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Mesoscale Discussion 38
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR
   NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 220005Z - 220600Z

   SUMMARY...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF
   CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS...AS WELL AS FAR NORTHEASTERN
   LOUISIANA...WITH RAIN SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING
   RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
   AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...SNOWFALL RATES MAY
   APPROACH ONE INCH PER HOUR OVERNIGHT...WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS PRESSURE FALLS
   UPWARDS OF 3 MB/HR ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SIGNALING A RESPONSE
   TO DCVA AS A COMPACT VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATES EWD FROM TX. AS A
   SECONDARY IMPULSE /CURRENTLY NOTED OVER SERN KS IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL
   IMAGERY/ DROPS SWD AND PHASES WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW ALOFT SHOULD FAVOR AN EXPANDING
   DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND NRN LOUISIANA THIS
   EVENING.

   CURRENTLY...SFC TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING FROM
   LITTLE ROCK NORTHEASTWARD. SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
   SWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AS COLD-AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS IN
   TANDEM WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN TURN...RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
   MIXTURE OF WINTER P-TYPES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL INITIALLY EXPERIENCE A MIXTURE
   OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS A RESIDUAL WARM LAYER NEAR 850 MB ENSURES
   MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS ALOFT. THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO SNOW
   FROM WEST TO EAST WITHIN THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PCPN WILL OCCUR LATE
   THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS INCREASING VERTICAL
   MOTION...STRONG CAA...AND COOLING DUE TO MELTING SNOW ERODE THE WARM
   LAYER. PRIOR TO THE TRANSITION...FREEZING RAIN RATES OF A FEW
   HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE LOCALIZED
   SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH ONE INCH PER HOUR AFTER THE TRANSITION
   AS DENDRITIC GROWTH IS MAXIMIZED ALOFT. MOREOVER...FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAK BUOYANCY ALOFT...WHICH COULD FAVOR A
   THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ENHANCING PRECIP RATES.

   ..PICCA.. 01/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33069224 33699309 34399334 34889309 36179111 36308999
               36088971 32929120 32719184 33069224 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2016
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