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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0042
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/DOWNEAST ME
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 181635Z - 182030Z
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF ME THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1 TO 2 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY.
MAXIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BECOME CENTERED ALONG WARM FRONT
ACROSS COASTAL ME...DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSIFYING CYCLONE OVER MA BAY
AT 16Z. AN INTENSE BAROCLINIC ZONE /CHARACTERIZED BY A SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OF 45 F OVER 200 NM ACROSS ERN ME/ HAS RESULTED
IN SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL WAA /INFERRED BY LARGE CYCLONIC HODOGRAPHS
IN GRAY AND CARIBOU VAD PROFILERS/ AND SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 1
IN/HR /PER 16Z METARS IN BRUNSWICK ME AND PROVIDENCE RI/. WAA WILL
STRENGTHEN AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY ROUNDING BASE OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
OVER TN VALLEY/. MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE QPF CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE
WITH BOTH GFS/NAM INDICATING PEAK AMOUNTS AROUND 0.50 IN FROM
21-00Z. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS S OF THE US-1 CORRIDOR EAST OF
ROCKLAND...HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS FARTHER INLAND SHOULD RESULT
IN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 IN/HR BECOMING PREVALENT.
..GRAMS/DARROW.. 01/18/2009
...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
LAT...LON 45016699 44576822 43876997 43017080 43237117 43917104
45136978 46056772 45016699
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