG
   WHICH THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. THE TALLAHASSEE WSR-88D VWP APPEARS
   TO BE SAMPLING THE LOW-LEVEL JET...WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
   HELICITIES MEASURED TO BE NEAR 230 M2/S2. THIS COMBINED WITH
   INCREASING SFC TEMPS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY INTO THE UPPER 70S F WILL
   CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
   BRIEF SPINUP...MAINLY AS CELLS MOVE ONSHORE. THE POTENTIAL IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE BUT THE
   SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 01/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29388275 29048245 28558239 28408257 28438279 28758288
               28928301 29338347 29648350 29818329 29698304 29388275 

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Page last modified: January 23, 2015
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