MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO IN NY
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 220600Z - 221030Z
   
   SUMMARY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
   THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A SINGULAR SNOW
   BAND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND ITS IMMEDIATE LEE-SIDE. SNOW RATES MAY
   APPROACH 2 IN/HR ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND PERHAPS IMMEDIATELY
   ADJACENT PARTS OF JEFFERSON/CAYUGA/LEWIS/ONEIDA COUNTIES.
   
   DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME/UPPER TROUGH PREVAILS
   WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A LOW/MID
   LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO
   OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE IN VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
   HOURS. THIS...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-3
   KM...SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SINGULAR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
   BAND THROUGH 09Z-12Z. THIS IS A NOTION THAT IS WELL-SUPPORTED BY
   HIGH-RES DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 00Z
   WRF-NMM/WRF-NSSL. A LONG FETCH/SINGULAR SNOW BAND ASIDE...AMPLE
   VERTICAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS/LAKE-INDUCED CAPE...ALONG WITH A
   RELATIVELY TALL EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 12K FEET PER THE 00Z
   BUFFALO OBSERVED SOUNDING...SUGGEST THAT SNOWFALL RATES MAY AT LEAST
   APPROACH 2 IN/HR IN LOCALIZED AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/22/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...
   
   LAT...LON   43717642 43707588 43637569 43247592 43337676 43717642