MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1014 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 200414Z - 200515Z
   
   LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO
   WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL FL...PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY
   27 THROUGH 06Z OR SO.
   
   VIGOROUS MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
   THIS EVE WITH AN ACCOMPANYING LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION/ISOLD
   TSTMS. SFC ANALYSES DEPICTS A TONGUE OF 55-61 DEG F ADVECTING ONTO
   THE WCNTRL CST OF FL FROM FORT MYERS NWD TO TAMPA AND WINTER HAVEN
   AHEAD OF THE STORMS...RESULTING IN A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG MUCAPE.
   MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT AIR MASS WILL LIKELY
   MAINTAIN A LINE OF CONVECTION INTO CNTRL FL DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.
   
   BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 45KTS WILL BE
   ACROSS THE WCNTRL/SWRN CST OF FL WHERE CONVECTION/TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY
   ORGANIZE AND GIVE LCL DMGG WIND GUSTS.  EVEN HERE THOUGH...FCST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EFFECTIVE PARCELS WILL BE A COUPLE HUNDRED
   METERS OFF THE SFC.  THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION
   ELEVATED...WITH ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
   BRIEF TORNADOES.
   
   ..RACY.. 01/20/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
   
   LAT...LON   27358354 28878178 27398081 26218242 27358354