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Mesoscale Discussion 45
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0045
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0124 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

   Areas affected...South-central KS...northwest OK....eastern OK
   panhandle...northeastern TX panhandle

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 141924Z - 142330Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to continue across the region
   with the highest freezing rain rates anticipated across far
   northwest OK and south-central KS. Freezing rain rates in these
   areas may exceed 0.02 inch per hour.

   DISCUSSION...The area of precipitation currently moving across the
   northeastern TX panhandle, eastern OK panhandle, and far
   northwestern OK is expected to continue gradually northeastward as
   warm-air advection persists ahead of the upper low centered near the
   central Baja Peninsula. Precipitation rates within this area have
   reached as high as 0.26 inch an hour (on the BGD ob at 1751Z) with
   numerous observations across the area also reporting ice accretion
   from 0.02 inch to 0.08 inch an hour.

   The airmass into which this area of precipitation is moving (i.e.
   across south-central KS) is currently characterized by temperatures
   in the low 30s and dewpoints in the low teens. Modest mid-level dry
   air was present in the 12Z DDC sounding but persistent precipitation
   into this layer will eventually result in a moist profile supportive
   of surface precipitation. Even with this moist profile, a pronounced
   a warm nose of 6-7 deg C near 850mb will remain, supporting a
   primary precipitation type of freezing rain. Given the dry airmass
   in place, wet-bulb effects at the surface will likely result in some
   modest cooling of the surface temperatures as the precipitation
   persists and/or becomes heavier. The end result will be light to
   moderate freezing rain, with freezing rain rates from 0.02 to 0.05
   inch per hour. Some transient convective cores are also possible,
   with isolated instances of freezing rain rates of 0.10 inch per hour
   possible.

   For areas farther southwest (i.e. the northeastern TX panhandle),
   freezing rain is expected to persist for the next hour or so before
   continue advection of warm air into the region raises surface
   temperatures above freezing.

   ..Mosier.. 01/14/2017


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36840092 37290036 37669975 37899924 38069870 38119852
               38109831 38009804 37729780 37149777 36589792 35969840
               35569882 35209955 34830087 34900169 35460199 36110177
               36840092 

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Page last modified: January 14, 2017
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