MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LAKE ONTARIO COAST AND ADJACENT PARTS OF WRN
   NY
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 221046Z - 221615Z
   
   SUMMARY...A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH EMBEDDED RATES OF
   2-4 IN/HR WILL SHIFT SWD THIS MORNING.
   
   DISCUSSION...TYX 0.5-DEGREE REFLECTIVITY DATA AND IR SATELLITE
   IMAGERY DEPICT A WELL-ORGANIZED...15-20-MILE-WIDE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW
   ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND EXTENDING
   DOWNWIND INTO CNTRL/NRN OSWEGO COUNTY. ECHO TOPS AROUND 10 KFT
   ACCOMPANYING THE DEEPEST CORES ARE CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS THAT DEPICT SIMILAR EQUILIBRIUM-LEVEL HEIGHTS ATOP SHALLOW
   CAPE LAYERS. THE LARGE OVER-LAKE FETCH LENGTH THAT IS ENHANCING THE
   CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALSO LIKELY SUPPORTING EMBEDDED
   2-4-IN/HR SNOW RATES BASED ON ONE-HOUR...RADAR-DERIVED
   LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. SIMILAR RATES ARE EXPECTED
   TO ACCOMPANY THIS SNOW BAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS SNOW:LIQUID
   RATIOS REMAIN AOA 15:1 GIVEN THE AMBIENT VERY COLD AIR MASS.
   
   DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE BAND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
   SHIFT SWD AND IMPACT SRN OSWEGO...NRN ONONDAGA/CAYUGA...AND NERN
   WAYNE COUNTIES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY
   VEERS IN RESPONSE TO ISALLOBARIC FORCING ACCOMPANYING A REGION OF
   MSLP RISES OF 1-2 MB PER 2 HOURS AROUND GEORGIAN BAY AND ADJACENT
   SRN ONTARIO. THE ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS ALIGNING WITH
   THE SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE SWD AS THE FLOW RESPONDS TO
   THESE PRESSURE RISES. THE HEAVY SNOW COULD APPROACH -- BUT MORE
   LIKELY REMAIN N/W -- OF SYR THROUGH 15Z-17Z. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
   STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW RATES...THOUGH
   THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE TOO COLD TO SUPPORT ANY APPRECIABLE
   SUPERCOOLED LIQUID WATER CONTENT WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER THAT WOULD
   YIELD CHARGE SEPARATION CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING.
   
   ..COHEN.. 01/22/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...
   
   LAT...LON   43607623 43577596 43437581 43307587 43227603 43157632
               43167675 43287689 43497651 43607623