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Mesoscale Discussion 53
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 AM CST SUN FEB 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...OK...AR

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 021349Z - 021745Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS FROM ERN OK ENEWD ACROSS NRN AR. A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
   RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP FROM SE OK ENEWD INTO
   NCNTRL AR. PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES
   PER HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION FROM
   NORTH TX EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL OK IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY
   LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
   OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...NLY FLOW IS
   PRESENT IN ERN OK AND NRN AR WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO DROP INTO THE
   MID 20S F THIS MORNING. AS THE MORE INTENSE BANDS OF SNOW MOVE FROM
   AREAS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF TULSA OK ENEWD TO FAYETTEVILLE
   AR...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
   HOUR.

   FURTHER TO THE SOUTH FROM MCALESTER OK ENEWD ACROSS THE FORT SMITH
   AR AREA...TEMPS ARE STILL NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AS TEMPS DROP
   BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
   WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DUE TO A WARM LAYER NEAR 850 MB EVIDENT ON 12Z
   LITTLE ROCK SOUNDING. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW AS
   THE COLDER AIR MOVES SWD LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION RATES OF
   0.10 TO 0.20 OF INCH WILL BE LIKELY.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36089126 35539142 35099264 34379574 34429645 34889685
               35829650 36549214 36089126 

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Page last modified: February 02, 2014
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