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Mesoscale Discussion 52
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1216 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8...

   VALID 221816Z - 222015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL FL
   PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON IF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CELLS CAN
   REDEVELOP. THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WRN AND
   NRN PART OF WW 8 AS CONVECTION MOVES ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
   THE WEST COAST OF FL WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL
   AND SRN FL PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS ONGOING ACROSS SRN FL
   WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE. FURTHER TO THE NORTH TO THE NORTH OF
   LAKE OKEECHOBEE...CONVECTION IS SCATTERED WHICH HAS ALLOWED SFC
   TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S F. AS A RESULT...AN AXIS OF
   INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CNTRL
   FL PENINSULA WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE.
   IN ADDITION...STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CNTRL FL
   PENINSULA DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET
   LOCATED IN NRN FL. THE WSR-88D VWP AT MELBOURNE SHOWS 60 KT OF 0-6
   KM SHEAR WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE 1 KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT
   SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF
   CELLS CAN REDEVELOP ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE POSSIBLE.

   ..BROYLES.. 01/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   26178231 26338182 26298166 26418161 26418156 27028153
               27038127 27108125 27108115 27198115 27158082 27148069
               26948060 26967972 28228024 28438021 28768030 29508071
               29468109 29268110 29258137 29378140 29348164 29068162
               28958164 28958191 28528190 28308201 28268205 28188211
               28188263 27888261 27728261 27798273 27868282 28008278
               28108275 28078316 27738312 27388301 26688260 26178231 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2016
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