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Mesoscale Discussion 44
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...WRN TN...AND
   NRN/CNTRL MS

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 220958Z - 221500Z

   SUMMARY...A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF ERN AR INTO WRN TN/NRN MS AS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
   PRECIPITATION MOVES EWD ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 15Z. HEAVY SNOW
   WITH RATES UP TO 1 INCH/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...09Z SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY RAIN IS OCCURRING
   EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF NRN MS...WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
   ONGOING OVER PARTS OF NERN AR AND WRN TN. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
   CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF CNTRL INTO ERN AR. A SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR
   TCL/BHM AS OF 09Z WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AS THE UPPER LOW
   EVIDENT OVER THE ARKLAMISS LIKEWISE MOVES NEWD THIS MORNING.
   CONTINUED LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAA AROUND THE WRN HALF OF THESE FEATURES
   WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...AND
   THEN TO SNOW THROUGH 15Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AR...THE MO
   BOOTHEEL...WRN TN...AND NRN/CNTRL MS. 

   FREEZING-RAIN RATES OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH/HR WILL BE
   POSSIBLE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE FOR GENERALLY 1-3 HOURS BEFORE THE
   CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. DUAL-POL CC DATA FROM KNQA DEPICTS A
   LOWERING MELTING LAYER WITH TIME...SUGGESTING A TRANSITION TO SLEET
   AND THEN SNOW SHOULD OCCUR BY 11-12Z. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1
   INCH/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS ERN AR INTO
   WRN TN/NRN MS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE TO
   LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN CNTRL/ERN AR. IN ADDITION...SOME
   CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
   MCD AREA...AND AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE IS NOT OUT OF THE
   QUESTION. FINALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLOWLY END FROM W TO E
   AROUND/AFTER 15Z AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORCING MOVES E OF
   THE REGION.

   ..GLEASON.. 01/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34909222 35529205 36389083 36348970 36148858 35198854
               33868893 33118929 32808990 32489079 33749204 34909222 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2016
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