Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 43
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 43 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KY/FAR EASTERN TN AND SOUTHERN WV/WESTERN
   VA/WESTERN NC

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 220947Z - 221445Z

   SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH THE
   EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NC/FAR WESTERN VA AND FAR EASTERN
   TN/SOUTHEAST KY...WITH A GRADUAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
   EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS ADDITIONAL
   PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY/WESTERN VA AND SOUTHERN WV. HEAVIER SNOW
   RATES WILL REACH 1-2 IN/HR.

   DISCUSSION...A NEUTRAL-TILT MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND RELATED
   STRONG JET STREAK EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL
   GULF COAST INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH STEADY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
   OCCURRING ACROSS AL EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF 09Z/4AM EST...THE
   SURFACE WET BULB 32F LINE GENERALLY EXTENDS ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER
   AND NEAR/EAST OF THE TN/NC BORDER TO THE SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT.
   INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA WARM ADVECTION/DPVA IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH A COOLING/SATURATING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
   LEAD TO INCREASINGLY PREVALENT/HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE
   EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS. VARIOUS SHORT-TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AMPLE UPWARD MOTION COINCIDENT
   WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP/SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER BETWEEN 500-650
   MB...WHICH IS ATOP A SUB-FREEZING LOWEST 1-2 KM. THIS IS CONSISTENT
   WITH THE WET BULB PROFILES OF REGIONAL 06Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS. AS
   SUCH...THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES SHOULD REACH 1-2 IN/HR BY THE 12Z-15Z
   TIME FRAME /AND BEYOND/ WHILE HEAVIER SNOW EXPANDS
   NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KY/SOUTHERN WV/WESTERN VA.

   ..GUYER.. 01/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37628521 38308220 38117969 37007935 36238101 35268196
               35218334 36208228 36548270 36658564 37628521 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 22, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities