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Mesoscale Discussion 39
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0039
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN GA...CNTRL/ERN/SRN SC...ERN
   NC

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 282145Z - 290215Z

   SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
   PIEDMONT REGION OF NC/SC/GA TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS
   INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...WHILE PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS
   THE AREA...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
   THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM
   CNTRL GA WSWWD TO COASTAL LA. THIS ACTIVITY LIES WITHIN THE WARM
   CONVEYOR BELT OVER THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD CNTRL/ERN-CONUS
   TROUGH...WITH ASCENT BEING ENHANCED AROUND AN IMPULSE CROSSING THE
   MID MS VALLEY AS PORTRAYED BY RECENT MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. AS
   THE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE FLOW AROUND THE
   TROUGH...STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC ASCENT WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE
   MCD AREA WHILE MODEST SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST ENHANCES WARM
   ADVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT AN
   INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE EVENING
   HOURS...WITH LIQUID-EQUIVALENT RATES 0.02-0.05 INCH PER HOUR
   POSSIBLE.

   SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM PARTS OF CNTRL SC TO
   CNTRL GA...THOUGH SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND MODEST SFC COLD
   ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW 32F DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS AND SUPPORT MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION IN MOST
   LOCATIONS. THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BREED A NARROW
   TRANSITION ZONE FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW. THE 18Z RAOBS
   AT MHX AND CHS HIGHLIGHT A 2.5-6C ELEVATED WARM LAYER CAPABLE OF
   COMPLETE MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS. INCREASING WAA ALOFT
   SHOULD MAINTAIN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
   THE CAROLINAS...YIELDING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN.
   FARTHER INLAND TOWARD THE PIEDMONT FROM CNTRL GA INTO SC AND
   NC...FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...A COOLER PROFILE
   ALOFT WILL MORE LIKELY SUPPORT SLEET...AND PERHAPS SNOW OVER THE
   NWRN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.

   ..COHEN.. 01/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...

   LAT...LON   33657843 32957961 32608083 32538261 32788384 33368340
               34218103 36127715 36257595 35677539 34997583 34617664
               33657843 

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Page last modified: January 29, 2014
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