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Mesoscale Discussion 44
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0044
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1027 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of central IN eastward to central OH

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 141627Z - 142030Z

   SUMMARY...Areas of freezing rain are forecast to spread eastward
   across the area through the afternoon hours.

   DISCUSSION...The northern extent of a shield of precipitation
   crossing the OH Valley region -- within an area of low/mid-level
   confluence -- will continue spreading across sub-freezing wet-bulb
   temperatures within the surface layer, through the day. Initial
   saturation of low-level thermal profiles is ongoing from central IN
   to central OH in association with leading weak precipitation, while
   an additional area of precipitation now entering west-central IN
   will spread eastward during the next several hours. The 12Z
   Wilmington OH sounding sampled a maximum temperature in the elevated
   warm layer around 5.5C, which will result in complete melting of
   descending hydrometeors -- which should re-freeze on contact with
   the surface. As a result, freezing rain will be possible through the
   day, with rates around 0.02 inch per hour possible. The lack of
   stronger ascent will likely limit the risk for more substantial
   rates.

   ..Cohen.. 01/14/2017


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   39668605 39908666 40178664 40388592 40408341 40348204
               40058127 39658182 39598463 39668605 

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Page last modified: January 14, 2017
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