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Mesoscale Discussion 40
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0040
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1053 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN KY...NRN TN...AND SERN MO

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 220453Z - 221000Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL FURTHER EXPAND ACROSS THE MCD AREA OVER
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH RATES OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
   PER HOUR POSSIBLE. FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW
   LATE TONIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS PCPN EXPANDING FROM
   TN NWD INTO KY...WITH A SECONDARY EXPANSION ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL
   IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MATURING DEFORMATION BAND. AS MID-LEVEL WAA
   INCREASES TO THE EAST OF A DEEPENING LOW ALOFT OVER
   LA/AR...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC
   CIRCULATIONS WILL FURTHER SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE
   MCD AREA. WHILE SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPS ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
   AREA...A WARM LAYER NEAR 850 MB IS ENSURING MELTING OF SNOW ALOFT.
   POLARIMETRIC DATA /I.E. CC AND ZDR/ FROM KHPX SUGGEST LITTLE
   DESCENT/EROSION OF THIS MELTING LAYER...INDICATING THAT FREEZING
   RAIN AND SOME SLEET WILL BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   OVERNIGHT...WITH FZRA RATES OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER
   HOUR POSSIBLE. SLOWLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FZRA/SLEET WILL
   TRANSITION TO SNOW GENERALLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AS THE
   MID LEVELS COOL IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING CAA ALOFT. HEAVIER
   SNOWFALL RATES WILL THEN DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING...AS DEFORMATION
   BANDING SPREADS EWD ACROSS WRN TN/KY.

   ..PICCA.. 01/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35898868 35768963 35859027 36679052 37188884 37318618
               36968421 36408445 36278701 35898868 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2016
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