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Mesoscale Discussion 50
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0050
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0902 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southern NE...northern KS...northern
   MO...southwestern IA

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 151502Z - 152000Z

   SUMMARY...Areas of freezing rain are forecast to develop
   northward/northeastward across portions of the central Plains toward
   the lower MO and middle MS Valley region through the day.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing precipitation from east-central CO eastward
   through central KS and MO lies within a region of weak elevated warm
   advection. As a midlevel cyclone -- presently south of El Paso TX
   per water vapor imagery -- continues advancing eastward and then
   northeastward, a low-level jet over the southern Plains will
   gradually intensify and advance eastward/northeastward. In turn, the
   zone of ascent supporting this precipitation will gradually shift
   northward during the next several hours. Initial areas of
   precipitation crossing southeast NE, northwest MO, and southwest IA
   are contributing to low/midlevel saturation, while the
   aforementioned ongoing precipitation should overspread the area
   within the next few hours, and continue into the afternoon. An
   elevated warm layer (temperature around 6.5C at 850 mb at Topeka per
   12Z sounding) will generally support complete melting of descending
   hydrometeors, which will re-freeze within the sub-freezing surface
   layer. Freezing rain, with rates of 0.02 to locally 0.05 inch per
   hour, will be possible. Somewhat cooler profiles aloft with
   northward extent (e.g., as sampled at Omaha NE at 12Z) may support
   initial instances of sleet from parts of southern NE through the
   lower MO Valley.

   ..Cohen.. 01/15/2017


   LAT...LON   38799711 39380082 40200139 40689930 40849538 40239256
               39229161 38769252 38799711 

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