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Mesoscale Discussion 41
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0041
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...

   VALID 220533Z - 220630Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 7 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLD WIND DAMAGE AND A WEAK TORNADO WILL
   CONTINUE FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND THE
   GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITHIN 50-70 MI OF THE
   COAST.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN COMPLEX
   CONVECTIVE/HYBRID STRUCTURES WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS CYCLING
   ACROSS BALDWIN COUNTY AL AND ESCAMBIA COUNTY FL.  THE UPSCALE GROWTH
   OF THE CONVECTION INTO PRIMARILY A LINEAR SYSTEM IS OCCURRING LATE
   THIS EVENING AS STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS
   THE WEDGE-SHAPED MODIFYING WARM SECTOR OVER THE MCD AREA.  EARLIER
   MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTING ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS /300 M2 PER S2 0-1 KM
   SRH/ HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE KMOB VAD.  DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 OVER S-CNTRL AL TO THE
   LOWER 60S NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE COASTLINE...THE STRONG LOW- TO
   MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DOWNDRAFTS
   CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND A WEAK TORNADO.

   ..SMITH.. 01/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30258787 31068730 31448723 31608678 31358648 30388684
               30258787 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2016
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