|Mesoscale Discussion 44|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018
Areas affected...central KY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 230106Z - 230130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Low-topped mini supercell structures will likely be
short-lived across central KY.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KLVX and KOHX shows several weakly
rotating marginal supercells across central KY as of 0045-0100Z.
The 00Z BNA raob sampled what is likely a regionally greatest
corridor of instability with MLCAPE around 400 J/kg and a lowest 100
mb mean mixing ratio around 9 g/kg. The long and curved low-level
hodograph is favoring quasi-discrete storms but the overall weak
buoyancy coupled with the loss of heating will likely limit overall
thunderstorm intensity and any low risk for localized severe.
Nonetheless, will continue to monitor thunderstorm development
before this activity moves to the east/northeast of the
instability/moisture axis as it moves from the I-65 to I-75 corridor
during the next 1-2 hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 36758572 36898618 37588629 39018492 38858432 38238413
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