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Mesoscale Discussion 51
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0051
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0339 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2018

   Areas affected...parts of southern Louisiana into southern
   Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 062139Z - 062345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few small/rotating cells could pose very
   limited/isolated/brief risk for marginal hail, gusty winds or even a
   brief/weak tornado.  Risk should remain well below thresholds for WW
   consideration.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a warm front --
   separating low 70s dewpoint air over the northern Gulf of Mexico
   from inland mid 60s dewpoints -- just south of the south-central
   Louisiana coast.  As a result, an inland shallow/stable boundary
   layer persists, which should continue to largely hinder severe
   potential across the area.

   With that said, deep-layer wind profiles remain sufficient to
   support rotation within any sustained updrafts, and a few rotating
   cells have been noted over portions of the southeast Louisiana
   vicinity over the past couple of hours.  Small hail remains the
   primary risk with these very isolated/rotating storms.  Presuming
   the warm front remains just offshore, any potential for damaging
   winds or a brief tornado spin-up inland will remain low/quite
   isolated at best.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 02/06/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29289296 29869215 30409110 30868968 31008880 30528846
               29718824 28948823 28608895 28809180 29289296 

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Page last modified: February 06, 2018
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