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Mesoscale Discussion 45
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...CT...RI...MA...SRN NH AND SERN ME

   CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 

   VALID 270928Z - 271430Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS WITH OCCASIONAL RATES OF 2+ INCHES PER
   HOUR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FROM ERN LONG ISLAND NWD
   THROUGH ERN CT...RI INTO PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN MA. FARTHER NORTH
   SNOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH OCCASIONAL 2+ INCHES PER HOUR
   RATES FROM SRN NH THROUGH ERN MAINE THROUGH 15Z. IMMEDIATELY
   SURROUNDING THE HEAVIEST BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER
   HOUR AT TIMES WILL PERSIST NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 09Z THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS WITH RATES OF 2+
   INCHES PER HOUR HAVE REORGANIZED FROM ERN LONG ISLAND NWD THROUGH
   ERN CT...RI INTO CNTRL/ERN MA AND SERN NH. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS
   ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
   DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ALONG A N-S ORIENTED DEFORMATION AXIS. WV IMAGERY
   AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A COMPACT VORTICITY MAXIMUM JUST SOUTH OF LONG
   ISLAND SITUATED WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
   OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. AS THESE FEATURES CONTINUE NWD...ZONE OF
   STRONGEST ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH SERN NEW ENGLAND
   INCLUDING SERN MAINE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
   SNOW...THE NELY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 70+ KT OVER SERN NEW
   ENGLAND WITHIN GRADIENT ZONE BETWEEN THE NWD-MOVING OFFSHORE SFC LOW
   AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SERN CANADA. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
   IN EXCESS OF 50 KT IN THIS REGION.

   AREA OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY NEAR NANTUCKET APPEARS TO INDICATE A
   HEAVY WET SNOW AS A WARM NOSE ALOFT ADVECTS WWD ALONG THE INTENSE
   LLJ. SOME OF THIS SNOW MIGHT OCCASIONALLY MIX WITH SLEET FROM
   NANTUCKET ISLAND AND POSSIBLY NWD TO ERN CAPE COD...BUT THE
   PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SNOW. 

   WEST OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND FROM NRN NJ THROUGH NEW YORK CITY INTO
   WRN CT AND WRN MA...SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
   LESS THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR.

   ..DIAL.. 01/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   40697362 42287293 44537053 45466813 45106726 44526732
               43306992 41687012 40367216 40697362 

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Page last modified: January 27, 2015
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