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Mesoscale Discussion 51
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN TX...CNTRL/NRN LA...AND W-CNTRL MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 012028Z - 012200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
   ACROSS ERN TX...CNTRL/NRN LA...AND W-CNTRL MS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
   LIMITED. THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL
   MOVE EWD TO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
   THE AFTERNOON. A SFC LOW ANALYZED ACROSS IL/ERN MO WILL CONTINUE
   SHIFTING EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE
   LOW THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY TO ERN TX. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   HAS BROUGHT GULF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
   NWD INTO ERN TX...MUCH OF LA AND CNTRL/SRN MS.

   AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH OCCASIONAL BOWING/WEAK
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
   THE DISCUSSION AREA AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT ENCOUNTERS A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
   SHOWS BREAKS IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
   INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. 20Z MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE
   WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HAS INCREASED TO 250-500 J/KG...WITH
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KT. THIS COMBINATION OF WEAK
   INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
   STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
   UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW TO MIDLEVEL WIND SHEAR IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK
   LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 02/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33079193 33219065 32368945 31289118 30609328 31269456
               31659395 32179337 32739253 33079193 

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Page last modified: February 01, 2015
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