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Mesoscale Discussion 43
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0533 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LONG ISLAND / CAPE COD AND PORTIONS OF ERN MA /
   RI / SERN CT

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 262333Z - 270430Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES 1+ INCHES/HOUR WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
   BETWEEN 01-03 UTC ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AND
   ERN LONG ISLAND.

   DISCUSSION...23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ESTIMATED 994-MB LOW 200
   MI SE ACY AND SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
   COAST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVE-TILT MID-LEVEL TROUGH
   LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WRN ATLANTIC EARLY THIS EVENING. 
   VERY STRONG H5 HEIGHT FALLS /180 M PER 12 HR/ WILL LIKELY OCCUR
   DOWNSTREAM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND
   --LEADING TO A RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW BELOW 980-MB AS IT
   DEVELOPS NNEWD TO THE SE OF SRN NEW ENGLAND.  RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY
   SHOWS A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW MOVING NWWD OVER MARTHA/S VINEYARD WITH
   THIS FEATURE TIMED TO MOVE ASHORE COASTAL RI/MA DURING THE NEXT 1-2
   HOURS.  

   MODELS SHOW THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF SNOWFALL RATES COINCIDENT
   WITH STRENGTHENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR
   ASCENT INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND ERN LONG ISLAND DURING THE 01-03 UTC
   PERIOD.  INITIALLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HOUR WILL BE
   CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF RI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
   MA BUT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP INLAND DURING THE 01-03 UTC PERIOD. 
   IT IS LIKELY THE HEAVIER RATES /2 INCHES PER HOUR OR GREATER/ WILL
   OCCUR BEYOND 04Z CONCURRENT WITH INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
   ASCENT FAVORABLY TIMED WITH STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS OVER SRN
   ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND.

   ..SMITH.. 01/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

   LAT...LON   40757284 41297251 42187098 42167040 41976994 41696990
               41226996 40757284 

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Page last modified: January 27, 2015
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