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Mesoscale Discussion 40
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0040
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1005 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

   Areas affected...Western North TX into western and central OK

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 140405Z - 140900Z

   SUMMARY...Showers producing freezing rain with rates around 0.05
   inch per 3 hours will continue to develop and spread north across
   portions of western North TX into southwest, west, and central OK
   into the overnight.  Locally greater freezing rain rates around
   0.05-0.10 inches per hour will be possible, with stronger showers
   and/or isolated thunderstorms.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in evening surface observations showed
   temperatures across much of western North TX through western and
   central OK were in the upper 20s to around 30 F.  At 03Z, the
   freezing line extended northeast from portions of western North TX
   through extreme south-central to northeast OK.  Since 0130Z, mosaic
   radar imagery indicated areas of showers increasing some in
   coverage, intensity, and longevity in an area from KABI to KSEP to
   southern OK from KFSI to KPVJ.  These showers appear to be
   developing in a region of increasing low-level convergence within
   the nose of a 30-kt south-southeasterly 850-mb jet across west and
   central TX.  Meanwhile, an area of cooler cloud tops moving to the
   north-northeast across this same region likely indicate greater
   upward motion ahead of a shortwave trough located over Far West TX.

   Composite map analysis of 00Z upper air data and recent surface
   observations showed a shallow northward-sloping frontal zone with
   the surface front extending from the Arklatex to DRT, while the
   850-mb front was much farther north from central MO to central and
   southwest KS and the northern TX Panhandle.  Lift will continue to
   increase across the discussion area as the Far West TX trough moves
   toward the north-northeast and the low-level jet strengthens.  These
   factors may aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms, given
   steeper midlevel lapse rates per 00Z soundings at MAF/AMA.  However,
   the aforementioned frontal slope suggests showers should tend to be
   mostly shallow, producing mainly light precipitation rates.

   ..Peters.. 01/14/2017


   LAT...LON   33969966 35669907 36259856 36379821 36439736 36349668
               36219616 35739598 34689677 34249776 33849855 33829914

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