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Mesoscale Discussion 40
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0040
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 240730Z - 241000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO EXISTS DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT TO EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL /NEAR VENICE/
   TO SOUTHWEST FL GULF COAST /IN VICINITY OF NAPLES/ WITH ANY
   WATERSPOUTS THAT REACH THE COAST. GIVEN THE LOW THREAT AND LIMITED
   SPATIAL EXTENT...A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT WARRANTED.

   DISCUSSION...AT 07Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A PRE-FRONTAL QLCS
   EXTENDING SWWD FROM SARASOTA COUNTY THROUGH THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO
   TO APPROXIMATELY 125 NM WNW EYW.  THE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THIS
   CONVECTION TO COASTAL AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST FL IS
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE /MUCAPE 500-900 J PER KG/ WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   AT OBSERVATION SITES ALONG THE COAST NEAR 70 F.  DESPITE THE
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT IS
   SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED ROTATION AS HAS BEEN
   OBSERVED WITH AT LEAST ONE STORM CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE COAST OF
   SARASOTA COUNTY /NEAR 15-20 SM SSE SRQ/.  VWP DATA PER TPA/EYW
   WSR-88D/S AND OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS /EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300 M2
   PER S2/ INDICATED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /GIVEN SLY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS/
   SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION.  THIS IS CONFIRMED BY A PERSISTENT
   LOW-LEVEL ROTATIONAL TRACK WITH THE SARASOTA COUNTY STORM PER
   WDSS-II DATA.

   THE ONGOING...AFOREMENTIONED...LINE OF STORMS SHOULD REACH THE FORT
   MYERS AREA AROUND 09-10Z AND THEN INTO NAPLES AROUND 11Z.  THE
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SPORADIC SUPERCELL STORMS TO POSSIBLY
   PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS FROM OFFSHORE TO NEAR THE COAST SUGGESTS A BRIEF
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY SATURDAY
   MORNING AS THE TSTM ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD.  A MORE STABLE
   ENVIRONMENT FARTHER INLAND SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   FROM AFFECTING LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL AREA.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 01/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27158263 27228242 26898221 26618203 26458178 26158170
               26058183 26298202 26478221 26748239 27158263 

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Page last modified: January 24, 2015
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