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Mesoscale Discussion 50
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1139 PM CST SAT FEB 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 020539Z - 020945Z

   SUMMARY...A WINTRY MIX WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.  PRECIP RATES SHOULD
   EXCEED .05 IN PER HOUR BY 3 AM.

   DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING...PER RAPID THICKENING OF MID LEVEL
   CLOUDINESS IN LATEST IR IMAGERY FROM SERN NM/FAR WEST TX INTO THE TX
   SOUTH PLAINS.  AIR MASS WAS QUITE DRY AT MAF AT 00Z AND INITIAL
   PRECIPITATION IS SERVING TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY FOR
   HEAVIER PRECIP RATES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LATEST DATA SUGGEST A
   CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY/AREAL
   COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS NELY UPSLOPE FLOW
   PERSISTS.

   WHILE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MAF CWA IT
   APPEARS READINGS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF
   COUNTIES BY 09Z.  FARTHER NORTH ACROSS LBB CWA...ICE PELLETS WILL BE
   COMMON WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES.  GIVEN THE
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL
   ATTAIN SUFFICIENT HEIGHTS FOR LIGHTNING ALONG SERN PORTIONS OF MD
   AREA FROM MAF INTO SERN PARTS OF LBB CWA.  CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
   DEEPENED ACROSS DAWSON/BORDEN COUNTIES WHERE LIGHTNING IS NOW
   OBSERVED.  THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
   LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED 0.10 IN PER HOUR
   WITHIN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION/TSTMS.

   WITH TIME A BAND OF HEAVY ICE PELLETS/SNOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO SWRN
   OK...MOST LIKELY AFTER 09Z.

   ..DARROW.. 02/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33360334 33980217 34140113 34010016 33130010 32780087
               32230219 32320302 32690339 33360334 

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Page last modified: February 02, 2014
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