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Mesoscale Discussion 50
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NRN IND...NRN OH...NWRN PA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 011935Z - 020130Z

   SUMMARY...SNOW RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN LOWER
   MI/NRN INDIANA TOWARD THE LAKE SHORE OF NWRN PA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...SFC LOW IS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS CNTRL IL WITH
   POSITION JUST SOUTH OF BMI AT 19Z.  A WELL-DEVELOPED EAST-WEST SNOW
   BAND...ROUGHLY 150 MI WIDE...EXTENDS NORTH OF THE LOW TOWARD THE WRN
   PART OF LAKE ERIE.  SNOW RATES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD EASILY
   APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR AS WARM ADVECTION/ASCENT BEGIN TO SPREAD
   TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  ADDITIONALLY...COOLER PROFILES ACROSS
   LOWER MI COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW RATES...PER SFC
   TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE LOWER 20S.  LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL
   GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK TO JUST NORTH
   OF IND BY 02/00Z...THEN INTO NERN OH NEAR CAK BY 02/06Z.  HEAVIEST
   SNOW SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THIS PROJECTED TRACK WITH SUBSEQUENT
   HEAVIER RATES SPREADING INTO WRN NY LATER THIS EVENING.

   ..DARROW.. 02/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42588597 42818205 42107942 41188050 40878575 42588597 

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Page last modified: February 02, 2015
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