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Mesoscale Discussion 44
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1032 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND
   MASSACHUSETTS

   CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 

   VALID 270432Z - 270900Z

   SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...04 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG
   ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC...EXTENDING EASTWARD
   OVER TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ARCTIC
   HIGH...A LOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 STATUTE MILES SOUTHEAST OF
   NEW YORK CITY WAS RAPIDLY DEEPENING /AS EVIDENCED BY 03 UTC 2-HOUR
   PRESSURE FALLS IN EXCESS OF 7MB AT BUOY NUMBER 44008 SOUTHEAST OF
   NANTUCKET/. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A STRONG PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WAS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND WILL ONLY INTENSIFY AS THE
   SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   REGION ARE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS /WITH GUSTS NEARING 50
   KNOTS ALONG THE COAST/ WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

   ADDITIONALLY...STRONG LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC THETA-E ADVECTION AND
   FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF SNOW IN
   EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN THE INCREASING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
   FRONTOGENESIS...BANDING STRUCTURES WITHIN THE BROADER SNOW AREA WILL
   PROMOTE SNOW RATES WELL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...LOCALLY
   APPROACHING 4 INCHES PER HOUR...OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF
   STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND INCREASING SNOW RATES WILL RESULT IN
   BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

   AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA WITH GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
   PROLONGED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND
   NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND NORTHWARD INTO
   THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.

   ..MARSH.. 01/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   41337383 42037347 42597232 42937087 42477023 41786981
               41146995 40767095 40587176 40487261 40477338 40777390
               41337383 

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Page last modified: January 27, 2015
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