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Mesoscale Discussion 52
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0852 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND WRN NY...NRN PA..NRN NJ...WRN CT...FAR SW
   MA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 020252Z - 020845Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN NY...NRN PA
   EXTENDING EWD INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
   OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR WITH
   LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH OVER THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   EVIDENT OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SRN AND
   CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. AT THE SFC...A 1000 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER
   SWRN OH WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD
   ACROSS CNTRL OH AND CNTRL PA. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING
   ALONG THE AXIS OF A 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET FROM ERN OH SWD ACROSS
   WV. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD A SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS
   ALREADY LOCATED ACROSS THE MCD AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...ISENTROPIC
   LIFT IS FORECAST TO MARKEDLY INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS
   EWD WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS
   SUGGEST THAT A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS SETTING UP FROM WRN AND SRN
   NEW YORK. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE PREFERRED CORRIDOR FOR THE
   HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
   SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR BUT COULD
   BE LOCALLY HIGHER WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PARTS OF THE BANDS.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...
   CLE...

   LAT...LON   41607914 41877957 42327971 42927930 43307832 43197601
               42617374 42167306 41617295 41217325 40967379 40917487
               41377611 41577758 41607914 

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Page last modified: February 02, 2015
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