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Mesoscale Discussion 47
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0047
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0935 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

   Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...northwest Oklahoma...and
   southwest Kansas

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 150335Z - 150930Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain, with embedded thunderstorms, will persist
   overnight in southwest-northeast band from the Texas Panhandle
   across northwest Oklahoma into southwest Kansas.  Freezing rain
   rates of .05 to .15" per hour will be possible, though ice accretion
   rates may be less with surface temperatures of mainly 30-32 F.

   DISCUSSION...A persistent band of freezing rain has been spreading
   northeastward from the Texas Panhandle across northwest Oklahoma and
   southwest Kansas.  Some minor erosion of the cold air mass has
   occurred near the ground, as surface temperatures have warmed about
   1 F over the past three hours within the freezing rain area.  Still,
   temperatures will likely remain at or below the melting point, so
   additional ice accumulation is expected with precipitation rates of
   .05 to .15" per hour.  Unlike the break in precipitation shown in
   recent runs of the HRRR, expect elevated convection to continue to
   develop and spread northeastward across the Texas Panhandle tonight.
   The continued development of precipitation will be supported by warm
   advection on the nose of a gradually strengthening LLJ, with 250-500
   J/kg of MUCAPE to support thunderstorms and locally enhanced
   rainfall rates.  Precipitation coverage should also increase toward
   sunrise as a lead shortwave trough ejects north-northeastward around
   the periphery of the closed low over northern Mexico.

   ..Thompson.. 01/15/2017


   LAT...LON   37470052 37879983 37839841 37699813 37459790 37109796
               36479857 35869957 35380066 35200119 35180147 35340199
               35730200 36370157 37470052 

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