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Mesoscale Discussion 41
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0041
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0447 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MA...RI...NERN CT...AND SRN NH

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 241047Z - 241645Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF SERN
   NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2
   IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 10Z...REGIONAL WSR-88D MOSAIC INDICATES AN
   EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF PCPN EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
   INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. MDT-HEAVY PCPN IS BEING AIDED BY A BROAD AREA
   OF FAVORABLE ADIABATIC ASCENT/WAA ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING
   MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITING E/NE FROM THE TN VALLEY PER
   09Z MESOANALYSIS. ADDITIONALLY...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF 4-5
   MB 2-HOURLY PRES FALLS NEAR/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA/JERSEY
   SHORE...LIKELY A REFLECTION OF ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BENEATH A
   DUAL-JET STRUCTURE ALOFT AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH. AS THE CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND
   TRANSITS NE TOWARD 40N/70W...HVY PCPN WILL BE MAINTAINED BY AMPLE
   WAA /EVIDENCED BY LONG...CYCLONIC LOOPING HODOGRAPHS ON KDIX AND
   KOKX VWP DATA/ AND FURTHER ENHANCED BY INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC
   CIRCULATIONS ALONG A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION AXIS TO THE NW OF THE
   LOW.

   1030Z KBOX DUAL-POL DATA INDICATE A CURRENT THERMAL PROFILE
   CONDUCIVE TO SNOW REACHING THE SFC ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
   EVIDENCE OF MIXED PHASE /I.E. MELTING AND RE-FREEZING/ CONFINED TO
   THE SOUTH ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
   CAPE/ISLANDS. LATEST HRRR FCST SOUNDINGS AND RADAR OBS INDICATE
   FURTHER WARMING OF THE LOW-LEVEL PROFILE WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION
   TO MIXED PCPN SE OF A SFZ-BOS LINE BY APPROX 13-15Z. TO THE N/W OF
   THIS LINE...THERMAL PROFILES WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
   CONTINUED SNOWFALL THRU MID-LATE MORNING...ENHANCED BY ADIABATIC
   COOLING FROM INCREASING VERTICAL ASCENT AND DIABATIC PROCESSES FROM
   HEAVIER PCPN. AS STRONG UPWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE JUXTAPOSED
   WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...1-2 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THRU 16Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF ANY BANDING
   STRUCTURE THAT DEVELOPS IN CONCERT WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS.

   ..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 01/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   42907076 43247090 43277152 42947231 42567259 41907255
               41567229 41357174 41477140 42207081 42907076 

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Page last modified: January 24, 2015
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