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Mesoscale Discussion 41
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0041
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

   Areas of east-central MO...south-central and
   central IL...west-central and central IN

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 140814Z - 141415Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates 0.05-0.10 inch per 3 hours are
   forecast during the late overnight across the middle MS Valley and
   this morning over parts of the Wabash Valley.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 08 UTC shows widely scattered showers
   across the middle MS Valley within a moderately strong belt of
   west-southwesterly flow in the 1-3 km AGL layer.  Surface analysis
   indicates temperatures are at or below freezing from portions of
   southeastern MO and extending to the northeast across south-central
   IL and into southern IN.  The freezing line is forecast to be
   quasi-stationary during the next 6 hours.  Above the near-surface
   layer, temperatures are around 8 deg C at 850 mb--resulting in a
   thermal profile supportive of freezing rain.  Host of deterministic
   model and short-term ensemble guidance suggests showers will
   gradually increase in coverage and rates will slowly intensify
   within a corridor from near St. Louis over the next several hours
   and move eastward along the IL/IN I-70 corridor towards Indianapolis
   by this morning.  Freezing rain rates of 0.05-0.10 inch per 3 hours
   are forecast in areas, especially where the showers exhibit some
   convective characteristics and locally augment rates.

   ..Smith.. 01/14/2017


   LAT...LON   38569211 39799152 40158745 40088625 39738595 39238608
               38528903 37439002 37189074 37439169 38569211 

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