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Mesoscale Discussion 53
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0053
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

   Areas affected...OK panhandle...western/north-central
   KS...south-central/southeast NE...far northwest MO...extreme
   southwest IA

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 151959Z - 160100Z

   SUMMARY...A large area of freezing rain is expected to persist
   through the afternoon and into the evening. Freezing rain rates from
   0.02 to 0.05 inch an hour are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Large area of light to moderate precipitation
   associated with warm conveyor of the negatively-titled upper low
   centered near El Paso will continue to expand
   northward/northeastward over the next several hours. As a result,
   the area of freezing rain across northeast KS will move into far
   southeast NE during the next hour or two. Surface observation at CNK
   in northeast KS reported 0.05 inches of freezing rain and 0.04
   inches of ice accretion in the past hour, with these rain rates
   expected to continue as the area moves into southeast NE. Another
   area of precipitation across southwestern KS is expected to move
   northward/northeastward into more of west-central KS. Freezing rain
   rates have been lighter here than areas northeastward (generally
   around 0.02 inches per hour) but prolonged nature of the event has
   lead to significant ice accretion. The 18Z observations at RSL and
   GCK reported 0.18 and 0.13 inches of ice accretion, respectively,
   over the past 6 hours.  

   Convectively enhanced area of precipitation across northeast NM and
   the western TX panhandle is expected to gradually move
   northward/northeastward within the warm conveyor, taking it into the
   central/eastern OK panhandle and southwestern KS around 23-00Z.
   Surface temperatures are expected to remain at or just below
   freezing with overall thermal profiles remaining supportive of
   freezing rain.

   ..Mosier.. 01/15/2017


   LAT...LON   37770183 39210116 40249979 40939817 41069712 41039565
               40699459 39639464 39499579 38819759 37279943 36560026
               36630173 37770183 

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