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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 200414Z - 200515Z
LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO
WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL FL...PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY
27 THROUGH 06Z OR SO.
VIGOROUS MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
THIS EVE WITH AN ACCOMPANYING LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION/ISOLD
TSTMS. SFC ANALYSES DEPICTS A TONGUE OF 55-61 DEG F ADVECTING ONTO
THE WCNTRL CST OF FL FROM FORT MYERS NWD TO TAMPA AND WINTER HAVEN
AHEAD OF THE STORMS...RESULTING IN A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG MUCAPE.
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT AIR MASS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A LINE OF CONVECTION INTO CNTRL FL DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 45KTS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WCNTRL/SWRN CST OF FL WHERE CONVECTION/TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY
ORGANIZE AND GIVE LCL DMGG WIND GUSTS. EVEN HERE THOUGH...FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EFFECTIVE PARCELS WILL BE A COUPLE HUNDRED
METERS OFF THE SFC. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ELEVATED...WITH ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
BRIEF TORNADOES.
..RACY.. 01/20/2009
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 27358354 28878178 27398081 26218242 27358354
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