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Mesoscale Discussion 53
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 AM CST MON FEB 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NY...NERN PA...VT...FAR WRN
   MA...FAR NWRN CT

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 020900Z - 021500Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW CAPABLE OF 1.0-1.5-IN/HR RATES WILL SPREAD
   ENEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
   PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...SFC LOW PRESSURE AT 996 MB IS ANALYZED BETWEEN
   AKRON/CANTON AND CLEVELAND OHIO...AND WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ENEWD
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN PA AND SRN NY THROUGH THE MORNING WHERE
   2-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS OF 3.0-4.5 MB ARE OCCURRING. IN ADVANCE OF
   THE LOW...ASCENT CONTINUES WITHIN A BROAD WAA REGIME REFLECTED BY
   WINDS STRONGLY VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AS
   SAMPLED BY THE BGM VWP. DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE EXIT
   REGION OF THE LLJ THAT IS ENCOURAGING THIS WAA AND RELATED
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ADVANCE ENEWD IN TANDEM WITH THE TRAJECTORY
   OF THE SFC LOW. WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE AN UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH RELATED DEEP ASCENT NEARING THE SFC LOW.
   RESULTANT CYCLOGENESIS WILL FOSTER STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC
   CIRCULATIONS N OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW.

   THE NET RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PROCESSES WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING
   PRECIPITATION AND SUPPORT ITS ENEWD SPREAD AND INTENSIFICATION
   THROUGH THE MORNING. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
   VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE WILL YIELD SNOW...WITH RATES OF 1.0-1.5
   INCHES PER HOUR ANTICIPATED. RELATIVELY COLDER PROFILES WITH NWD
   DISPLACEMENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA -- ESPECIALLY NEAR AND N OF
   THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE ALBANY NY AREA -- WILL BE
   ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES COINCIDING WITH DEEP
   UPWARD MOTION. THIS IS WHERE HIGHER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS WILL EXIST
   AND THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE ANTICIPATED. SECONDARY SFC
   CYCLOGENESIS S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACK WILL REINFORCE
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH SIMILAR
   SNOWFALL RATES PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

   ..COHEN.. 02/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   44937258 44657216 43477232 41617360 41447521 42297612
               43237625 44387581 44937455 44937258 

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Page last modified: February 02, 2015
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