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Mesoscale Discussion 43
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0043
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0930 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of the TX/OK Panhandles...western
   OK...southwest KS

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 141530Z - 141930Z

   SUMMARY...The risk for freezing rain accompanying showers and
   thunderstorms will spread northward/northeastward through the day.

   DISCUSSION...While water vapor loops indicate the primary upper
   cyclone lagging well to the west of the region -- i.e. centered off
   the Baja Peninsula coast -- peripheral midlevel height falls are
   ongoing across the region. The larger-scale mass response to the
   approach of the cyclone is encouraging a recent uptick in warm
   advection, which has become manifested in clusters of showers and
   thunderstorms developing across West TX. This activity is most
   concentrated within a band from the central TX Panhandle into
   west-central OK, and in clusters southward across the TX South
   Plains. Continued elevated moisture transport and warm advection
   will encourage development of this activity during the next several
   hours, which will subsequently spread northward/northeastward
   through the afternoon.

   Maximum elevated warm-layer temperatures around 8C per Amarillo TX
   and Dodge City KS 12Z soundings imply complete melting of descending
   hydrometeors, while sub-freezing wet-bulb surface temperatures will
   support freezing rain. Freezing-rain rates of 0.02-0.10 in/hour will
   be possible -- highest in convective cores with lightning.
   Occasionally, ice pellets could accompany the strongest convective
   cores, as well.

   Sensible heat fluxes extending downward from the elevated warm 
   layer -- facilitated within precipitation cores -- may eventually
   contribute to sufficient surface warming across parts of the TX
   Panhandle/South Plains for a transition to mainly rain by the
   afternoon. Meanwhile, antecedent lower theta-e within the surface
   layer across areas farther north and east -- into parts of
   west-central/northwest OK, the OK Panhandle, and southwest KS --
   will more likely support sustained ice accumulations in these areas.

   ..Cohen.. 01/14/2017


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37599878 36899860 35449929 34410029 34380140 35110195
               36420185 37570123 37849944 37599878 

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Page last modified: January 14, 2017
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