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Mesoscale Discussion 49
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0756 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WV/VA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 221356Z - 221800Z

   SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
   GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WV AND
   WESTERN/CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
   SNOW RATES WILL LIKELY REACH 1-2 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS.

   DISCUSSION...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD
   INTO/ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/JET STREAK CURRENTLY CROSSING THE TN
   VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER BETWEEN
   500-600 MB...THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM ROANOKE VA SAMPLED A
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CONDUCIVE FOR DENDRITIC/AGGREGATE SNOW GROWTH.
   AS INCREASING UVV/S COINCIDE WITH A FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER AND
   SATURATING LOW-LEVEL PROFILES...09Z SREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY
   RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
   EXPAND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WV AND
   WESTERN/CENTRAL VA THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES
   WILL LIKELY REACH 1-2 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS THROUGH THE 18Z-21Z
   TIME FRAME.

   ..GUYER.. 01/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   37628209 38568224 38998066 39367867 38627753 37517790
               36657924 36648054 37328129 37628209 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2016
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