MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0540 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN KY/NRN MIDDLE-NERN TN/FAR SWRN
   VA
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 251140Z - 251645Z
   
   SUMMARY...A MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION /LIGHT FREEZING
   DRIZZLE/RAIN...LIGHT SNOW AND/OR SLEET/ IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
   PREDOMINANTLY FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS SRN-SERN
   KY...NRN MIDDLE-NERN TN AND FAR SWRN VA. FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO
   0.05 TO 0.1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z. GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER NRN MIDDLE TN AND POSSIBLY INTO
   SOUTH CENTRAL KY WILL THEN RISE ABOVE 32 F PRIOR TO 18Z RESULTING IN
   THE END OF FREEZING RAIN...THOUGH RAIN SHOULD PERSIST.
   
   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF NRN/ERN TN AND ACROSS KY TO
   FAR SWRN VA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED A MIXTURE OF WINTRY
   PRECIPITATION TYPES INCLUDING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE AND
   LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 11Z. THE GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION RATES THUS
   FAR ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE AIR MASS INITIALLY BEING DRY PER THE BNA
   SOUNDING AT 25/00Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS TN AND KY HAVE BEEN
   RISING SOME OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT FURTHER MOISTENING
   AND COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER VIA EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD
   BEGIN TO OFFSET THIS WARMING. THUS...SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
   18Z...EXCEPT FOR AREAS W OF A CSV-LOZ-20 NW JKL LINE WHERE
   TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE 32 F PRIOR TO 18Z. 
   
   THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG A 40-55 KT SWLY LLJ
   EXTENDING INTO MIDDLE-ERN TN AND SERN KY/SWRN VA AND ASCENT WITHIN
   THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION
   POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/25/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...
   
   LAT...LON   36878752 37408692 37768544 37748339 36978182 36418198
               36148265 35868309 35788398 35868528 36278583 36328712
               36468779 36878752