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Mesoscale Discussion 45
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0451 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHWEST GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 221051Z - 221215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 7 EXPIRES AT 11Z/6AM EST. AN ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND/BRIEF TORNADO RISK MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE FL
   PANHANDLE BEYOND 11Z...BUT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOWS/MESOVORTICES
   CONTINUES PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN FL
   PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST GA AS OF 1030Z/530AM EST. CONSISTENT WITH
   LIGHTNING/INFRARED-SATELLITE INDICATED CLOUD-TOP TRENDS...THE
   STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL
   PANHANDLE WITHIN 30-50 MILES OF THE COAST WHERE A SOMEWHAT
   WARMER/MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EXISTS. LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS/BRIEF TORNADO WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITHIN A HIGHLY
   SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS PER TALLAHASSEE WSR-88D VWP DATA.
   HOWEVER...AS THE STRONGER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER A
   PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS INLAND /50S F SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS/...THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
   REMAIN RELATIVELY MARGINAL/LOCALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 01/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29488508 30548496 31078469 30938397 30238303 29458359
               29488508 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2016
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