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Mesoscale Discussion 51
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0051
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0943 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southwest/south-central KS...northwest
   OK...the OK Panhandle...southeast CO

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 151543Z - 151945Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain showers and forecast to be spreading
   northward and northeastward through the afternoon hours.

   DISCUSSION...Modest pressure falls analyzed over the central High
   Plains toward the TX Panhandle reflect the elevated warm-advection
   pattern in place, well to the northeast of an upper low south of El
   Paso TX. The continued eastward/northeastward progression of the
   upper low and related low-level mass response will encourage an
   increase in ascent during the next several hours.

   Ongoing precipitation is spreading northeastward across the area,
   with additional convection (including lightning) developing from
   eastern NM into West TX. As the latter activity spreads
   northward/northeastward through the day, and sub-freezing
   surface-layer conditions are maintained, the risk for freezing rain
   will exist through the afternoon. Freezing-rain rates of 0.03-0.06
   inch per hour are anticipated. Localized higher rates could
   accompany the strongest convective elements -- supported by weak
   elevated CAPE (sampled by the 12Z Amarillo sounding).

   The most likely area of persistent freezing rain is expected to
   affect eastern parts of the OK Panhandle northeastward into parts of
   southwest and south-central KS, though surface wet-bulb temperatures
   may only be marginally sub-freezing in some areas. Farther west,
   into southeastern CO and vicinity, somewhat colder profiles aloft
   may occasionally support sleet.

   ..Cohen.. 01/15/2017


   LAT...LON   39029995 38709783 37709786 36969862 36420006 36560234
               37350252 38290200 38880101 39029995 

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